Showing posts with label irish economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label irish economy. Show all posts

Monday, January 05, 2015

Readings on the Irish Economy post-2007: Suggestions welcome

Below is an incomplete list of articles from various sources that I think are important for understanding what is happening in the Irish economy at present.  Suggestions welcome. The podcasts and slides from January 2012's session  February 2013 session  and January 2014 session contain a wealth of information about the Irish economy.

Cormac O'Grada's brilliant non-technical summary of the five major economic crises faced by the Irish state since its formation gives the historical context. A good reference book for the Irish economy is the 11th edition of Economy of Ireland edited by John O'Hagan and Carol Newman. Standard of articles high in general but Jonathan Haughton's history of the Irish economy is particularly recommended. Patrick Honohan's short history of the Irish pound, written just as Ireland entered the single currency, is well-written and informative. In the spirit of "twas ever thus", Moore McDowell's piece on the devaluation of 1492 is an excellent read.

Morgan Kelly's UCD working paper on the Irish credit bubble is a very clear discussion of the collapse. His famous paper predicting the collapse of the Irish housing market is available here For a sense of the details of how Anglo Irish bank's loan book expanded so much during the 2003-2007 period and the subsequent unravelling, see two books by Tom Lyons/Brian Carey and Simon Carswell.  Michael Lewis's Vanity Fair article is one of the most detailed accounts written by someone in the international press.

The currently available documents relating to advice provided to the Department of Finance in the run-up to the bank guarantee are available here 

Patrick Honohan's ESR paper on the the Irish banking crisis, written before he took over as Governor of the Central Bank, is the definitive account of what happened and I believe will be cited in 100 years time when people seek to understand what went on.

One of the main policy decisions taken by the FF/Green government was the creation of a 'bad bank' called NAMA, National Assets Management Agency, to take property development loans out of the banking system. The blog Namawinelake contains extraordinarily detailed accounts of several aspects of the assets being managed by NAMA. Will add more readings on NAMA at a later stage.

Karl Whelan's 2010 article "Policy Lessons from Ireland's Latest Depression" gives the policy context of the period leading up to the economic collapse (thanks to Dan Davis for suggestion).

UCD Politics academic Niamh Hardiman has written a number of pieces on the political and institutional context of the Irish economic crisis. Her JSSISI paper on this topic is here

Philip Lane's article the Irish Crisis (working paper here) (other version here) examines origins of Irish crisis and conclusions for other countries in monetary unions (h/t Rob Farhat). His ESR paper from 2009 on a new fiscal strategy for Ireland is linked here

Morgan Kelly's May 2011 Irish Times article argued that the bailout deal would bankrupt Ireland and the main hope for rescuing the economy was to break out of it. "Cutting Government borrowing to zero immediately is not painless but it is the only way of disentangling ourselves from the loan sharks who are intent on making an example of us. In contrast, the new Government’s current policy of lying on the ground with a begging bowl and hoping that someone takes pity on us does not make for a particularly strong negotiating position."

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi's famous (at least in Ireland) FT article makes the case that Irish taxpayers should shoulder the bank debt as a fair consequence of having their own national bank regulator. His article in Foreign Affairs July 2011 gives a sense of his general view of what caused the euro crisis and might be a good hint as to what has been driving ECB policy.

Constantin Gurdgiev has been a strong critic of government policy throughout the period. An example of his critique is this December 2010 article about the inevitability of an Irish default under the bailout conditions "Instead of resolving the core problem of catastrophic losses within our banking sector and the related problem of the fiscal insolvency of our Exchequer, the ECB/EU/IMF loan created an internationally binding agreement that officially transferred the debts of our private banks onto the shoulders of Irish taxpayers. By doing so, the EU, with the complicity of the Irish Government, has delivered a full-blown contagion across the entire Irish economy." (see also  Debt Restructuring: Orderly, Selective and Unavoidable )

Gurdgiev, Lucey, Mac an Bhaird and Kelly (2011);  "The Irish Economy: Three Strikes and You’re Out?""We examine the three interlinked Irish crises: the competitiveness, fiscal and banking crises, showing how all three combined to lay a lethal trap for Ireland. Starting from a point of economic balance, a series of poor government decisions led to the country once dubbed the Celtic tiger become the second eurozone state after Greece to seek a bailout, with the EFSF/IMF intervening in late 2010."

Kevin O'Rourke's irisheconomy posts also give a lot of details and food for thought on the problems with austerity and the poor evidence on expansionary fiscal contractions. 

Colm McCarthy's recent article on the potential of the bailout process in Ireland recently is also important reading. The key point from many commentators is that, while the Irish are sticking to the programme, the nature of the programme has piled so much banking debt onto the sovereign that it has made the programme self-defeating.

Stephen Kinsella's recent article in Cambridge Journal of Economics on austerity in Ireland critiques the policy. His recent article in Foreign Affairs a lay account of austerity in Ireland.

Pretty much all of Karl Whelan's irisheconomy blogposts and on his own blog are important for understanding what has been happening over the last three years.

Frank Barry's December 2011 Bloomberg article makes the case that the euro project contains substantial design flaws that are damaging the prospects of recovery in Ireland.

The Target 2 debate has been a big part of the recent debate about Ireland in europe. See the article by Tornell and Westermann arguing that Germany's banks are propping up the periphery banks and Karl Whelan's refutation of this.

Karl Whelan's briefing note to the Irish Parliament on promissory notes is one of the most lucid and cogent accounts of how to solve Irish economic crisis.

June 2012 briefing from the INET council on the euro discusses potential rescue plans.

The "Manifesto for Economic Sense" outlines another model of rescuing the European economy.

The most recent IMF statements on the Irish economy are linked here by Philip Lane

Philip Lane's summer 2012 JEP paper on the the European Sovereign debt crisis is a must-read

Donal Donovan and Antoin E. Murphy "The Fall of the Celtic Tiger: Ireland and the Euro Debt Crisis"

Philip Lane's statement to the Irish Banking inquiry and list of his relevant papers are here. 

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Brownlow: Fabricating Economic Development

A paper by Graham Brownlow from the ESR edition just before Christmas:

"Abstract: Much of the literature, regardless of academic discipline, presents the publication of Economic Development in 1958 as analogous to a “big bang” event in the creation of modern Ireland. However, such a “big bang” perspective misrepresents the sophistication of economic debates prior to Whitaker’s report as well as distorting the interpretation of subsequent developments. This paper reappraises Irish economic thinking before and after the publication of Economic Development. It is argued that an economically “liberal” approach to Keynesianism, such as that favoured by T. K. Whitaker and George O’Brien, lost out in the 1960s to a more interventionist approach: only later did a more liberal approach to macroeconomic policy triumph. The rival approaches to academic economics were in turn linked to wider debates on the influence of religious authorities on Irish higher education. Academic economists were particularly concerned with preserving their intellectual independence and how a shift to planning would keep decisions on resource allocation out of the reach of conservative political and religious leaders."

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Lehigh University Irish Economy Conference April 7/8

Lehigh University will host a conference on the Irish Economy on April 7-8. Full details are available on this website.

Lane - Irish Economic Crisis

Philip Lane's recently released paper on the Irish economic crisis is available on this link:
"Ireland is in the midst of a severe crisis. While the global financial crisis has affected all economies to varying degrees, it has been especially severe in Ireland with a cumulative nominal GDP decline of 21 percent from Q4 2007 to Q3 2010. This ranks Ireland among the worst-affected countries in terms of output performance during this period (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti 2010)."

Friday, December 17, 2010

Friday, November 26, 2010

Krugman on Ireland

Via IrishEconomy Paul Krugman on the Irish Economy. Krugman is arguing that the Irish taxpayer is practically being eaten to bail out reckless lenders and financial institutions.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

"Free college tuition has failed to open doors to all"

Sean Flynn in the Irish Times today emphasizes that socio-economic factors are still key in deciding whether someone attends university or not.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Upcoming Talks on Science, Innovation and the Economy

10th November: Panel Discussion: What's Smart about Ireland's Smart Economy in 2010?
A panel discussion with Dick Ahlstrom (chairman), Science Editor of the Irish Times; Professor John FitzGerald, ESRI; Dr Brian Kelly, CEO of Celtic Catalysts; Karlin Lillington, Technology journalist, Sean O’Driscoll (CEO Glen Dimplex) and Ferdinand von Prondzynski, former President of Dublin City University.

Organisers: Royal Irish Academy and the Irish Times
Admission is free but booking is essential.

11th November: The Long Debate: Debate on the Innovation Taskforce Report

Taking place in the NDRC on the 11th of November, the debate will draw on the findings of the Innovation Taskforce report.

Launched in March 2010, the report sets out recommendations for developing Ireland into an International Innovation Hub. Members of the Taskforce, including some of Ireland’s leading economic commentators, industry and government members, academics, creatives and entrepreneurs will be in attendance to discuss the nature of innovation within Ireland.

Organisers: Inventorium
Debate: 19.00-22.00
NDRC, Crane St, Digital Hub, Dublin 8
Registration for this event is essential.

17th November: Panel Discussion: Can Science be a Business?
A panel discussion with Dick Ahlstrom (chairman), Science Editor of the Irish Times; Professor Luke O’Neill, TCD; Dr Ena Prosser, Fountain Healthcare Partners; Professor Mark O’Malley, UCD; Professor Emmeline Hill (UCD).

Organisers: Royal Irish Academy and the Irish Times
Admission is free but booking is essential.

Friday, October 15, 2010

The psychology of our bankers

The extensive analysis of the banking and economic crisis has been dominated by economic and finance experts. But on the surface anyway much of the explanation lies in psychology. So it is timely that the Irish Times carries a piece today by Vicky Menzies and Ken McKenzie providing a psychological analysis of bankers behaviour in the run up to the crisis.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Freefall Part 2

RTE's documentary about the property crash and banking crisis is available on this link. UCD's Morgan Kelly emerges as a somewhat prophetic figure from the documentary. He himself would generally say that he called the bust when it had become obvious it was going to happen. But it is clear that very few others saw it as obvious even by 2006 and that he took an enormous reputational gamble in coming off the fence so emphatically, accruing a large amount of powerful enemies in the process who would have completely and utterly thrashed him had his predictions turned out to be incorrect.  In particular, Morgan pointed out with crystal clarity the full implications of the Irish banking system's reliance on property and what the crash would do to bank balance sheets and the consequent effect this would have on the overall national financial position. Economists generally do not welcome introspection but we really need to have some sessions on what this bust has taught us about how Economics is taught and how Economists are embedded in public policy.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Some Links

1. Do we need a "jobs czar"?

2. Chris Horn on the Irish Economy

3. The L.A. Times on the Irish Economy

4. The Collaborative on Academic Careers in Higher Education (COACHE)

5. Seeking Alpha on last Thursday's U.S. jobless claims report; the story features some graphs from Blytic.com that are worth checking out

6. The Smart Data Collective: The Data-Driven Enterprise Community; their blog recently featured a critical review of McKinsey's guide to behavioural economics for marketers

7. Intelligent Enterprise: "Possibly the most important factor influencing the spread of predictive analytics is the growing popularity of R... Vendors, including IBM SPSS, Information Builders and SAS are incorporating R." More here.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Misery Index

The good people at Status Ireland have kindly added the "The Misery Index", the sum of the inflation rate & unemployment rate (an idea due to Okun). The recent fall is presumably due to inflation.


Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Drudy, P. J. : 'Housing in Ireland: philosophy, affordability and access'

Read before the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland,
1 February 2007:

"This paper argues that Ireland’s housing problems stem in part from a particular philosophical orientation which supports the “commodification” of housing and gives strong encouragement to private market provision of housing for sale, for rent and capital gain and less attention to housing need. The paper examines the extent and causes of house price increases over the last decade, it draws comparisons with a number of other indices and concludes that housing in Ireland is over-valued/over-priced. A number of other indicators suggest that many new and aspiring house buyers are experiencing problems of affordability and other difficulties..."

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

RTE Graphic Design: The Psycho Economy

The team at RTE Graphic Design are playing their part to help us understand recent economic developments in Ireland. The animation below featured on Prime Time (an Irish current affairs program) and was inspired by Saul Bass. Bass was an American graphic designer and Academy Award-winning filmmaker who worked with Alfred Hitchcock, Stanley Kubrick and Martin Scorsese. Amongst his most famous title sequences are the animated paper cut-out of a heroin addict's arm for Preminger's The Man with the Golden Arm, and the disjointed text that raced together and was pulled apart for Psycho.

The animation can also be accessed by clicking on http://www.rte.ie/graphicdesign/, then selecting 'work', 'recent work' and 'Economy in Numbers', the title of the video.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Copenhagen Consensus as a Model for Defining National Recovery Priorities

Substantial amounts are being written at present on national level recovery. Its worth thinking about a model such as the Copenhagen Consensus one where defineable problems and projects to address them are put forward, judged and ranked. last years document contains amazing ideas succintly described and placed in their correct context

here

Monday, January 05, 2009

Conference on the Irish Economic Crisis

This was sent by IEA today and put on the Irish Economy blog. Looks very interesting.

Admission is free, but spaces are limited. Places can be booked by email to stefanie.feicke@ucd.ie, telephone (01) 7168335.

Responding to the Crisis

The UCD School of Economics, in association with the Dublin Economics Workshop, has arranged a half-day conference on the current economic crisis at the Royal College of Physicians, 6, Kildare St., Dublin 2, on January 12th. 2009.

Programme

14.15 Introductory Remarks

Rodney Thom (UCD)

14.20 Session 1: Fiscal Consolidation

Chair: John Fitz Gerald (ESRI)

Philip Lane (TCD): Fiscal Policy Options in the Euro Area

Ciaran O’Hagan (SocGen Paris): How Much Can Small Sovereigns Borrow?

Colm McCarthy (UCD): Expenditure Control and Fiscal Consolidation

Discussant: Karl Whelan (UCD)

Coffee at 15.45

16.00 Session 2: The Property Bubble and the Banking Crisis

Chair: Brendan Walsh (UCD)

Patrick Honohan (TCD): Resolving the Banking Crisis

Morgan Kelly (UCD): The Irish Property Bubble and its Consequences

Robbie Kelleher (Davy): Bank Solvency, Basle II and Accounting Standards

Discussant: Alan Ahearne (NUI Galway)

Conference concludes at 17.30.

Friday, September 26, 2008

IZA Discussion Paper on Inequality in Ireland

Does Growth Affect the Nature of Inequality? Ireland 1994–2001
by Aedin Doris, Donal O'Neill, Olive Sweetman
(September 2008)

Abstract:
Much has been written about the relationship between economic growth and aggregate inequality in recent years. In this paper we extend this literature by examining whether economic growth affects, not the level, but rather the nature of inequality. To do this we focus on the Irish economy which experienced a remarkable boom starting in 1994. We analyse the covariance structure of earnings in Ireland to examine whether this rapid growth affected earnings dynamics over the period. Using panel data for the years 1994–2001, we show that, while permanent inequality in Ireland is high, the degree of persistence of inequality was not significantly affected by the rapid growth in the economy.

http://ftp.iza.org/dp3701.pdf