Showing posts with label micro-econometrics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label micro-econometrics. Show all posts

Friday, October 14, 2011

The paradoxical effect of job training programs

Several months ago the ESRI released a study of a FAS programme which showed that the individuals on it were significantly less likely to return to work than those who were not on it. It got a lot of attention understandably.

Its natural to ask whether this is an unusual finding. A lot of people saw the finding as a reflection on FAS as an organization. In this regard it is well worth looking at a study of a training program in Norway by Aarvik, Heckman & Vytlacil (J. Econometrics 2005). This paper develops and applies some very nice (but challenging) techniques to look at treatment effects for discrete outcomes. One of the reasons why simple comparisons can be unreliable is because of cream-skimming: those running the programs may choose to take on those who are likely to get jobs anyway as it will make them look better. Clearly this will bias upward an estimate of the treatment effect.

What they find for Norway is that relatively simple comparisons (like matching on observables) imply a positive treatment effect: the probability of being employed raises by 3 or 4%.

However, once one allows for unobservables – using their sophisticated unobserved heterogeneity technique or a simpler Instrumental Variable approach- that the treatment effect is actually negative. None of the estimates are very precise. They also look at how the treatment effects vary with some observed characteristics of individuals. For example the effects are larger for those who are more likely to be unemployed.

All of this shows that careful strutiny of labour market policies is necessary. One needs to use the best econometrics available: the cost of that is small relative to the money one might waste on ineffective policies.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Bundle: Microeconomic Insights from Citibank Data

ReadWriteWeb.com: "Thanks to a cooperation with Citibank and other third-party data suppliers, Bundle is able to compile detailed statistics about how Americans are spending their money. While lots of banks also compile this data, Bundle is the first service to make this data easily accessible." Using Bundle, American citizens can investigate whether their spending patterns are in line with that of other people in their age and income group in their neighborhood. This brings a new twist to ideas from behavioural economics such as reference-dependency and other-regarding preferences.

Bundle plans to update its data on a quarterly basis. It also plans to allow users to enter their exact spending habits by either entering the data by hand or by giving users the option to upload credit card statements directly. In relation to self-reported spending habits, Dave, Liam and Colm have done research on "Experimental Tests of Survey Responses to Expenditure Questions". Bundle is also set to provide budgeting advice based on its users' spending habits. Bundle is a joint collaboration between Microsoft, Citigroup and Morningstar. The site fully integrates with Facebook and Twitter. A brief video from the folks at Bundle.com is shown below.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

The Determinants of Risk Attitudes in Ireland and the United Kingdom

An Analysis of the Determinants of Risk Attitudes in Ireland and the United Kingdom
- by Kieran McQuinn and Nuala O’Donnell
Irish Central Bank Research Paper, May 2010
This paper (linked above) uses a measure of attitude to risk in the financial domain. Attitude to risk is elicited using a six-point Likert scale; the information in this variable is transformed into a binary indicator which is the regressand in a probit model. The results show that people from ethnic backgrounds appear to be more risk averse, while married people and males seem to have a significant preference for risk. It also appears that the greater the degree of population density, the greater the preference for risk. It is suggested that improving educational attainment within the population can increase preferences for risk. It is also suggested that risk preferences are a significant determinant of an individuals ability to accumulate wealth.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

The Econometrics of Program Evaluation

An article in the latest edition of the Journal of Economic Literature provides an expert analysis of some of the issues we have been discussing recently. Abstract below:


Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation

Guido W. Imbens and Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

Many empirical questions in economics and other social sciences depend on causal effects of programs or policies. In the last two decades, much research has been done on the econometric and statistical analysis of such causal effects. This recent theoretical literature has built on, and combined features of, earlier work in both the statistics and econometrics literatures. It has by now reached a level of maturity that makes it an important tool in many areas of empirical research in economics, including labor economics, public finance, development economics, industrial organization, and other areas of empirical microeconomics. In this review, we discuss some of the recent developments. We focus primarily on practical issues for empirical researchers, as well as provide a historical overview of the area and give references to more technical research.

Link

Friday, June 26, 2009

Stata 11

The latest version of Stata, 11, is to be released shortly. Lots of new features. I particularly like the inclusion of GMM both linear & non-linear. There is also a new suite of marginal effects and unit root tests for panel data.
Time series types will enjoy the state space models,dynamic factor models & more GARCH stuff.

http://www.stata.com/stata11/

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Why Researchers Should Always Check for Outliers, and What To Do About Them

"Researchers rarely report checking for outliers of any sort. This inference is supported empirically by Osborne, Christiansen, and Gunter (2001), who found that authors reported testing assumptions of the statistical procedure(s) used in their studies--including checking for the presence of outliers--only 8% of the time. Given what we know of the importance of assumptions to accuracy of estimates and error rates, this in itself is alarming. There is no reason to believe that the situation is different in other social science disciplines."

This quote is taken from a peer-reviewed electronic journal article on outliers by Osborne and Overbay (2004), both based at North Carolina State University.

Why do we care? The presence of outliers can lead to inflated error rates and substantial distortions of parameter estimates (e.g., Zimmerman, 1994, 1995, 1998). If non-randomly distributed (which is vert possible with survey data), they can decrease normality (and in multivariate analyses, violate assumptions of sphericity and multivariate normality), altering the odds of making both Type I and Type II errors. They can seriously bias or influence estimates that may be of substantive interest (for more information on these issues, see Rasmussen, 1988; Schwager & Margolin, 1982; Zimmerman, 1994).

What are outliers? An outlier is generally considered to be a data point that is far outside the "norm" for a variable or population (e.g., Jarrell, 1994; Rasmussen, 1988; Stevens, 1984). Hawkins described an outlier as an observation that “deviates so much from other observations as to arouse suspicions that it was generated by a different mechanism” (Hawkins, 1980). Outliers have also been defined as values that are “dubious in the eyes of the researcher” (Dixon, 1950).

Where do outliers come from? All of the below are described in detail in the Osborne and Overbay paper:

(i) Outliers from data errors
(ii) Outliers from intentional or motivated mis-reporting
(iii) Outliers from sampling error
(iv) Outliers from standardization failure
(v) Outliers from faulty distributional assumptions
(vi) Outliers as legitimate cases sampled from the correct population
(vii) Outliers as potential focus of inquiry

How do we identify them? Simple rules of thumb (e.g., data points three or more standard deviations from the mean) are good starting points. Some researchers prefer visual inspection of the data.

How do we deal with them? What to do depends in large part on why an outlier is in the data in the first place. Where outliers are illegitimately included in the data, it is only common sense that those data points should be removed. One means of accommodating outliers is the use of transformations. By using transformations, extreme scores can be kept in the data set, and the relative ranking of scores remains, yet the skew and error variance present in the variable(s) can be reduced (Hamilton, 1992). One alternative to transformation is truncation, wherein extreme scores are recoded to the highest (or lowest) reasonable score.

Instead of transformations or truncation, researchers sometimes use various “robust” procedures to protect their data from being distorted by the presence of outliers. These techniques “accommodate the outliers at no serious inconvenience—or are robust against the presence of outliers” (Barnett & Lewis, 1994). A common robust estimation method for univariate distributions involves the use of a trimmed mean, which is calculated by temporarily eliminating extreme observations at both ends of the sample (Anscombe, 1960). Alternatively, researchers may choose to compute a Windsorized mean, for which the highest and lowest observations are temporarily censored, and replaced with adjacent values from the remaining data (Barnett & Lewis, 1994).

All the references to the articles mentioned above are available in the Osborne and Overbay paper.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Mostly Harmless!

DON'T PANIC! The core methods in today's econometric toolkit are linear regression for statistical control, instrumental variables methods for the analysis of natural experiments, and differences-in-differences methods that exploit policy changes.

This is the refrain of Joshua Angrist and Steve Pischke in the preface to their new book: "Mostly Harmless Econometrics". We mentioned it on the blog before here. In advance of Professor Angrist's visit to Geary on Friday, people might be interested in a preview of the Mostly Harmless book that is available here. For anyone who doesn't have a copy of the book (or even if you do), it's worth looking at the paper by Angrist and Krueger on "Empirical Strategies in Labour Economics". This is more a primer than a paper; it featured here (takes less time to to load up) in the 1999 Handbook of Labour Economics.

Abstract below:

This chapter provides an overview of the methodological and practical issues that arise when estimating causal relationships that are of interest to labor economists. The subject matter includes identification, data collection, and measurement problems. Four identification strategies are discussed, and five empirical examples -- the effects of schooling, unions, immigration, military service, and class size -- illustrate the methodological points. In discussing each example, we adopt an experimentalist perspective that emphasizes the distinction between variables that have causal effects, control variables, and outcome variables. The chapter also discusses secondary datasets, primary data collection strategies, and administrative data. The section on measurement issues focuses on recent empirical examples, presents a summary of empirical findings on the reliability of key labor market data, and briefly reviews the role of survey sampling weights and the allocation of missing values in empirical research.

Finally, there is also a range of "Mostly Harmless" t-shirts for sale; see below for a sample!

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Survey Data in Economics – Methodology and Applications

Call for Papers

On November 06-07, 2009, the Business Cycles Analysis and Survey Department of Ifo will organize a conference in Munich on the topic of survey data in economics. The conference is intended to discuss ongoing research on survey data and its application in economics.

The organizers welcome both theoretical and empirical contributions on survey data in economics, with a special emphasis on methodology and the usage of business survey data. Among the central issues that could be addressed in this conference are:

- methodology of business surveys
- dealing with non-response
- quantitative vs. qualitative responses
- behavioural aspects in surveys
- forecasting performance of survey data in business-cycle research
- econometrics of survey data
- usage of micro-data in empirical economics

More details available here.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

imbens on IV

Guido Imbens responds to Heckman and Urzua (2009) and Deaton (2009). These three papers together are worth doing a session on.

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/imbens/files/bltn_09apr10.pdf

Monday, October 06, 2008

Mostly Harmless Econometrics

DON'T PANIC! The core methods in today's econometric toolkit are linear regression for statistical control, instrumental variables methods for the analysis of natural experiments, and differences-in-differences methods that exploit policy changes.

This is the refrain of Joshua Angrist and Steve Pischke in the preface to their new book: "Mostly Harmless Econometrics". A preview is available here. My econometrics professor, Paul Devereux, tells me that there are many references throughout to the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. There is also a range of "Mostly Harmless" t-shirts for sale; see below for a sample!