Brendan Walsh on Leaving Cert. Points and University Performance in Economics

Title: Leaving Certificate points and performance in first arts economics: a study of the 1987/88 UCD class
Authors: Walsh, Brendan M.; Garvey, Padhraic
Date: Apr-1989; UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series WP89/6

This paper shows that there is a weak association between Leaving. Cert points-scores and university performance in Economics. The authors recommend that the optimal scoring scheme for entry to university Economics would give more weight to Mathematics. It is also recommended that Irish should be given less weight, or indeed none at all. Finally, the authors recommend further research that would include socio-economic and psychological factors amongst the variables explaining academic performance at university.

Bonus points for maths

The Irish Independent has an interesting article on bonus points & not just because they quote me.

Bonus points for maths: the new policy

It has just been reported that the Irish Universities Association have agreed a policy whereby students taking Higher Maths in the Leaving Certificate and getting at least a D will get an extra 25 points.
Aside from concerns about the possible effects on equality of access raised by Kathleen Lynch , I am curious about what incentives this new scheme provides. So the idea is to get more doing Higher Maths and presumably doing better all round. Often "non-linear pricing" generates perverse incentives.
So at the high end there is no additional incentive: an A is worth more than a B by the same amount. I would have thought there was an argument for increasing the bonus as one gets a higher grade. Say a student wants to get a certain amount of points from maths. In the past he could have got it from say a C-. Now a D will do (I'm not sure of the exact numbers). Might he be tempted to put in less effort, settle for a D instead, and re-allocate effort to other subjects? So one might predict a clumping of the distribution around D for this paper.
Take another student who is thinking of taking Higher Maths but is worried about failing. The relative penalty to failing has increased (the E-D gap in points) so a risk averse student might think "no thanks". There might be an argument for encouraging students to take the chance by giving some additional reward for getting an E (i.e. a smaller bonus).
Finally,lets say the policy is successful in attracting more students to doing higher Maths. Presumably these will be the people who are moderately good at maths. So on the lower paper we get fewer A's and B's and more D's on the higher paper. Why is this something to be so pleased about anyway?
When the distribution of grades is published next year, it will be a nice little project to compare before and after.

Outstanding Issues for the Bonus Points Scheme, and the Points System More Generally

"The manner in which students are admitted for third level education and in particular the points system have become matters of increasing public controversy in recent years." This sentence could have been written in recent months; it was in fact written in the late 1970's, and read before the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland on the 24th May 1979. It is an excerpt from "The Leaving Certificate and First Year University Performance" by M.A. Moran and M.J. Crowley (Department of Statistics, University College Cork).

A couple of weeks ago, I outlined all the information that I was able to find on the introduction of bonus points for maths at UCD. Since then, I have developed some thoughts on outstanding issues for the bonus points scheme, and the Irish points system (for college entry) more generally. While the bonus points scheme is somewhat separate to the overall points system, and potential changes to the points system have been discussed before on this blog, the two areas of discussion make for natural bed-fellows. It would also be a shame to lose sight of what is happening in the wider points-system, given the attention currently being given to the topic of bonus points.

In relation to the issue of bonus points, I think that the debate would benefit from more focus on the following:

(i) The overall Project Maths initiative
(ii) The potential introduction of two maths examinations; one testing basic mathematical competency (at the end of Fifth Year), which if passed would secure a pass overall and entry to third level, and another to test advanced mathematics ability
(iii) The availability of higher level maths in schools throughout the country
(iv) The claim that half of second-level maths teachers do not have maths as a major subject in their degree
(v) Whether the bonus points would be awarded only to those who are going on to take a third-level course that requires maths
(vi) Whether there should be bonus points for science subjects in the Leaving Cert.
(vii) Whether maths should be compulsory for CAO points purposes

More broadly in relation to the overall points system, I have the following comments. I know that the points system, despite its flaws, is agreed by many to be the fairest and most transparent way that college places have been allocated to date in Ireland. Thinking about what can actually be changed, my suggestion is that we need more continuous assessment (CA). However, here's the twist --- this CA should be marked anonymously, just as the exams are. This would serve to take away the pressure of the "Big Day", and the CA could even be designed to encourage critical thinking, while at the same time being a fair and transparent assessment method. As things stand, I think that too much importance is given to one exam on one day for each subject.

Finally, I also think that having four (instead of three) compulsory choices might be fairer, in that it would be viewed as a more level playing-field. Looking at Leaving Cert. subject choice between 1997 and 2005 (based on analysis that I conducted before), we know that most students choose Geography, Business Studies, French and Biology for their optional subjects. The following are the most popular subjects, in order. (I should point out that after Accounting, the numbers taking any subject are quite low):

1. Geography
2. Business Studies
3. French
4. Biology
5. Home Econ.
6. History
7. Art
8. Construction
9. Physics
10. Chemistry
11. German
12. Accounting

I should also point out that there is a sizeable fall of about 50% in the numbers taking any subject after Home Economics. We can see that the top four (Geography, Business Studies, French and Biology) include one of Hist/Geog, one "Business" subject, one language and one science subject.

HEA Report on Career Opportunities in Computing & Technology

This HEA report is available here.

"At an overall level, this research suggests that the challenges in encouraging more young people to consider a career in computing and technology are more extensive than what can be addressed in a single communications campaign. A number of individual challenges need to addressed in a variety of ways."

The report mentions that Higher level maths and certain science subjects (i.e. physics and chemistry) are seen by many students to be particularly difficult and requiring a level of work that is not conducive to the objective of maximising CAO points. (The same issue was raised by me this week on this blog). The report suggests that a key challenge lies in making these subjects more relevant to students, perhaps through more practical or relevant teaching methods, or developing interest from an earlier age, as per the objective of the Primary Science Initiative. In the aforementioned post from this week, I also flagged the challenge of making these subjects more relevant to students, and I suggested that moves towards compulsory Leaving Cert. Applied Maths and CBEL might be worth considering.

Also, the report documents that for many secondary students, their first exposure to career guidance comes in fifth year after having made their Leaving Certificate subject choices. This presents a further challenge for communication as it can mean that many may have already closed-off particular third level possibilities (for example, by switching to ordinary level maths or not selecting particular science-based subjects).

(How) Does the Leaving Cert. Prepare You For The Labour Market?

At the ESRI Labour Market Conference last week, Philip O'Connell discussed how the educational profile of unemployed males has evolved such that the biggest increases (between 2006 and 2008) in unemployment for males occur for those with Leaving Certificate and PLC qualifications. In the recent New York Times interview with Obama (that Colm mentioned), the U.S. President states that "I think the big challenge that we’ve got on education is making sure that from kindergarten or prekindergarten through your 14th or 15th year of school, or 16th year of school, or 20th year of school, that you are actually learning the kinds of skills that make you competitive and productive in a modern, technological economy." So are graduates of Ireland's Leaving Cerificate (Leaving Cert.) and PLC programmes getting the skills they need for the modern economy? There is also the vocational Leaving Cert. and Applied Leaving Cert. to bear in mind - see link here.

As the majority of students take the conventional Leaving Cert., and what I have to suggest may benefit all students, I will orientate my comments on Leaving Cert. curriculum-reform to the conventional programme. It should be noted that Senior Cycle education (i.e. Transition Year and Leaving Cert. programmes) is currently the subject of a major review by the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment (NCCA), including curriculum re-structuring and re-balancing. One example is that the NCCA has developed a draft syllabus for a new subject in the area of social and political education, called Politics and Society. This could be an engaging optional subject for many Leaving Cert. students.

In the review of senior cycle education, there is a particular focus on the role of ICT in the review of subjects and the development of short courses. It is proposed that some of the short courses developed will have a significant ICT focus, for example: "Media Communications Technology". Curriculum, Assessment and ICT in the Irish Context: A Discussion Paper sets forth the NCCA vision for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in curriculum and assessment in Irish primary and post-primary schools. "This document was developed to stimulate discussion and deliberation regarding the potential of ICT to support and extend the curriculum development and assessment work of the NCCA."

The comments I make below bear in mind exisiting developments in Senior Cycle curriculum strategy and are largely motivated to address the question - (how) does the Leaving Cert. prepare students for the labour market? This includes concerns about:
(i) those whose education stops at Leaving Cert.
(ii) those whose higher education options are restricted by Leaving Cert. subject choices
(iii) those who enter higher education but subsequently drop out and find they have to mostly use what they learned in their Leaving Cert.
(iv) those who might consider returning to higher education as a mature student

Some motivation for addressing these concerns is provided by Obama in the recent NYT interview: "My grandmother never got a college degree. She went to high school... She went to work as a secretary. But she was able to become a vice president at a bank partly because her high-school education was rigorous enough that she could communicate and analyze information in a way that, frankly, a bunch of college kids in many parts of the country can’t...we’ve got to — in our education-reform agenda — we’ve got to focus not just on increasing graduation rates, but we’ve also got to make what’s learned in the high-school and college experience more robust and more effective..."

The main suggestion that I want to propose is to re-orientate the Leaving Cert. curriculum to have four compulsory subjects: English, Maths, Applied Maths (geared towards information technology) and the “Chemistry and Biology of Everyday Life” (CBEL was discussed on the blog before - here). Having four compulsory subjects at Leaving Cert. (geared towards the needs of the economy) is suggested because (a) the economy is suffering a massive unemployment shock, and (b) there are many potential problems with subject choice at Leaving Cert., including the possibilities that:

- there is only partial information available until the student enters the college course of their choice (in other words, they may not know what they would really like to do)
- students may choose “high points” courses simply because they are “high points” courses (and not true preferences)
- another problem is exemplified by the applicant who decides to look only at courses within a certain points-band. For example, let us say that a student anticipates getting 340 points. He or she will scour the lists of last year's cut-off points, picking courses that "cost" 340 points or thereabouts, almost regardless of the content of the course

An article from Science describes the CBEL initiative as a potential solution to preference misalignmnet - at least in the specific subject domain of science. The article describes how some American universities have been trying to match science students to their interests. The course called “The Chemistry and Biology of Everyday Life” (CBEL) was developed using students’ interests in everyday life as the starting point for instruction. Of course, the American higher education system is largely non-specialised at entry to under-graduate level (see more on this here), which allows for initiatives such as CBEL post high-school. But why not have something similar for Leaving Cert. in Ireland, which builds on what students learned in the Junior Cert.? This would keep students exposed to science after the Junior Cert. (if they are not doing any science subjects as options).

One question arises which is obvious enough: "Where do we have time to fit in CBEL during 5th and 6th year?". This may be bring us onto some very difficult questions about the economic returns to certain courses of education at Leaving Cert. While Irish language is important for heritage (and knock-on effects on tourism), do we not get enough of that benefit by schooling students in the Irish language up until Junior Cert.? Why not have students take CBEL instead of Irish for Leaving Cert.? Those who want to study Irish at third-level (and I can see the need for this) could enter third-level courses that pick up where Junior Cert. Irish left off.

The fourth compulsory subject that I suggest is the Applied Mathematics course, geared strongly towards information technology. I suggest that this could be taken at Higher or Ordinary Level, but the hope would be that more students would take it at Higher Level compared to the existing (abstract) course on Maths. Take-up of the exisiting Maths course at Higher Level is extremely low, so it may be more realistic to accept that some students will continue to take the abstract Maths course at Ordinary Level (where they will still get a Maths work-out). But that they will persist with Higher Level in a new "applied" Maths course with real-world focus. This course could be useful for securing IT employment (especially for those whose education stops at Leaving Cert.) or for securing entry onto IT courses in higher education (and critically, performing well on those courses).

So the situation I suggest would be as follows - students have to take Maths, Applied Maths, CBEL and English. And then they would choose three additional courses. Looking at Leaving Cert. subject choice between 1997 and 2005 (based on anslysis I conducted on the blog before), we know that most students choose Geography, Business Studies, French and Biology for their optional subjects. The following are the most popular subjects, in order. (I should point out that after Accounting, the numbers taking any subject are quite low):

1. Geography
2. Business Studies
3. French
4. Biology
5. Home Econ.
6. History
7. Art
8. Construction
9. Physics
10. Chemistry
11. German
12. Accounting

I should also point out that there is a sizeable fall of about 50% in the numbers taking any subject after Home Economics. We can see that the top four (Geography, Business Studies, French and Biology) include one of Hist/Geog, one "Business" subject, one language and one science subject. I think that having (only) three of these "broad choices" alongside Maths, Applied Maths, CBEL and English would be a very rounded preparation before doing anything after second-level. And this might also be a better preparation for entering the labour market, which is what this argument is all about.

My hunch is that Geography, Business Studies, French, Biology and Home Econ are being chosen because they are easier exams to score more points from. I suspect that French is being chosen to get into NUI colleges, but that Home Econ would be a higher preference if the NUI language rule did not exist. Under the scope of my suggested curriculum-reform, Leaving Cert. students can still choose a language given that they have three optional choices. It could also be argued that having four (instead of three) compulsory choices might be fairer, in that it could be viewed as a more level playing-field.