Sunday, January 31, 2010
Basketball & endogeneity
Basketball is very important here in Kentucky. While at the mall today, on the back of a guy's hoodie today I saw the slogan "Basketball doesn't build character. It reflects it!" So this guy, or the person who designed his apparel, had a strong awareness of how unobserved heterogeneity can lead to misleading inferences about causal relationships. I thought about congratulating him on this, perhaps inviting him to reflect on Pearl's recent work on causality, but thought better of it. Nonetheless, he is way ahead of many more educated people. Go Wildcats!
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Measuring Expenditure and Consumption
On February 22nd, we will have an afternoon session in the Geary Institute on the measurement of consumption and expenditure. Participants include Colm Harmon, Joachim Winter and Thomas Crossley. The aims of the afternoon include (i) focused discussion of current work on measuring consumption and expenditure in surveys (ii) introduction to the Irish internet panel being conducted in Geary and its potential use a tool for innovating in measurement in economics (iii) discussion of development of research (iv) discussion of development of ongoing seminar and workshops in this area (v) Short presentations from Dublin-based PhD students on their work on measurement.
Again, this is more focused than regular seminars. Please email if you are working on these areas and would like to attend this session. Also, would appreciate ideas for developing this from internal folks.
Again, this is more focused than regular seminars. Please email if you are working on these areas and would like to attend this session. Also, would appreciate ideas for developing this from internal folks.
Biomarkers and Economics
A number of colleagues are currently in the processes of brainstorming on a biomarkers and economics event for London in April. Full details will be up soon. The integration of biological measures into economic data-sets and the utilisation of data-sets with bio-information to test economic hypotheses has been discussed on this blog for a long time, and there is clearly a growing literature with many parallel arms. If anyone is interested in potentially getting involved in this session or has suggestions for speakers for future sessions please email me. Potential uses of bio-markers include generating better econometric models of health and retirement, testing theories of the formation and determinants of preferences, providing a wider range of proxies for well-being, examining adjustment mechanisms that cannot be elicited through standard surveys, validating subjective measures and several others.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Weekend Links
1. Karl Whelan on whether we need more PhD Economists in the civil service
2. Stephen Kinsella on the road to recovery
3. A remarkable piece by George Osborne and Richard Thaler. I somehow doubt that "We can make you behave" was a title they suggested to the editors.
4. The Keynes/Hayek rap is up to over 350,000 hits - report.
5. Tim Harford talks in the FT about a behavioural economics application in Afghanistan
2. Stephen Kinsella on the road to recovery
3. A remarkable piece by George Osborne and Richard Thaler. I somehow doubt that "We can make you behave" was a title they suggested to the editors.
4. The Keynes/Hayek rap is up to over 350,000 hits - report.
5. Tim Harford talks in the FT about a behavioural economics application in Afghanistan
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Websurvey tools
We are converted MMIC users in our research group and are currently very comfortable with its features for doing experiments and so on. American Evaluation Twitter page link to surveygizmo . Worth having a look at this to see whether it has useful features above what your own web package can do.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Links 27-01-10
1. Erin Go Blog . An article written in Forbes that provides an ode to the Irish Economy blog. Well deserved praise. In general, the idea of a death of blogging in Ireland is a simple miscalculation based on quantity rather than quality. Some of the blogs that are starting to settle down are a real addition to the public sphere
2. IAREP call for papers . You will regret it later if you do not submit something.
3. Ghost estates per county on the Ireland after NAMA blog. Good stuff again.
4. Psychology Today on debt and personal growth
5. Richard Breen will give the ESRI Geary Lecture this year (thanks Michael)
2. IAREP call for papers . You will regret it later if you do not submit something.
3. Ghost estates per county on the Ireland after NAMA blog. Good stuff again.
4. Psychology Today on debt and personal growth
5. Richard Breen will give the ESRI Geary Lecture this year (thanks Michael)
Miscellaneous
1. From geek.com, the Sleep Cycle Alarm Clock App for iPhone. This app monitors oscillations between "awake", "dreaming" and "deep sleep" using the accelerometer in the iPhone. Apparently it's better to wake up in a phase of "light sleep".
2. Economists have examined the allocation of time to sleep. Recent evidence suggests that nearly 25% of U.S. adults (47 million) suffer from some level of sleep deprivation. But maybe we're getting more sleep in the recession? Up to 22 minutes more per day?
3. "The Art of Labormetrics" by Daniel Hamermesh. I'm surprised that this has escaped my attention until now: it's a NBER-WP from 1999. Appropiateness and cleanliness of data are considered, as are problems of extreme observations and interactions. Also covered are IV, natural experiments, selection and unobserved individual effects. The meaning of results and the clarity of presentation are also discussed. This is the most comprehensive review that I have seen about doing empirical micro research.
4. Randomizer.org: This site is designed for researchers and students who want a quick way to generate random numbers or assign participants to experimental conditions. Since its release in 1997, Research Randomizer has been used to generate number sets over 9.6 million times.
5. The ESRI's 50th Anniversary. Anniversary events include two Geary lectures in 2010, the first of which will be given by Professor Richard Breen (Yale) on the topic of 'social mobility and education'. Registration is now open: here.
6. A matter of life and death: a TEDTalk about the importance of using personal location data to gauge health history. "Bill Davenhall wants to improve physicians' diagnostic techniques by collecting each patient's geographic and environmental data, and merging it with their medical records."
7. A look back on the App Economy of Facebook in 2009. "We’d like to look back at some examples of startups and established companies, including those from Facebook's own fbFund program, that built their businesses on Facebook Platform and with Facebook Connect, and made significant strides in funding, acquisitions, and creating new jobs in 2009."
8. Inon: the UK's leading provider of behavioural software. Using behavioural economics to help companies provide more value to customers and increase their revenues.
2. Economists have examined the allocation of time to sleep. Recent evidence suggests that nearly 25% of U.S. adults (47 million) suffer from some level of sleep deprivation. But maybe we're getting more sleep in the recession? Up to 22 minutes more per day?
3. "The Art of Labormetrics" by Daniel Hamermesh. I'm surprised that this has escaped my attention until now: it's a NBER-WP from 1999. Appropiateness and cleanliness of data are considered, as are problems of extreme observations and interactions. Also covered are IV, natural experiments, selection and unobserved individual effects. The meaning of results and the clarity of presentation are also discussed. This is the most comprehensive review that I have seen about doing empirical micro research.
4. Randomizer.org: This site is designed for researchers and students who want a quick way to generate random numbers or assign participants to experimental conditions. Since its release in 1997, Research Randomizer has been used to generate number sets over 9.6 million times.
5. The ESRI's 50th Anniversary. Anniversary events include two Geary lectures in 2010, the first of which will be given by Professor Richard Breen (Yale) on the topic of 'social mobility and education'. Registration is now open: here.
6. A matter of life and death: a TEDTalk about the importance of using personal location data to gauge health history. "Bill Davenhall wants to improve physicians' diagnostic techniques by collecting each patient's geographic and environmental data, and merging it with their medical records."
7. A look back on the App Economy of Facebook in 2009. "We’d like to look back at some examples of startups and established companies, including those from Facebook's own fbFund program, that built their businesses on Facebook Platform and with Facebook Connect, and made significant strides in funding, acquisitions, and creating new jobs in 2009."
8. Inon: the UK's leading provider of behavioural software. Using behavioural economics to help companies provide more value to customers and increase their revenues.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Hayek versus Keynes Rap
Sorry folks - I resisted for a while but eventually it had to go up. Partly the fault of Russ Roberts, one of the people behind Econtalk podcasts, one of the net's best resources. Its actually exceptionally well produced!
Identity Economics: Not a Review
This is not a review. Just an attempt to stir up some interest in advance of a bookclub. "Identity Economics, How our identities shape our work, wages and well-being" by George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton was published recently by Princeton University Press. It draws from and develops material published by the two authors, particularly articles in the QJE, JEL, JEP and AER published from 2000 to 2008, articles that will be familiar to a lot of readers here.
The book is divided into ten chapters and four sections. Section 1 Economics and Identity comprises (i) introduction (ii) identity economics (iii) identity and norms (iv) where we fit. In particular, this section advances the idea that incorporating identity into economics is an important step in economics, as important as the process largely already undertaken of incorporating human judgment processes. They argue that norms and social categorisation are fundamental components of human decision making and valuation in a way that is simply not characterised adaquately in standard accounts of utility and tastes.
Section 2 Work and Schooling comprises (v) Organisations and (vi) Schooling. This section applies the identity economics framework to these two key components of economic life. The first chapter argues that understanding economic organisations such as firms and factories requires a detailed understanding of the identity and roles played by individuals within the organisation. Their schooling chapter considers the key role of identity in how people make decisions about and transition through schooling.
Section 3 "Gender and Race" comprises (vii) "Gender and Work" and (viii) "Race and Poverty". The first of these chapters considers gender identity and work. The second examines ethnic identities and the relation to poverty, in particular advancing the idea of identity feedback loops between minority and majority that can lead to perpetuating cycles of poverty for affected ethnic groups.
Section 4 "Looking Ahead" comprises (ix) Methodology and (x) Looking Ahead. Chapter (ix) argues that methods such as IV and natural experiments cannot fully encapsulate what is driving the relation between identity and economic outcomes, and advocates for richer descriptive accounts of economic systems and subsystems. Chapter 10 concludes on how identity considerations may change economics.
This is not the place for a lengthy review. I recommend strongly that anyone with an interest in behavioural economics read the book. The extent to which identity as described by the authors truly adds to behavioural economics will be debated thoroughly as a result of this work. I really look forward to discussing this book in lectures and our bookclub and I am sure it will reoccur on this site as it begins to filter more into economic debate.
With respect to our policy debate in Ireland, the book raises a number of questions, a sample of which I list below purely to get the ball rolling. I would really welcome a chance to debate the ideas in this book with a wide variety of people, inside and outside economics.
- the extent to which identity considerations render ineffective jobs programmes aimed at areas where male unemployment is now the majority position.
- the extent to which men and women derive serious positive and negative utility through adherence or non-adherence to prescribed gender roles and the extent to which this matters for economic policy.
- the extent to which "working class" identities influence school and college choice and the extent to which this interacts to major government spending initiatives in promoting access to education.
- how identity interacts with working roles to lead to well-being.
- the extent to which Irish identity influences our economic behaviour in areas like consumption, saving, migration, working patterns and so on.
The book is divided into ten chapters and four sections. Section 1 Economics and Identity comprises (i) introduction (ii) identity economics (iii) identity and norms (iv) where we fit. In particular, this section advances the idea that incorporating identity into economics is an important step in economics, as important as the process largely already undertaken of incorporating human judgment processes. They argue that norms and social categorisation are fundamental components of human decision making and valuation in a way that is simply not characterised adaquately in standard accounts of utility and tastes.
Section 2 Work and Schooling comprises (v) Organisations and (vi) Schooling. This section applies the identity economics framework to these two key components of economic life. The first chapter argues that understanding economic organisations such as firms and factories requires a detailed understanding of the identity and roles played by individuals within the organisation. Their schooling chapter considers the key role of identity in how people make decisions about and transition through schooling.
Section 3 "Gender and Race" comprises (vii) "Gender and Work" and (viii) "Race and Poverty". The first of these chapters considers gender identity and work. The second examines ethnic identities and the relation to poverty, in particular advancing the idea of identity feedback loops between minority and majority that can lead to perpetuating cycles of poverty for affected ethnic groups.
Section 4 "Looking Ahead" comprises (ix) Methodology and (x) Looking Ahead. Chapter (ix) argues that methods such as IV and natural experiments cannot fully encapsulate what is driving the relation between identity and economic outcomes, and advocates for richer descriptive accounts of economic systems and subsystems. Chapter 10 concludes on how identity considerations may change economics.
This is not the place for a lengthy review. I recommend strongly that anyone with an interest in behavioural economics read the book. The extent to which identity as described by the authors truly adds to behavioural economics will be debated thoroughly as a result of this work. I really look forward to discussing this book in lectures and our bookclub and I am sure it will reoccur on this site as it begins to filter more into economic debate.
With respect to our policy debate in Ireland, the book raises a number of questions, a sample of which I list below purely to get the ball rolling. I would really welcome a chance to debate the ideas in this book with a wide variety of people, inside and outside economics.
- the extent to which identity considerations render ineffective jobs programmes aimed at areas where male unemployment is now the majority position.
- the extent to which men and women derive serious positive and negative utility through adherence or non-adherence to prescribed gender roles and the extent to which this matters for economic policy.
- the extent to which "working class" identities influence school and college choice and the extent to which this interacts to major government spending initiatives in promoting access to education.
- how identity interacts with working roles to lead to well-being.
- the extent to which Irish identity influences our economic behaviour in areas like consumption, saving, migration, working patterns and so on.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Links 25-01-10
The next book club will be on Identity Economics, which I am working my through at present. No definite plans yet so I wont give this a separate post! A number of interesting NBER papers, only a couple of which are linked below. Feel free to send suggestions for links.
1. Andrew Leigh on SimpleTax - a behavioural solution to problems with tax filing
2. Dee and Jacob NBER working paper on the effects of a student plagariasm intervention
3. Jacob and Wilder NBER working paper on the role of expectations in educational attainment
4. Oswald and Wu IZA paper on match between subjective and objective measures of well-being
5. Batista and Vicente IZA paper on whether migrants improve domestic institutions by increasing the demand for accountability
6. Ronald Ehrenberg has a VOX-post on gender of academic leaders
1. Andrew Leigh on SimpleTax - a behavioural solution to problems with tax filing
2. Dee and Jacob NBER working paper on the effects of a student plagariasm intervention
3. Jacob and Wilder NBER working paper on the role of expectations in educational attainment
4. Oswald and Wu IZA paper on match between subjective and objective measures of well-being
5. Batista and Vicente IZA paper on whether migrants improve domestic institutions by increasing the demand for accountability
6. Ronald Ehrenberg has a VOX-post on gender of academic leaders
Google Fusion Tables: Share and discuss your data online
While Google's Fusion Tables may not appeal to professional researchers who are conscious of data-security, there are some useful features which may appeal to beachelor's and master's students working on group projects. These include:
- Upload small or large data sets from spreadsheets or CSV files.
- Visualize your data on maps, timelines and charts.
- Pick who can access your data; hide parts of your data if needed.
- Merge data from multiple tables.
- Discuss your data with others. Track changes and discussions.
- Upload small or large data sets from spreadsheets or CSV files.
- Visualize your data on maps, timelines and charts.
- Pick who can access your data; hide parts of your data if needed.
- Merge data from multiple tables.
- Discuss your data with others. Track changes and discussions.
NYT on potential foreclosures
The New York Times has an interesting piece by Richard Thaler on the rational decision (strategic default) to stop paying a mortgage by households that are seriously "underwater" (in negative equity to us Irish folks). The focus is particularly on states in the US where nonrecourse mortgages are the norm. These are loans where the only liability recurring to the borrower is the house itself. There is also an interesting discussion of the contagion effects of defaulting, in that it may only be when people perceive defaulting to have lost some of its social stigma that a new larger wave of defaults will begin. One thought-provoking solution put forward by a Law Professor and Economist from Chicago involves a loan modification system, where banks would be forced to renegotiate mortgage payments so that the borrower would only pay a mortgage based on something like the new decimated market value of the property.
I imagine the discussion of strategic defaults is less relevant to Ireland given our tougher bankrupcy laws etc, although anyone with more knowledge of that system is welcome to correct me. The loan modification idea is surely something that could be taken on stream to help those in Ireland that took out mortgages around 2006/07.
I imagine the discussion of strategic defaults is less relevant to Ireland given our tougher bankrupcy laws etc, although anyone with more knowledge of that system is welcome to correct me. The loan modification idea is surely something that could be taken on stream to help those in Ireland that took out mortgages around 2006/07.
Some Links
1. A report by the Institute of Public Health on the health impacts of education
2. A useful data-page from the NBER
3. A report by the DIT Futures Academy on the University of the Future
4. A newspaper article from late last week on the UK unemployment situation, including the "hidden jobless"
5. Measurement Lab (M-Lab): an open, distributed server platform to advance network research and empower the public with useful information about their broadband connections.
6. The HEA page on the National Strategy for Higher Education in Ireland
7. The top ten internet passwords
2. A useful data-page from the NBER
3. A report by the DIT Futures Academy on the University of the Future
4. A newspaper article from late last week on the UK unemployment situation, including the "hidden jobless"
5. Measurement Lab (M-Lab): an open, distributed server platform to advance network research and empower the public with useful information about their broadband connections.
6. The HEA page on the National Strategy for Higher Education in Ireland
7. The top ten internet passwords
Friday, January 22, 2010
Weekend Links 22-01-10
1. For those who missed the bookclub, I came across a version of "Road to Serfdom" in comic-book form set to music
2. Peter Sutherland on the need for mergers between Irish universities (ITimes).
3. Kasparov on chess, technology and the stifling of creativity "This is our last chess metaphor, then—a metaphor for how we have discarded innovation and creativity in exchange for a steady supply of marketable products."
4. One from the Youtube vaults - Milton Friedman's dramatic response to Phil Donahue on whether seeing hunger and poverty in the world made him question capitalism and greed as a basis for society. See also Friedman's classic half-hour interview here
5. Rational Irrationality interviews Richard Thaler
6. William Easterly heralds an age of accountability for aid agencies.
2. Peter Sutherland on the need for mergers between Irish universities (ITimes).
3. Kasparov on chess, technology and the stifling of creativity "This is our last chess metaphor, then—a metaphor for how we have discarded innovation and creativity in exchange for a steady supply of marketable products."
4. One from the Youtube vaults - Milton Friedman's dramatic response to Phil Donahue on whether seeing hunger and poverty in the world made him question capitalism and greed as a basis for society. See also Friedman's classic half-hour interview here
5. Rational Irrationality interviews Richard Thaler
6. William Easterly heralds an age of accountability for aid agencies.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Geary Seminar: Tuesday 26th 1pm. Richard Layte
Richard Layte (ESRI) will be giving a talk “Health Selection and Education Outcomes: Evidence from the Irish Longitudinal Study of Children” (with Cathal McCrory) in the Behavioural Seminar Series as follows:
Speaker: Richard Layte
Seminar Title: “Health Selection and Education Outcomes: Evidence from the Irish Longitudinal Study of Children”
Venue: Seminar Room B003/4, Geary Institute
Date: Tuesday the 26th January 2010
Time:1pm
Speaker: Richard Layte
Seminar Title: “Health Selection and Education Outcomes: Evidence from the Irish Longitudinal Study of Children”
Venue: Seminar Room B003/4, Geary Institute
Date: Tuesday the 26th January 2010
Time:1pm
All welcome
Unemployment Data and Google: From Forecasts to History Class
A belated thanks to Michael Breen for pointing out a recent article on VoxEU.org about predicting unemployment using Google Trends. The article is by D'Amuri and Marcucci: "The predictive power of Google data: New evidence on US unemployment". I have followed the literature on Google-search data and unemployment ( previously, here), but wasn't aware of the work by D'Amuri and Marcucci until now.
The research mentioned on the blog before (by Varian and Choi) was conducted to predict U.S. unemployment insurance claims using Google Trend data based around keywords such as "unemployment" and "social insurance". D'Amuri and Marcucci differ in their approach by using the "Google Index" – the incidence of Google job-search related queries over total queries – proved to have predictive power in forecasting unemployment in Germany and Israel (see Askitas and Zimmermann 2009 and Suhoy 2009).
Both approaches improve the predictive power of unemployment forecasting, but each has some limitation. D'Amuri and Marcucci mention that the Google Index could be partly driven by on-the-job search, rather than unemployed job search activities. It can be argued that this is only a problem to the extent that on-the-job search happens during a recession. D'Amuri and Marcucci also consider that not everyone has access to the internet, and therefore that people using the internet for job search are not randomly selected among job-seekers. It follows that people using the internet for unemployment benefit information are not randomly selected among the newly unemployed. These are illustrations of the sample selection problem in econometric analysis (as distinct from self-selection; Heckman provides an overview here).
So while Google Trends is a useful tool in unemployment (and other) predictions, there are reasons to be cautious; in particular, in relation to sample selection. Another limitation that has been remarked upon is that Google Trends only provides data from 2004 onwards. This is why I was intrigued when I typed "unemployment" into Google earlier today, investiagted the "options" at the top of the page, and then clicked "timeline" instead of "standard view". What I got was a picture along the lines of the one below, except that the chart was for unemployment from 1900-2010, instead of "Book of Revelation". I was unable to take a screen-grab of the unemployment chart; but you can follow a link to it here.
It's possible to click on any decade in the chart, any year and any month. Associated news stories appear in each of these categories. This is a powerful tool for finding out what was beeing reported in the media at the time any major news story was being covered. All of this is powered by Google News Timeline: a web application that organises information chronologically. "It allows users to view news and other data sources on a zoomable, graphical timeline. You can navigate through time by dragging the timeline, setting the "granularity" to weeks, months, years, or decades, or just including a time period in your query." However, using the News Timeline application directly is somewhat different to using the "timeline view" in web search. The latter provides charts such as the one shown above.
The unemployment chart shows two spikes: one at the start of the 1930's, and one in 2009. But what does this mean? According to the Google Blog, "the graph across the top of the page summarizes how dates in your results are spread through time, with higher bars representing a larger number of unique dates." Where does this historical data come from? From Google's "News Archive Search" service. News Archive Search produces the same results as the "timeline view" in web search. Search results include content from a number of sources, including both partner content digitized by Google through their News Archive Partner Program and online archival materials. More information about News Archive Search is available here.
There are some parallels to be drawn between News Archive Search (particularly the associated graphical illustrations) and the "news reference volume" feature in Google Trends. However, it is important to note that Google's "timeline" news graphs are based on monthly data-points; not daily data-points such as those used in (Trends) news reference volume. According to Google, Archive Search works as follows: "Articles related to a single story within a given time period are grouped together to allow users to see a broad perspective on the topics they are searching."
The research mentioned on the blog before (by Varian and Choi) was conducted to predict U.S. unemployment insurance claims using Google Trend data based around keywords such as "unemployment" and "social insurance". D'Amuri and Marcucci differ in their approach by using the "Google Index" – the incidence of Google job-search related queries over total queries – proved to have predictive power in forecasting unemployment in Germany and Israel (see Askitas and Zimmermann 2009 and Suhoy 2009).
Both approaches improve the predictive power of unemployment forecasting, but each has some limitation. D'Amuri and Marcucci mention that the Google Index could be partly driven by on-the-job search, rather than unemployed job search activities. It can be argued that this is only a problem to the extent that on-the-job search happens during a recession. D'Amuri and Marcucci also consider that not everyone has access to the internet, and therefore that people using the internet for job search are not randomly selected among job-seekers. It follows that people using the internet for unemployment benefit information are not randomly selected among the newly unemployed. These are illustrations of the sample selection problem in econometric analysis (as distinct from self-selection; Heckman provides an overview here).
So while Google Trends is a useful tool in unemployment (and other) predictions, there are reasons to be cautious; in particular, in relation to sample selection. Another limitation that has been remarked upon is that Google Trends only provides data from 2004 onwards. This is why I was intrigued when I typed "unemployment" into Google earlier today, investiagted the "options" at the top of the page, and then clicked "timeline" instead of "standard view". What I got was a picture along the lines of the one below, except that the chart was for unemployment from 1900-2010, instead of "Book of Revelation". I was unable to take a screen-grab of the unemployment chart; but you can follow a link to it here.
It's possible to click on any decade in the chart, any year and any month. Associated news stories appear in each of these categories. This is a powerful tool for finding out what was beeing reported in the media at the time any major news story was being covered. All of this is powered by Google News Timeline: a web application that organises information chronologically. "It allows users to view news and other data sources on a zoomable, graphical timeline. You can navigate through time by dragging the timeline, setting the "granularity" to weeks, months, years, or decades, or just including a time period in your query." However, using the News Timeline application directly is somewhat different to using the "timeline view" in web search. The latter provides charts such as the one shown above.
The unemployment chart shows two spikes: one at the start of the 1930's, and one in 2009. But what does this mean? According to the Google Blog, "the graph across the top of the page summarizes how dates in your results are spread through time, with higher bars representing a larger number of unique dates." Where does this historical data come from? From Google's "News Archive Search" service. News Archive Search produces the same results as the "timeline view" in web search. Search results include content from a number of sources, including both partner content digitized by Google through their News Archive Partner Program and online archival materials. More information about News Archive Search is available here.
There are some parallels to be drawn between News Archive Search (particularly the associated graphical illustrations) and the "news reference volume" feature in Google Trends. However, it is important to note that Google's "timeline" news graphs are based on monthly data-points; not daily data-points such as those used in (Trends) news reference volume. According to Google, Archive Search works as follows: "Articles related to a single story within a given time period are grouped together to allow users to see a broad perspective on the topics they are searching."
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Links 20/01/10
1. Having caused somewhat of a minor world event by joining twitter, Bill Gates now has a webpage sharing his thoughts on a number of global issues. Some of the essays are very interesting, not least because a man with his intelligence and resources is likely to be in a position to recommend good ways of learning. His thoughts on how to learn from the web are interesting
2. Gerard O'Neill on the latest Freedom Index statistics Ireland remains one of the freest countries in the world but declines in up to 40 countries.
3. A nice summary on Mostly Economics blog of Boston Fed chief speech on employment recovery from previous recessions
4. Economix blog report on another false CV experiment by Booth and Leigh, demonstrating discrimination against men in female dominated sectors. Whether such experiments are an unfair infringement on employers has been discussed a number of times here before. On the one hand, the processing costs of CV's is a burden and thus the distribution of thousands of fake applications incurs a cost on the economy. On the other hand, the experiments point to real discrimination and potentially help to reform unfair labour markets. Would be interested to hear opinions on what is fair use of such experiments.
5. NYT moving to an online fee model . Don't worry folks. We will never sell out here on the Geary blog.
2. Gerard O'Neill on the latest Freedom Index statistics Ireland remains one of the freest countries in the world but declines in up to 40 countries.
3. A nice summary on Mostly Economics blog of Boston Fed chief speech on employment recovery from previous recessions
4. Economix blog report on another false CV experiment by Booth and Leigh, demonstrating discrimination against men in female dominated sectors. Whether such experiments are an unfair infringement on employers has been discussed a number of times here before. On the one hand, the processing costs of CV's is a burden and thus the distribution of thousands of fake applications incurs a cost on the economy. On the other hand, the experiments point to real discrimination and potentially help to reform unfair labour markets. Would be interested to hear opinions on what is fair use of such experiments.
5. NYT moving to an online fee model . Don't worry folks. We will never sell out here on the Geary blog.
Hayek to Minsky
Thanks to those who attended for a great session on "Road to Serfdom" last night. Three hours was enough to at least get a feel for how the book set the tone for nearly 70 years of debate. I will post details of the next one up here soon. Most likely to be Hyman Minsky's Stabilising an Unstable Economy .
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Links 19-01-10
1. Pictures from Haiti . Anyone professing to be interested in human welfare must look on and wonder how to organise the world better to secure people against such hazards. For now, opinions on the best on-the-ground response are best left to people with expertise in crisis management. But the wider issues affect everyone with a conscience or even an interest in distribution and welfare.
2. Brendan Walsh on IrishEconomy on impact of recessions on health
3. Marginal Revolution on other ways to help Haiti
4. An interesting post by Gary Becker on the internet, censoring and innovation
5. Stumbling and Mumbling features a new Andrew Oswald paper on the causal impact of well-being on productivity
6. Morning in Ireland (or not, depending on your view - from Michael Hennigan)
2. Brendan Walsh on IrishEconomy on impact of recessions on health
3. Marginal Revolution on other ways to help Haiti
4. An interesting post by Gary Becker on the internet, censoring and innovation
5. Stumbling and Mumbling features a new Andrew Oswald paper on the causal impact of well-being on productivity
6. Morning in Ireland (or not, depending on your view - from Michael Hennigan)
Monday, January 18, 2010
Links 18-01-10
1. For those wanting to do postgraduate training in Behavioural Economics and related fields, IAREP has a list of potential courses
2. Salma Hayek and Friedrich Hayek compared (thanks Paul McDonnell). Anyone who wants to talk about Hayek tomorrow at 7.30pm let me know.
3. IAREP Call for Papers 2010 (Thanks Martin for updating the upcoming conferences tab). As well as faculty, please consider submitting to this conference if you are an advanced stage PhD and have a good paper.
4. My behavioural economics course . Desperate to talk to people about structure and philosophy so let me know if you would want to talk.
5. Justin Gleeson and Rob Kitchin estimate the number of vacant dwellings in Ireland on the excellent Irelandafternama blog
6. John Quiggin puts up the conclusion of his book Has been interesting to see how he developed this book through his blog.
2. Salma Hayek and Friedrich Hayek compared (thanks Paul McDonnell). Anyone who wants to talk about Hayek tomorrow at 7.30pm let me know.
3. IAREP Call for Papers 2010 (Thanks Martin for updating the upcoming conferences tab). As well as faculty, please consider submitting to this conference if you are an advanced stage PhD and have a good paper.
4. My behavioural economics course . Desperate to talk to people about structure and philosophy so let me know if you would want to talk.
5. Justin Gleeson and Rob Kitchin estimate the number of vacant dwellings in Ireland on the excellent Irelandafternama blog
6. John Quiggin puts up the conclusion of his book Has been interesting to see how he developed this book through his blog.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Weekend Links 16/01/10
1. Testosterone increases bids in the Ultimatum Game - Scientific American
2. Interesting interview with James Heckman in the New Yorker Rational Irrationality blog.
3. And another with Eugene Fama I have added Rational Irrationality to the bloglist. Good blog. Both of the above interviews part of an interviews with Chicago Economists series.
4. Arnold Kling on why the recession is so deep (via Marginal Revolution).
5. In Search of Memory (Video talks of Kandel - link via Bayesian Heresy).
6. The European Economics Association's call for papers is out.
7. A Zen monk takes over Japanese Airlines - an interesting experiment in the power of mindfulness
8. Again, most of the recent Economix posts will be of interest to people who read here. Nearly makes me redundant.
2. Interesting interview with James Heckman in the New Yorker Rational Irrationality blog.
3. And another with Eugene Fama I have added Rational Irrationality to the bloglist. Good blog. Both of the above interviews part of an interviews with Chicago Economists series.
4. Arnold Kling on why the recession is so deep (via Marginal Revolution).
5. In Search of Memory (Video talks of Kandel - link via Bayesian Heresy).
6. The European Economics Association's call for papers is out.
7. A Zen monk takes over Japanese Airlines - an interesting experiment in the power of mindfulness
8. Again, most of the recent Economix posts will be of interest to people who read here. Nearly makes me redundant.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Centre for Financial Markets Seminar: Olivier Scaillet
From Professor John Cotter:
The next seminar hosted by the Centre for Financial Markets (CFM) will take place next Thursday January 21 between 2-3.15pm at the Smurfit School of Business, Carysfort Avenue, UCD. The venue for the paper is Room N302.
"Detecting spurious jumps in high frequency data"
Details for the speaker are available at
This paper is being presented in association with the SFI Strategic Research Cluster (SRC) in the area of Financial Mathematics and Computation.
We looking forward to meeting you there and at future seminars. We would appreciate if you could circulate this notice as widely as possible.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Some lurve advice from Dr Kev
Doubtless many people would like me to advise them on their love life but are too shy, why else has it never happened after all? So what are the secrets of a happy relationship? One common axiom is that "opposites attract". Well even if they do, are you better off being different from your partner?
Below I graph subjective happiness against the difference in the education of oneself and ones partner - so high values mean is more educated than ones partner.Data is ESS for Ireland & UK.
As you can clearly see there is a downward sloping trend. So if you are more educated than you're loved one one you will regret it. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Below I graph subjective happiness against the difference in the education of oneself and ones partner - so high values mean is more educated than ones partner.Data is ESS for Ireland & UK.
As you can clearly see there is a downward sloping trend. So if you are more educated than you're loved one one you will regret it. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Heckman and Jacobs on Policies that Create and Destroy Human Capital - IZA Paper
Policies to Create and Destroy Human Capital in Europe
by James J. Heckman, Bas Jacobs
(December 2009)
forthcoming in: Hans-Werner Sinn and Edmund Phelps (eds.), Perspectives on the Performance of the Continent's Economies, MIT Press
Abstract:
Trends in skill bias and greater turbulence in modern labor markets put wages and employment prospects of unskilled workers under pressure. Weak incentives to utilize and maintain skills over the life-cycle become manifest with the ageing of the population. Reinvention of human capital policies is required to avoid increasing welfare state dependency among the unskilled and to reduce inefficiencies in human capital formation. Policy makers should acknowledge strong dynamic complementarities in skill formation. Investments in the human capital of children should expand relative to investment in older workers. There is no trade-off between equity and efficiency at early ages of human development but there is a substantial trade-off at later ages. Later remediation of skill deficits acquired in early years is often ineffective. Active labor market and training policies should therefore be reformulated. Skill formation is impaired when the returns to skill formation are low due to low skill use and insufficient skill maintenance later on in life. High marginal tax rates and generous benefit systems reduce labor force participation rates and hours worked and thereby lower the utilization rate of human capital. Tax-benefit systems should be reconsidered as they increasingly redistribute resources from outsiders to insiders in labor markets which is both distortionary and inequitable. Early retirement and pension schemes should be made actuarially fairer as they entail strong incentives to retire early and human capital is thus written off too quickly.
by James J. Heckman, Bas Jacobs
(December 2009)
forthcoming in: Hans-Werner Sinn and Edmund Phelps (eds.), Perspectives on the Performance of the Continent's Economies, MIT Press
Abstract:
Trends in skill bias and greater turbulence in modern labor markets put wages and employment prospects of unskilled workers under pressure. Weak incentives to utilize and maintain skills over the life-cycle become manifest with the ageing of the population. Reinvention of human capital policies is required to avoid increasing welfare state dependency among the unskilled and to reduce inefficiencies in human capital formation. Policy makers should acknowledge strong dynamic complementarities in skill formation. Investments in the human capital of children should expand relative to investment in older workers. There is no trade-off between equity and efficiency at early ages of human development but there is a substantial trade-off at later ages. Later remediation of skill deficits acquired in early years is often ineffective. Active labor market and training policies should therefore be reformulated. Skill formation is impaired when the returns to skill formation are low due to low skill use and insufficient skill maintenance later on in life. High marginal tax rates and generous benefit systems reduce labor force participation rates and hours worked and thereby lower the utilization rate of human capital. Tax-benefit systems should be reconsidered as they increasingly redistribute resources from outsiders to insiders in labor markets which is both distortionary and inequitable. Early retirement and pension schemes should be made actuarially fairer as they entail strong incentives to retire early and human capital is thus written off too quickly.
Links 14-01-10
1. Catherine Rampbell talks about the rise of long-term unemployment and the creation of a growing underclass on Economix Blog, covering similar ground to Ronan Lyons' post on Irish long-run unemployment linked earlier. I don't like the use of the phrase underclass in the Irish context (don't know about the US) but the main ideas in her post ring true here also.
2. Robin Hanson posts about the levers of innovation
3. Stephen Kinsella is constantly integrating new technologies into his module content. He is looking for comments on i-phone apps he is developing for teaching economics
4. Andrew Leigh summarises recent work by John List and colleagues on experimental economics
5. Greg Mankiw posts on the rise of European leisure
2. Robin Hanson posts about the levers of innovation
3. Stephen Kinsella is constantly integrating new technologies into his module content. He is looking for comments on i-phone apps he is developing for teaching economics
4. Andrew Leigh summarises recent work by John List and colleagues on experimental economics
5. Greg Mankiw posts on the rise of European leisure
Behavioural Economics of Poker
ScienceDaily (Jan. 13, 2010) — "A new Cornell study of online poker seems counterintuitive: The more hands players win, the less money they're likely to collect -- especially when it comes to novice players." The finding "coincides with observations in behavioral economics that people overweigh their frequent small gains vis-Ã -vis occasional large losses, and vice versa."
The Effect of Bans and Taxes on Passive Smoking
This just out looks interesting:
| Adda, Jérôme, and Francesca Cornaglia. 2010. "The Effect of Bans and Taxes on Passive Smoking." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(1): 1–32. | |
| DOI:10.1257/app.2.1.1 | |
| Abstract | |
| We evaluate the effect of smoking bans and excise taxes on the exposure to tobacco smoke of nonsmokers, and we show their unintended consequences on children. Smoking bans perversely increase nonsmokers' exposure by displacing smokers to private places where they contaminate nonsmokers. We exploit data on bio-samples of cotinine, time use, and smoking cessation, as well as state and time variation in anti-smoking policies across US states. We find that higher taxes are an efficient way to decrease exposure to tobacco smoke. | |
Economists are wrong: well Google says so...
Some of you will have seen Dan Ariely's post on what google searches can reveal : very clever.
http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?page_id=17
Rather than pursuing the romantic angle, I put into Google "Economists are"
The three 3 top results are:
economists are split on inflation 907,000 results
economists are useless 793,000 "
economists are wrong 3,740,000 "
So there you have it. Most people think we are wrong. I'll get my coat.
http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?page_id=17
Rather than pursuing the romantic angle, I put into Google "Economists are"
The three 3 top results are:
economists are split on inflation 907,000 results
economists are useless 793,000 "
economists are wrong 3,740,000 "
So there you have it. Most people think we are wrong. I'll get my coat.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Links 13/01/09
It may be helpful to get a sense of what it is like to be in Ireland at present to look at the following video that shows a thirty second clip from the main news of the public broadcasting channel the other evening. It has received 750,000 views on Youtube and the anonymous star is now the subject of a facebook fan page that is snowballing. The ice has melted but the father-ted feel of public life remains.
Below are today's links:
1. Economics and Human Biology is becoming an increasingly cited source over the last few years. The last issue has a number of interesting papers on the use of stature as a health bio-marker. The first article in the previous issue is co-authored by colleagues here.
2. David McWilliams article in today's Irish Independent on how NAMA is a sell-out of young people
3. Applia blog is now added to the blog list at the side. Any economics student who reads here should follow this blog. (thanks Ronan)
4. Trinity Economics Professor, Kevin O'Rourke, wins Advanced Investigator ERC award for project on trade during the Great Depression. This is among the most prestigious and competitive funding awards across any discipline in Europe and is awarded only to the very elite of academia for projects judged of high merit by a full peer-review.
5. BBC article - what turns young affluent people into suicide bombers? Worth considering Alan Krueger's work on terrorism alongside this
6. Stephen Kinsella on the elderly takeover heralded in today's times
7. More on whether Costa Rica is the world's happiest country
8. The BBC's links to Haiti appeal websites are here
Below are today's links:
1. Economics and Human Biology is becoming an increasingly cited source over the last few years. The last issue has a number of interesting papers on the use of stature as a health bio-marker. The first article in the previous issue is co-authored by colleagues here.
2. David McWilliams article in today's Irish Independent on how NAMA is a sell-out of young people
3. Applia blog is now added to the blog list at the side. Any economics student who reads here should follow this blog. (thanks Ronan)
4. Trinity Economics Professor, Kevin O'Rourke, wins Advanced Investigator ERC award for project on trade during the Great Depression. This is among the most prestigious and competitive funding awards across any discipline in Europe and is awarded only to the very elite of academia for projects judged of high merit by a full peer-review.
5. BBC article - what turns young affluent people into suicide bombers? Worth considering Alan Krueger's work on terrorism alongside this
6. Stephen Kinsella on the elderly takeover heralded in today's times
7. More on whether Costa Rica is the world's happiest country
8. The BBC's links to Haiti appeal websites are here
Hayek: Road to Serfdom
Anybody interested in discussing this book at 7.30 next Tuesday evening (19th) in the Duke, send me an email. Wiki details of the book are here I will post up details of further book clubs soon. A number of people have volunteered to chair some lunchtime sessions.
Two particular things I have been thinking about as I prepare the book is what Hayek would have made of Libertarian Paternalism and I hope I get a chance to tease this through. Also, whether Hayek poses a challenge to those of us arguing for direct intervention in the youth labour market. It clearly is not something he would have approved of but I would like to find a good Hayekian to spar with on this.
Two particular things I have been thinking about as I prepare the book is what Hayek would have made of Libertarian Paternalism and I hope I get a chance to tease this through. Also, whether Hayek poses a challenge to those of us arguing for direct intervention in the youth labour market. It clearly is not something he would have approved of but I would like to find a good Hayekian to spar with on this.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Links 12-01-09
1. IrelandafterNAMA blogpost on identifying ghost estates
2. Ronan Lyons post on why unemployment must rise to top of 2010 agenda in Ireland
3. Sovern paper on "Preventing Future Economic Crises Through Consumer Protection Law or How the Truth in Lending Act Failed the Subprime Borrowers " (via Nudge blog)
4. Nudge also links to the announcement of a 7.5 million NIH fund to examine behavioural economics solutions in healthcare
5. Additional tables for the December Irish Live Register numbers. These do not make good reading
6. Two new Geary Working papers by Chris Whelan and colleagues
7. CSO administrative data seminar 22nd February 2010
8. Dan Ariely on partial google searches as a form of data. Very clever!
2. Ronan Lyons post on why unemployment must rise to top of 2010 agenda in Ireland
3. Sovern paper on "Preventing Future Economic Crises Through Consumer Protection Law or How the Truth in Lending Act Failed the Subprime Borrowers " (via Nudge blog)
4. Nudge also links to the announcement of a 7.5 million NIH fund to examine behavioural economics solutions in healthcare
5. Additional tables for the December Irish Live Register numbers. These do not make good reading
6. Two new Geary Working papers by Chris Whelan and colleagues
7. CSO administrative data seminar 22nd February 2010
8. Dan Ariely on partial google searches as a form of data. Very clever!
Crime trends in Ireland
Apparently there has been an increase in crime against property and naturally people are linking it to the recession. But this argument is based on the supply of criminals. On the other hand there's less to steal. So do we have any proper evidence?
About 5 years ago some of us did a report for the Department of Justice, Equality & Law Reform (which seemed to sink without a trace funnily enough). We found no evidence of labour market effects but as spending rises one gets more lucrative but fewer crimes. Details of a working paper version below:
An Econometric Analysis of Burglary In Ireland
K.Denny, C.Harmon & R.Lydon
This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors: in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system : the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2004/WP04.16.pdf
About 5 years ago some of us did a report for the Department of Justice, Equality & Law Reform (which seemed to sink without a trace funnily enough). We found no evidence of labour market effects but as spending rises one gets more lucrative but fewer crimes. Details of a working paper version below:
An Econometric Analysis of Burglary In Ireland
K.Denny, C.Harmon & R.Lydon
This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors: in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system : the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2004/WP04.16.pdf
Back into the kitchen, girls?
There is an interesting discussion by Posner on the limits of GDP & its relationship with happiness on the Becker/Posner blog
http://uchicagolaw.typepad.com/beckerposner/2010/01/why-arent-americans-happierposner.html
In discussing a paper by Stevenson and Wolfers, “The Decline of Female Happiness” he notes that "..[t]hey speculate (plausibly, in my opinion) that because women are on average more risk-averse than men, they find the range of career and relationship choices open to women nowadays a source of unhappiness".
So if we restricted women's career choices they would be better off. Presumably removing the vote would also reduce stress?
For a humourous take on this see the Harry Enfield sketch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w&feature=player_embedded
http://uchicagolaw.typepad.com/beckerposner/2010/01/why-arent-americans-happierposner.html
In discussing a paper by Stevenson and Wolfers, “The Decline of Female Happiness” he notes that "..[t]hey speculate (plausibly, in my opinion) that because women are on average more risk-averse than men, they find the range of career and relationship choices open to women nowadays a source of unhappiness".
So if we restricted women's career choices they would be better off. Presumably removing the vote would also reduce stress?
For a humourous take on this see the Harry Enfield sketch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w&feature=player_embedded
Links 11-01-10
I don't think it is technically the 11th in this timezone anymore but hopefully readers will forgive me. With the return of students and other issues, I think daily links will not be a feature for too much longer, but here are today's links.
1. Kevin O'Rourke summarising recent discussions on social democracy and growth. Fairness matters .
2. The Road to Serfdom - This is the next bookclub. As soon as I get a small quorum I will announce a time. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading back over it carefully and it has given me fresh energy to think about the Libertarian Paternalism debate. Look forward to talking it through.
3. Stumbling and Mumbling blogpost on the recent Case and Paxon paper on effects of early conditions
4. Becker/Posner on happiness in America. Be grateful everyone that these intellectual giants blog every week, whether you agree with them or not.
5. Economix Blog - Recent posts on employment (among other things) full of interesting ideas.
6. National Centre for the Protection of Older People Seminar Series (thanks for reminder Michael)
7. Goldman et al VOX article on the economics of the war on Cancer. Once again, recent VOX articles are very thought-provoking.
1. Kevin O'Rourke summarising recent discussions on social democracy and growth. Fairness matters .
2. The Road to Serfdom - This is the next bookclub. As soon as I get a small quorum I will announce a time. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading back over it carefully and it has given me fresh energy to think about the Libertarian Paternalism debate. Look forward to talking it through.
3. Stumbling and Mumbling blogpost on the recent Case and Paxon paper on effects of early conditions
4. Becker/Posner on happiness in America. Be grateful everyone that these intellectual giants blog every week, whether you agree with them or not.
5. Economix Blog - Recent posts on employment (among other things) full of interesting ideas.
6. National Centre for the Protection of Older People Seminar Series (thanks for reminder Michael)
7. Goldman et al VOX article on the economics of the war on Cancer. Once again, recent VOX articles are very thought-provoking.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Failure Insurance
Yesterday's Chronicle of Higher Education reports on a working paper that was presented in Atlanta last week at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. Chatterjee and Ionescu state that the dropout rate among U.S. college students is between 33 and 50 percent. In a theoretical framework, the authors examine whether insurance against college-failure risk can be off ered, taking into account moral hazard and adverse selection. They find that optimal insurance raises the enrollment rate by 3.5 percent, the fraction acquiring a degree by 3.8 percent and welfare by 2.7 percent. In practice, students who drop out would get a portion of their student loan reimbursed.
In the U.K., by contrast, there is no risk associated with "taking out a student loan but failing to earn a degree". As mentioned on this blog before, the income-contingent loan scheme in the U.K. works as follows:
- repayments do not start until April of the year after students have completed their course
- repayments do not start until the student is earning more than 15,000 pounds
- the repayment is 9% of gross salary
- the repayment is transacted as an automatic deducation (through PAYE though this could as easily be a direct debit)
- there is no particular schedule for clearing the debt, but, if it has not been cleared 25 years after repayment began, or if the student turns 65 years old ---- then the remaining debt will be cancelled
Chatterjee and Ionescu were interviewed in the Chronicle article and asked "Why could an insurance system be superior to the kind of income-contingent repayment schemes that Milton Friedman favored?" The authors responded that the insurance scheme is not likely to be affected by moral hazard. "The reason is that the gain from obtaining a college degree is pretty large in expectation, and most students will not want to stop working hard in college simply to get a portion of their student loan reimbursed when they fail. In contrast, we believe Friedman's proposal ties repayment to earnings. His scheme would lower repayment when income is low, which gives an incentive to cut back on effort (just to lower payment on the student loan)."
It appears that the U.K. student loan scheme avoids any instance of the moral hazard problem that Chatterjee and Ionescu are concerned about. With the repayment set at 9% of gross salary, a graduate could lower the level of re-payment by deliberately earning a lower income. However, deliberately earning a lower level of income would also reduce the graduate's level of consumption. It appears that there is no disincentive to maximise earnings for graduates that avail of the U.K. student loan scheme. Finally, college-entry may be more likely under income-contingent loan schemes, such as the U.K. student loan scheme. In a "failure insurance" scheme, such as the one outlined by Chatterjee and Ionescu, students who drop out only get a portion of their student loan reimbursed. So they end up in the position of having no qualification, but still paying off some amount of debt.
* Readers may be interested in the Student Lending Analytics Blog.
In the U.K., by contrast, there is no risk associated with "taking out a student loan but failing to earn a degree". As mentioned on this blog before, the income-contingent loan scheme in the U.K. works as follows:
- repayments do not start until April of the year after students have completed their course
- repayments do not start until the student is earning more than 15,000 pounds
- the repayment is 9% of gross salary
- the repayment is transacted as an automatic deducation (through PAYE though this could as easily be a direct debit)
- there is no particular schedule for clearing the debt, but, if it has not been cleared 25 years after repayment began, or if the student turns 65 years old ---- then the remaining debt will be cancelled
Chatterjee and Ionescu were interviewed in the Chronicle article and asked "Why could an insurance system be superior to the kind of income-contingent repayment schemes that Milton Friedman favored?" The authors responded that the insurance scheme is not likely to be affected by moral hazard. "The reason is that the gain from obtaining a college degree is pretty large in expectation, and most students will not want to stop working hard in college simply to get a portion of their student loan reimbursed when they fail. In contrast, we believe Friedman's proposal ties repayment to earnings. His scheme would lower repayment when income is low, which gives an incentive to cut back on effort (just to lower payment on the student loan)."
It appears that the U.K. student loan scheme avoids any instance of the moral hazard problem that Chatterjee and Ionescu are concerned about. With the repayment set at 9% of gross salary, a graduate could lower the level of re-payment by deliberately earning a lower income. However, deliberately earning a lower level of income would also reduce the graduate's level of consumption. It appears that there is no disincentive to maximise earnings for graduates that avail of the U.K. student loan scheme. Finally, college-entry may be more likely under income-contingent loan schemes, such as the U.K. student loan scheme. In a "failure insurance" scheme, such as the one outlined by Chatterjee and Ionescu, students who drop out only get a portion of their student loan reimbursed. So they end up in the position of having no qualification, but still paying off some amount of debt.
* Readers may be interested in the Student Lending Analytics Blog.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
1 in 3 Men Unemployed, Under the Age of 25
I mentioned some statistics about current conditions in the Irish labour market in a recent post. 1 out of 8 individuals in the Irish labour force are unemployed. Taking account of labour force withdrawal and reduced working time, it is estimated that approximately 1 out of 7 are in some form of labour market distress. Gender breakdowns indicate that 2 out of 3 of these individuals are male. The latest Live Register figures show that almost twice as many men are claiming unemployment benefit (or allowance), compared to women.
Despite many posts on this blog flagging youth and graduate unemployment (a recent one is here); I was still somewhat surprised to read in today's Irish Independent that 1 in 3 men under the age of 25 are now unemployed. I decided to take a look at the most recent QNHS publication; the figure of 1 in 3 is indeed correct. Table 14 from the QNHS publication (shown below) indicates that 36.9% of males ages 15-19 are unemployed; and that 31.7% of males aged 20-24 are unemployed. This approximates to one third of males under the age of 25 being currently unemployed. The number of persons under 25 years of age on the Live Register are available on Table 2b (page 3) of Friday's Live Register release: the figure is 84,400. (Click on the table below to see a larger picture of QNHS Table 14).
What else can we learn from the table above? Looking at both genders under the age of 25, approximately 27% are currently unemployed; this figure is over double the current national average of 12.5%. The gender difference in unemployment is most marked in the 20-24 age-group; twice as many males (compared to females) are unemployed in this category. There are also twice as many males unemployed in the 25-34 age-group. These ratios are in line with the national figures for unemployment (2 out of 3 unemployed individuals are male). Across both genders, the highest concentration of unemployment is in the 15-19 age-group, followed by the 20-24 age-group; and monotonically decreasing for higher age-groups.
Finally, what can we infer about graduate unemployment? If we consider the 20-24 age-group on its own, we see that one quarter of these individuals are unemployed; and that males account for two thirds of the unemployment figure. Only a subset of individuals in the 20-24 age-group hold graduate qualifications; what we know about this demographic comes from the QNHS Special Module on Educational Attainment that ran from 2003-2008 (see Table 2 on page 6 of the Pdf). In March-May of 2008 (the most recent data available), 25% of the 20-24 age-group holds a third-level qualification (non-degree, degree, or above). 45% of the 25-34 age-group holds a third-level qualification as at March-May 2008; the higher attainment level of the 25-34 age-group suggests that graduate unemployment is as much (if not more) of a problem for this age-group.
To re-cap, we know from the QNHS Special Module on Educational Attainment that 25% of the 20-24 age-group, and 45% of the 25-34 age-group, had third-level qualifications as at March-May 2008. From the most recent QNHS we know that 24.2% of 20-24 year-olds, and 14.1% of 25-34 year-olds, are unemployed. However, it is important to be careful at this juncture, because we cannot yet tell whether unemployed individuals (aged 20-24 or 25-34) are more or less likely to have third-level qualifications. Though it only refers to March-May 2008, the most indicative source of information about graduate unemployment appears to be the breakdown of ILO employment status by educational attainment and age-category in the QNHS Special Module on Educational Attainment. Table 5 in the QNHS Special Module shows the employment rates of persons aged 25 to 64 by highest level of education attained. Unfortunately, 25-64 is the only age-range used; and QNHS Database Direct does not include the educational attainment variable.
Despite many posts on this blog flagging youth and graduate unemployment (a recent one is here); I was still somewhat surprised to read in today's Irish Independent that 1 in 3 men under the age of 25 are now unemployed. I decided to take a look at the most recent QNHS publication; the figure of 1 in 3 is indeed correct. Table 14 from the QNHS publication (shown below) indicates that 36.9% of males ages 15-19 are unemployed; and that 31.7% of males aged 20-24 are unemployed. This approximates to one third of males under the age of 25 being currently unemployed. The number of persons under 25 years of age on the Live Register are available on Table 2b (page 3) of Friday's Live Register release: the figure is 84,400. (Click on the table below to see a larger picture of QNHS Table 14).
What else can we learn from the table above? Looking at both genders under the age of 25, approximately 27% are currently unemployed; this figure is over double the current national average of 12.5%. The gender difference in unemployment is most marked in the 20-24 age-group; twice as many males (compared to females) are unemployed in this category. There are also twice as many males unemployed in the 25-34 age-group. These ratios are in line with the national figures for unemployment (2 out of 3 unemployed individuals are male). Across both genders, the highest concentration of unemployment is in the 15-19 age-group, followed by the 20-24 age-group; and monotonically decreasing for higher age-groups.
Finally, what can we infer about graduate unemployment? If we consider the 20-24 age-group on its own, we see that one quarter of these individuals are unemployed; and that males account for two thirds of the unemployment figure. Only a subset of individuals in the 20-24 age-group hold graduate qualifications; what we know about this demographic comes from the QNHS Special Module on Educational Attainment that ran from 2003-2008 (see Table 2 on page 6 of the Pdf). In March-May of 2008 (the most recent data available), 25% of the 20-24 age-group holds a third-level qualification (non-degree, degree, or above). 45% of the 25-34 age-group holds a third-level qualification as at March-May 2008; the higher attainment level of the 25-34 age-group suggests that graduate unemployment is as much (if not more) of a problem for this age-group.
To re-cap, we know from the QNHS Special Module on Educational Attainment that 25% of the 20-24 age-group, and 45% of the 25-34 age-group, had third-level qualifications as at March-May 2008. From the most recent QNHS we know that 24.2% of 20-24 year-olds, and 14.1% of 25-34 year-olds, are unemployed. However, it is important to be careful at this juncture, because we cannot yet tell whether unemployed individuals (aged 20-24 or 25-34) are more or less likely to have third-level qualifications. Though it only refers to March-May 2008, the most indicative source of information about graduate unemployment appears to be the breakdown of ILO employment status by educational attainment and age-category in the QNHS Special Module on Educational Attainment. Table 5 in the QNHS Special Module shows the employment rates of persons aged 25 to 64 by highest level of education attained. Unfortunately, 25-64 is the only age-range used; and QNHS Database Direct does not include the educational attainment variable.
Links for 10-01-09
The Hallelujah chorus is ringing around my office here as the last of the winter exam scripts are corrected. The intro sentences to the links will sound a little less like they are coming from an angry loner for a while.
1. A post on Irish Economy on the relation between behavioural economics and policy
2. Core Economics post by Joshua Gans on research on incentives created by project versus person research grants
3. Paul Krugman slamming an article on the decline of Europe, partly by pointing out that the author included the Soviet Union in definition of Europe
4. Zheng, Wang, Glaeser and Kahn on the Greenness of Chinese cities (NBER paper)
5. Richard Wilson's Future Files has a lot of food for thought. Includes the prediction that blogs will die out about 2020. I wonder what we will be blogging about here in 2019?
6. A dynamic map of the evolution of regional Irish unemployment rates
1. A post on Irish Economy on the relation between behavioural economics and policy
2. Core Economics post by Joshua Gans on research on incentives created by project versus person research grants
3. Paul Krugman slamming an article on the decline of Europe, partly by pointing out that the author included the Soviet Union in definition of Europe
4. Zheng, Wang, Glaeser and Kahn on the Greenness of Chinese cities (NBER paper)
5. Richard Wilson's Future Files has a lot of food for thought. Includes the prediction that blogs will die out about 2020. I wonder what we will be blogging about here in 2019?
6. A dynamic map of the evolution of regional Irish unemployment rates
Book Recommendations
If anyone has recommendations for recently released books that they think would be indispensable reading for the type of people that read this blog, please post them in the comments section. An old list of mine is linked here Others have given recommendations such as Economic Gangsters by Fisman and Miguel (thanks Rob), the Spirit Level by Wilkinson and Pickett (mentioned by Kevin), Microeconometrics Using STATA by Cameron and Trivedi, and Mostly Harmless Econometrics (people here even have bloody t-shirts for that one).
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Links for 09/01/10
Our academy has closed due to weather and I am the last of my tribe remaining, with my fading vision and sanity being extinguished by each exam scroll I correct.
1. Bad Science blog - Interesting blog largely related to attacking spurious scientific claims in media. Added to the blog-roll. Other suggestions for blogroll additions welcome
2. Stephen Kinsella blog post on the DELL closure one year on
3. Paper on the use of job vouchers in Germany
4. Marginal Revolution blog post on innovative ways of reducing shortages in donated organs
5. Bad Science blog post on the difficulty of making claims about public pay
6. BBC programme on relation between scientist's beliefs and their research
7. December's live register numbers for Ireland. The additional tables will be available on Tuesday
1. Bad Science blog - Interesting blog largely related to attacking spurious scientific claims in media. Added to the blog-roll. Other suggestions for blogroll additions welcome
2. Stephen Kinsella blog post on the DELL closure one year on
3. Paper on the use of job vouchers in Germany
4. Marginal Revolution blog post on innovative ways of reducing shortages in donated organs
5. Bad Science blog post on the difficulty of making claims about public pay
6. BBC programme on relation between scientist's beliefs and their research
7. December's live register numbers for Ireland. The additional tables will be available on Tuesday
Friday, January 08, 2010
Companies Tab
I've added a companies tab on the side, listing some private sector organisations that are heavily involved in utilising and developing the type of research discussed on this blog. I will add to this as we go. Companies like Fidelity (see Fidelity Labs ) are conducting a lot of innovative behavioural economics research. Some readers might be interested in looking at some of the companies listed in terms of potential future employers. In general, it would be worth linking more to how ideas from research fields we are interested in are applied in business settings, as well as the public policy setting that we cover more frequently.
Facebook Research
Day-of-the-week effects have been mentioned on the blog before, including research by Gerard O Neill from Amarach Consulting. A recent article in the New York Times reports that "there is a 9.7 percent increase in happiness on Fridays compared with the worst day of the week, Monday. That is among the discoveries made by Facebook researchers with access to two years of anonymous “status updates” from 100 million users in the United States."
The Facebook Global Happinness Index (from www.ourkitchensink.com) is shown below. The Facebook Research page related to this index is available here. The Happiness Index is based on the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC).
Updates from Facebook's data-team can be accessed here. The Top 15 status terms of 2009 can be viewed here. Analysis of maintained relationships on Facebook can be viewed here. With more data than ever available through the rise of Web 2.0, the Flowing Data blog suggests that we may see the rise of the "data-scientist".
The Facebook Global Happinness Index (from www.ourkitchensink.com) is shown below. The Facebook Research page related to this index is available here. The Happiness Index is based on the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC).
Updates from Facebook's data-team can be accessed here. The Top 15 status terms of 2009 can be viewed here. Analysis of maintained relationships on Facebook can be viewed here. With more data than ever available through the rise of Web 2.0, the Flowing Data blog suggests that we may see the rise of the "data-scientist".
Links for 08/01/10
Ireland has now run out of grit and salt. Our children roam wild, unsupervised and unschooled. Pretty soon our food supplies will be cut off. Enjoy these links dear readers. I will continue for as long as I have strength and internet connection.
1. Economix post on how different countries manage healthcare risk
2. Via Mostly Economics, Rogoff and Reinhart's AEA paper looks at growth rates at countries with differing debt levels.
3. UCD MA Economics. For those thinking of doing an MA in Economics, applications being accepted for 2010/2011.
4. Microeconometrics Using STATA is currently the top-selling book on STATA website. Can't recommend it or its companion textbook highly enough. Great resources. Btw please send me STATA links and I will post them if useful.
5. Justin Wolfers provides an analysis of the content of this year's AEA session on Freakonomics blog
6. Constantin Gurdgiev analyses the Live Register figures
1. Economix post on how different countries manage healthcare risk
2. Via Mostly Economics, Rogoff and Reinhart's AEA paper looks at growth rates at countries with differing debt levels.
3. UCD MA Economics. For those thinking of doing an MA in Economics, applications being accepted for 2010/2011.
4. Microeconometrics Using STATA is currently the top-selling book on STATA website. Can't recommend it or its companion textbook highly enough. Great resources. Btw please send me STATA links and I will post them if useful.
5. Justin Wolfers provides an analysis of the content of this year's AEA session on Freakonomics blog
6. Constantin Gurdgiev analyses the Live Register figures
Graphs in statistics
Florence Nightingale is best known for her sterling work, as a nurse, improving the health conditions of British soldiers in the Crimea by improving hygiene for example. her contributions to statistics are less well known but important. She developed graphical methods for illustrating public health statistics for UK members of parliament- not the brightest of people in general and was able to use observational studies to show the effect of improved hygiene in field hospitals on mortality. She developed a version of the pie chart.
To remind you of what a good pie chart looks like I have given an example (h/t the Laughing Squid)
To remind you of what a good pie chart looks like I have given an example (h/t the Laughing Squid)
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Links for 07-01-09
Snow and ice continue to assail our small island. Look on us future generations and take pity. Below are some links to what some of us were thinking about on this bleak day.
1. The Specials "Working for the Rat Race" Recommended by a Professor of a certain vintage who can nostalgically recall mixing it with the local skinheads at the discos and ballrooms of old. Contains some classic lyrics on the value of PhD education. Come to think of it, one of their best known songs "Ghost Town" is starting to feel a bit too contemporary again
2. Irish Times article on PJ Drudy and SJI/CORI book on new measures for social progress
3. Greg Mankiw gives his views on Obama's economic policy team. As always raises the question as to whether a similar structure in Ireland would help
4. Brian Nolan, Professor of Social Policy at UCD, published a paper on income inequality and public policy in recent edition of ESR. Well worth reading.
5. What Ireland will be borrowing in 2010 (via Irish Economy)
1. The Specials "Working for the Rat Race" Recommended by a Professor of a certain vintage who can nostalgically recall mixing it with the local skinheads at the discos and ballrooms of old. Contains some classic lyrics on the value of PhD education. Come to think of it, one of their best known songs "Ghost Town" is starting to feel a bit too contemporary again
2. Irish Times article on PJ Drudy and SJI/CORI book on new measures for social progress
3. Greg Mankiw gives his views on Obama's economic policy team. As always raises the question as to whether a similar structure in Ireland would help
4. Brian Nolan, Professor of Social Policy at UCD, published a paper on income inequality and public policy in recent edition of ESR. Well worth reading.
5. What Ireland will be borrowing in 2010 (via Irish Economy)
QMSS Summer School
Applications are invited for places on four Summer Schools to be run in summer 2010, supported by the Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences 2 programme of the European Science Foundation. These will provide opportunities for junior researchers to undertake high-level training in the latest developments in quantitative methods. They will also enable researchers to interact and share ideas and expertise based upon recent research.
The four Summer Schools in 2010 are as follows:
． Advanced methods for the analysis of complex event history data
27 June – 2 July 2010, Bristol, UK
27 June – 2 July 2010, Bristol, UK
． Methodological aspects of the use of composite scores in cross-cultural research
1 – 8 September 2010, Vienna, Austria
1 – 8 September 2010, Vienna, Austria
． Understanding survey quality
13 - 20 August 2010, Lausanne, Switzerland
13 - 20 August 2010, Lausanne, Switzerland
． Summer school in “R”
1 - 7 September 2010, Bucharest, Romania
1 - 7 September 2010, Bucharest, Romania
Applications to participate in these events are invited from well-qualified junior scholars who are researching quantitative methods or using quantitative methods in research in the social sciences and who are seeking to extend and broaden their skills.
Twenty-five applicants will be selected to participate in each Summer School. Selection will be primarily on the basis of merit, subject to consideration of balance with respect to country and discipline. The language of instruction will be English.
Accommodation and meal costs at the Summer Schools will be covered, but applicants must find their own travel costs. Only in exceptional cases of hardship will contributions be made to travel costs. Successful applicants will be expected to attend for the entire duration of the Summer School.
Eligibility: Applicants should be completing or have recently completed doctoral work in a relevant field of study and should either be a citizen of, or working in, one of the nineteen participating European countries listed on the QMSS 2 web-site (see below).
Application Procedure: Applications should consist of a short CV together with a covering letter of no more than 500 words in English. The letter should include an explanation of how the applicant’s research plans relate both to the QMSS 2 programme and, specifically, to any of the Summer Schools. The applicant should indicate their first choice of Summer Schools and whether they wish to be considered for another of the Schools if this is not available. A recommendation letter by a PhD supervisor or other established scholar is also required. For further guidance on what to include in the application, see www.ccsr.ac.uk/qmss/summer/guide.shtml
Applications should be sent by e-mail by 25 January 2010 to qmss2@manchester.ac.uk . All applicants will be informed about the outcome through e-mail by April 2010.
Further information about the programme is available via the ESF website at www.esf.org/index.php?id=4858 or the QMSS 2 website at www.ccsr.ac.uk/qmss
Trial by Ordeal
Via a suggestion on Marginal Revolution that Trial by Ordeal be used to replace peer review, the linked paper by Peter Leeson is one of the most interesting things I have read in a long time. Trial by Ordeal is basically the practice of "testing" someone's innocence by subjecting them to a lethal action such as burning or drowning on the assumption that if they were truly innocent they would survive or remain unharmed with God's will. It is often used in literature and film as a joke about medieval superstition. The author uses a economic-theoretic analysis to demonstrate why trial by ordeal is more rational than the absurd relic of the past that it appears. Link here
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Losers from Recession
I blogged early last year on the losers from the Irish Recession. Eight months later, the drastic reductions in house prices and increases in unemployment among younger people have become as lodged as the snow outside. The few feeble attempts to get a jobs package together for younger people have now more or less failed and migration is not working as a channel, which has left unemployment stabilising at a dramatically high level. Following the collapsed attempt at a deal with social partners and a winding up of the unemployment taskforce, unemployment among younger people is now firmly off the government's agenda and is not likely to feature strongly in upcoming policy debates. We are often asked to come off the fence and say what we think is important. Based on every piece of evidence from the empirical literature (blogged here dozens of a times and accesible with a google search), I cannot think of a higher priority now for a government trying to maximise the overall welfare of its citizens. We are witnessing a decimation of a generation, one so complete that it is already slipping from public concern. The failure of Ireland as a society to offer any positive suggestions for renewing itself is the biggest casuality from this recession so far. The overwhelming focus has been reactionary and preserving of insiders, leaving us all looking worn out and bereft of any ideas outside some very basic textbook macroeconomics. We need some leadership on this issue from all sections of society, and all the more within the colleges and universities. The idea that youth unemployment would come off the agenda because of unhappiness over pay negotiations is far more criminal than any bank deal.
Journal of Economic Psychology 2009:5
The last issue of the Journal of Economic Psychology has a number of papers that are worth flagging, including a paper on the determinants of direct and indirect energy use and saving behaviour and a paper examining how people mentally account time.
Links for 06-01-10
Some links on a day where snow seems to have completely ground Ireland to a halt.
1. MIT Context Aware Experience Sampling Site (thanks Michael Daly)
2. VOX article by Farmer on the Natural Rate of Unemployment
3. RCSI Mini-Med Lecture Series - Excellent Seminar Series (thanks Eoin McGuirk)
4. Economix blog article on happiest days of the year
5. Amarach Research Report for National Consumer Agency on Consumers and the Recession
6. CSO Seminar on Using Administrative data (via Irish Economy)
7. John Quiggin on Marxian Economists and the Financial Crisis
8. The Visa Fees article that everyone is blogging about as described by Tyler Cowen
9. The Silent Epidemic of Chronic Pain in Ireland (Large Research Study)
10. RAND Testimony on Understanding Motivation of Terrorists
11. TED Talk on how to live to be 100
1. MIT Context Aware Experience Sampling Site (thanks Michael Daly)
2. VOX article by Farmer on the Natural Rate of Unemployment
3. RCSI Mini-Med Lecture Series - Excellent Seminar Series (thanks Eoin McGuirk)
4. Economix blog article on happiest days of the year
5. Amarach Research Report for National Consumer Agency on Consumers and the Recession
6. CSO Seminar on Using Administrative data (via Irish Economy)
7. John Quiggin on Marxian Economists and the Financial Crisis
8. The Visa Fees article that everyone is blogging about as described by Tyler Cowen
9. The Silent Epidemic of Chronic Pain in Ireland (Large Research Study)
10. RAND Testimony on Understanding Motivation of Terrorists
11. TED Talk on how to live to be 100
Health service is not as sickly as we are told
I've been waiting for someone to do this for a while. The Irish Times journalist Sarah Carey writes a story about her positive personal experience with the public health service. The article highlights the high standard that the Irish health care system has reached and offers noteworthy suggestions as to why public perception is misconceived.
Its always nice to see a journalist write the truth and enlighten, rather than pander to their readers. It's a pity its so rare.
I wonder if the Irish appetite is more sickly than we're told?
Round-Up of News from the CSO
1. An Administrative Data Seminar will be held on February 22nd; the seminar programme is available here.
2. The Irish Government decided on 11 December 2009 that the 2011 census will take place on Sunday 10 April 2011. The Government also decided to include the following questions on the Census 2011 household form. Readers may be interested to know that the next census will provide information on general health status.
3. The Census Pilot Survey was conducted on the 19th April 2009. The accompanying report is available here.
4. Tomorrow, information will be released on County Incomes and Regional GDP for 2007.
5. On Friday, the Live Register information for December will be released.
2. The Irish Government decided on 11 December 2009 that the 2011 census will take place on Sunday 10 April 2011. The Government also decided to include the following questions on the Census 2011 household form. Readers may be interested to know that the next census will provide information on general health status.
3. The Census Pilot Survey was conducted on the 19th April 2009. The accompanying report is available here.
4. Tomorrow, information will be released on County Incomes and Regional GDP for 2007.
5. On Friday, the Live Register information for December will be released.
Economics and Psychology Event
For the last two years, we have had a lively November session, firstly in Maynooth and then in Dublin. Details of the 2010 session will be available soon. Suggestions for papers and topics most welcome. The previous session was a good mix of Irish and international speakers and generated a lot of discussion and potential for future work and collaboration. I hope to continue the trend of having speakers from different sectors and to have talks that deal with emerging infrastructures as well as specific papers. The event is not intended as a substitute for the international IAREP session (which will be announced shortly) and in some sense will act as a feeder to this session in the next few years. Funding for the 2009 event was provided by the UCD Seed Funding initiative following an application process. If anyone wants to brave the economy and provide sponsorship to cover some visiting speakers then let me know.
Economic Psychology Ireland Conference
Economic Psychology Ireland Conference
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Links for 05-01-10
1. Matthew Ygelesias on why profiling terrorists is a mug's game
2. Ramachandran TED talk on Mirror Neurons
3. Psychology Today on the burst of gamma waves that precede a Eureka moment.
4. Tyler Cowen on the Economics of Advice
5. Eight new Geary Working Papers - link here
6. DellaVigna, List and Malmendier - Testing for Alruism and Social Pressure in Charitable Giving (NBER)
7. Hossain and List - The Behaviorist Visits the Factory (NBER)
8. Recession Song - Float on (by Modest Mouse with lyrics - deadly!)
2. Ramachandran TED talk on Mirror Neurons
3. Psychology Today on the burst of gamma waves that precede a Eureka moment.
4. Tyler Cowen on the Economics of Advice
5. Eight new Geary Working Papers - link here
6. DellaVigna, List and Malmendier - Testing for Alruism and Social Pressure in Charitable Giving (NBER)
7. Hossain and List - The Behaviorist Visits the Factory (NBER)
8. Recession Song - Float on (by Modest Mouse with lyrics - deadly!)
Some Papers About Unemployment in Ireland in the 80's and 90's
Here are a few papers about unemployment in Ireland that I found recently (the full titles of the papers are at the bottom).
The most recent is by Brendan Walsh; it deals with cyclical and structural influences on Irish unemployment. Walsh describes the massive reduction in Irish unemployment over the course of the 1990's. Competitiveness, the generosity of the social welfare system and the wage bargaining process are all discussed; these are issues which have been topical in recent months.
The second is a report by Eithne Fitzgerald, Brid Ingolsby and Fiona Daly; it discusses lessons from policy innovation for solving long-term unemployment in Dublin. (Current policy initiatives on the national level are summarised here; and details of the new DETE Activation Fund are available here).
The third is a paper by Eric Strobl and Paul Walsh on structural change and long-term unemployment in Ireland. These authors discuss the build-up in male long-term unemployment which occurred throughout the 1980's in Ireland. (Long-term unemployment in Ireland increased by 55% in the year ending October 2009).
At present, 1 out of 8 individuals in the Irish labour force are unemployed. Taking account of labour force withdrawal and reduced working time, it is estimated that approximately 1 out of 7 are in some form of labour market distress. Gender breakdowns indicate that 2 out of 3 of these individuals are male. The latest Live Register figures show that almost twice as many men are claiming unemployment benefit (or allowance), compared to women.
The most recent is by Brendan Walsh; it deals with cyclical and structural influences on Irish unemployment. Walsh describes the massive reduction in Irish unemployment over the course of the 1990's. Competitiveness, the generosity of the social welfare system and the wage bargaining process are all discussed; these are issues which have been topical in recent months.
The second is a report by Eithne Fitzgerald, Brid Ingolsby and Fiona Daly; it discusses lessons from policy innovation for solving long-term unemployment in Dublin. (Current policy initiatives on the national level are summarised here; and details of the new DETE Activation Fund are available here).
The third is a paper by Eric Strobl and Paul Walsh on structural change and long-term unemployment in Ireland. These authors discuss the build-up in male long-term unemployment which occurred throughout the 1980's in Ireland. (Long-term unemployment in Ireland increased by 55% in the year ending October 2009).
At present, 1 out of 8 individuals in the Irish labour force are unemployed. Taking account of labour force withdrawal and reduced working time, it is estimated that approximately 1 out of 7 are in some form of labour market distress. Gender breakdowns indicate that 2 out of 3 of these individuals are male. The latest Live Register figures show that almost twice as many men are claiming unemployment benefit (or allowance), compared to women.
* Walsh, 2000, "Cyclical and Structural Influences on Irish Unemployment"
* Fitzgerald, Ingolsby & Daly, 2000, "Solving Long-Term Unemployment in Dublin: The Lessons from Policy Innovation"
* Strobl and Walsh, 1996, "Structural Change and Long-Term Unemployment in Ireland"
Monday, January 04, 2010
Links for 04-01-10
1. Progressive Economy on Personal Debt Levels in Ireland
2. Nudge Blog on how to Keep your New Year's Resolutions using Commitment Devices
3. University Blog on issues for Higher Education in 2010
4. Felix Salmon on the Economic Statistic of the Decade (via delong). The graph of US household borrowing is stunning.
5. Two recent reports from Forfas (thanks Mark)
The Role of PhD's in the Smart Economy
Research Strengths in Ireland
6. Philip Lane on some recent insider accounts of Iceland's banking collapse
7. Gary Becker on female empowerment
2. Nudge Blog on how to Keep your New Year's Resolutions using Commitment Devices
3. University Blog on issues for Higher Education in 2010
4. Felix Salmon on the Economic Statistic of the Decade (via delong). The graph of US household borrowing is stunning.
5. Two recent reports from Forfas (thanks Mark)
The Role of PhD's in the Smart Economy
Research Strengths in Ireland
6. Philip Lane on some recent insider accounts of Iceland's banking collapse
7. Gary Becker on female empowerment
Measuring the Returns to R&D
This issue has been debated a lot recently. A new NBER working paper deals with the topic:
We review the econometric literature on measuring the returns to R&D. The theoretical frameworks that have been used are outlined, followed by an extensive discussion of measurement and econometric issues that arise when estimating the models. We then provide a series of tables summarizing the major results that have been obtained and conclude with a presentation of R&D spillover returns measurement. In general, the private returns to R&D are strongly positive and somewhat higher than those for ordinary capital, while the social returns are even higher, although variable and imprecisely measured in many cases.
Measuring the Returns to R&D, Bronwyn H. Hall, Jacques Mairesse, and Pierre Mohnen NBER Working Paper No. 15622, December 2009
We review the econometric literature on measuring the returns to R&D. The theoretical frameworks that have been used are outlined, followed by an extensive discussion of measurement and econometric issues that arise when estimating the models. We then provide a series of tables summarizing the major results that have been obtained and conclude with a presentation of R&D spillover returns measurement. In general, the private returns to R&D are strongly positive and somewhat higher than those for ordinary capital, while the social returns are even higher, although variable and imprecisely measured in many cases.
Measuring the Returns to R&D, Bronwyn H. Hall, Jacques Mairesse, and Pierre Mohnen NBER Working Paper No. 15622, December 2009
The economics tribe
This mock ethnography of Economists by Leijonhufvud is funny if a little dated.
http://unicast.org/enclosures/life-econ-crop.pdf
http://unicast.org/enclosures/life-econ-crop.pdf
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Height and depression: continued
Further to my post ("Some unpleasant anthropometric arithmetic") below, I show simple Tobits of the malaise score against height but split by sex. The effect is much bigger for women: being short and female is particularly bad.
I have replicated this with the SHARE data and the results are qualitatively similar but much smaller in magnitude. So if the effect is "psychological" (i.e. due to stigma say & not just a marker for some other factor) is it that women are more emotionally sensitive to being of low stature?
I have replicated this with the SHARE data and the results are qualitatively similar but much smaller in magnitude. So if the effect is "psychological" (i.e. due to stigma say & not just a marker for some other factor) is it that women are more emotionally sensitive to being of low stature?
Malaise @ 23, Tobit estimator
| | (1) | (2) |
| | men | women |
| model | | |
| height23 | -3.989*** | -5.897*** |
| | (6.11) | (8.11) |
| | | |
| _cons | 8.331*** | 12.59*** |
| | (7.20) | (10.67) |
| sigma | | |
| _cons | 3.408*** | 3.732*** |
| | (84.24) | (96.88) |
| N | 6191 | 6211 |
Absolute t statistics in parentheses
* p <>** p <>*** p <>
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