New NBER Working Papers on Homocide Laws

Using Audit Studies to Test for Physician Induced Demand: The Case of Antibiotic Abuse in China
Janet Currie, Wanchuan Lin, Juanjuan Meng

NBER Working Paper No. 18153
Issued in June 2012
NBER Program(s):   HC   HE

The overuse of medical services including antibiotics is often blamed on Physician Induced Demand. But since this theory is about physician motivations, it is difficult to test. We conduct an audit study in which physician financial incentives, beliefs about what patients want, and desires to reciprocate for a small gift are systematically varied. We find that all of these treatments reduce antibiotics prescriptions, suggesting that antibiotics abuse in China is not driven by patients actively demanding antibiotics, by physicians believing that patients want antibiotics, or by physicians believing that antibiotics are in the best interests of their patients, but is largely driven by financial incentives. Our results also show that physician behavior can be significantly influenced by the receipt of a token gift, such as a pen.

Ungated Version

Stand Your Ground Laws and Homicides
Chandler B. McClellan, Erdal Tekin

NBER Working Paper No. 18187
Issued in June 2012
NBER Program(s):   HE   LE

Since 2005, eighteen states have passed legislation that has extended the right to self-defense, with no duty to retreat, to places a person has a legal right to be, and several other states are debating to introduce similar legislation. The controversies surrounding these laws have captured the nation’s attention recently. Despite significant implications that they may have on public safety, there has been little empirical investigation of the impact of these laws on crime and victimization. In this paper, we examine how Stand Your Ground laws that extend the right to self-defense to areas outside the home affect homicides using monthly data from the U.S. Vital Statistics. We identify the impact of these laws by exploiting the variation in the effective date of these laws across states. Our results indicate that Stand Your Ground laws are associated with a significant increase in the number of homicides among whites, especially white males. According to our estimates, between 4.39 and 7.44 additional white males are killed each month as a result of these laws. We find no evidence to suggest that these laws increase homicides among blacks. Our results are robust to a number of specifications and unlikely to be driven entirely by the killings of assailants. Taken together, our findings raise serious doubts against the argument that Stand Your Ground laws make America safer.

The econometrics of the death penalty

The death penalty is an emotive and complex subject. The degree to which it is accepted in some countries, especially in the USA, seems bizarre to many Europeans. An argument for the death penalty is that it acts as a deterrent. But is this supported by the evidence? One would hope that if the state is going to kill people, that at least the decision should be evidence based. The analysis reported below shows that the evidence for the deterrence effect is not that robust and indeed there is even evidence that the death penalty could actually increase the murder rate.

Deterrence and the death penalty: partial identification analysis using repeated cross section

C F Manski , J V Pepper

Researchers have long used repeated cross sectional observations of homicide rates and sanctions to examine the deterrent effect of the adoption and implementation of death penalty statutes. The empirical literature, however, has failed to achieve consensus. A fundamental problem is that the outcomes of counterfactual policies are not observable. Hence, the data alone cannot identify the deterrent effect of capital punishment. How then should research proceed? It is tempting to impose assumptions strong enough to yield a definitive finding, but strong assumptions may be inaccurate and yield flawed conclusions. Instead, we study the identifying power of relatively weak assumptions restricting variation in treatment response across places and time. The results are findings of partial identification that bound the deterrent effect of capital punishment. By successively adding stronger identifying assumptions, we seek to make transparent how assumptions shape inference. We perform empirical analysis using state-level data in the United States in 1975 and 1977. Under the weakest restrictions, there is substantial ambiguity: we cannot rule out the possibility that having a death penalty statute substantially increases or decreases homicide. This ambiguity is reduced when we impose stronger assumptions, but inferences are sensitive to the maintained restrictions. Combining the data with some assumptions implies that the death penalty increases homicide, but other assumptions imply that the death penalty deters it.

NBER working paper W17455

Mandatory Minimum Sentencing, Drug Purity and Overdose Rates

This is the title of an article in the current edition of the Economic and Social Review by Ronald Davies (UCD). Link here. Abstract below.

Abstract: As of 1987, the US’s Anti-Drug Abuse Act (ADAA) has imposed mandatory minimum sentences for drug traffickers based on the quantity of the drug involved irrespective of purity. Using the STRIDE dataset and a differences-in-differences approach, I find that this led to increases in cocaine and heroin purity of 52 per cent and 27 per cent respectively. It also affected the distribution of purity around its mean. Using data on emergency room visits, I show that changes in the distribution of purity had significant impacts on such visits. These results provide insights useful when considering Ireland’s drug policies which include the use of mandatory minimum sentences.

The Irish and America's Law and Order Problem

Immigration: America's nineteenth century "law and order problem"?

New NBER Working Paper No. 16266
Howard Bodenhorn, Carolyn M. Moehling, Anne Morrison Piehl
Issued in August 2010

Past studies of the empirical relationship between immigration and crime during the first major wave of immigration have focused on violent crime in cities and have relied on data with serious limitations regarding nativity information. We analyze administrative data from Pennsylvania prisons, with high quality information on nativity and demographic characteristics. The latter allow us to construct incarceration rates for detailed population groups using U.S. Census data. The raw gap in incarceration rates for the foreign and native born is large, in accord with the extremely high concern at the time about immigrant criminality. But adjusting for age and gender greatly narrows that observed gap. Particularly striking are the urban/rural differences. Immigrants were concentrated in large cities where reported crime rates were higher. However, within rural counties, the foreign born had much higher incarceration rates than the native born. The interaction of nativity with urban residence explains much of the observed aggregate differentials in incarceration rates. Finally, we find that the foreign born, especially the Irish, consistently have higher incarceration rates for violent crimes, but from 1850 to 1860 the natives largely closed the gap with the foreign born for property offenses.

An evaluation of a re-offender program

Pro Bono Economics "is a new charity whose aim is to broker economists into the charitable sector to help on short and medium-term assignments, typically addressing questions around measurement, results and impact.
Charitable work can have wider social and economic benefits. Quantitative evaluations by economists can help in measuring those benefits and in determining the most effective ways of channelling support to achieve them."
They have just produced their first report, which was provided by Frontier Economics an excellent economics consultancy based in London. The report "evaluates the benefits of the St Giles’ “Through the Gates” programme. The programme is aimed at reducing the rate of re-offending. It provides a range of services including pre-release assessment and, following release, accommodation and help in reintegration and employment search. In examining the economic impact of the Through the Gates programme at St Giles, Frontier Economics has confirmed the value of this important work."
Frontier estimates Benefit/Cost ratios of the order of 10 to 1. This report is a really good read, a good example of economics applied to an important topic and of the Pro Bono project.

http://www.probonoeconomics.com/pdf/St_Giles.pdf
(h/t Colm Harmon)

http://www.frontier-economics.com/

Crime trends in Ireland

Apparently there has been an increase in crime against property and naturally people are linking it to the recession. But this argument is based on the supply of criminals. On the other hand there's less to steal. So do we have any proper evidence?
About 5 years ago some of us did a report for the Department of Justice, Equality & Law Reform (which seemed to sink without a trace funnily enough). We found no evidence of labour market effects but as spending rises one gets more lucrative but fewer crimes. Details of a working paper version below:

An Econometric Analysis of Burglary In Ireland
K.Denny, C.Harmon & R.Lydon
This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors: in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system : the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.

http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2004/WP04.16.pdf

A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends

This new NBER paper advances the fascinating hypothesis that the diffusion of new therapies for mental illness have significantly reduced violent crime.

A cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends

Dave E. Marcotte, Sara Markowitz

In this paper we consider possible links between the advent and diffusion of a number of new psychiatric pharmaceutical therapies and crime rates. We describe recent trends in crime and review the evidence showing mental illness as a clear risk factor both for criminal behavior and victimization. We then briefly summarize the development of a number of new pharmaceutical therapies for the treatment of mental illness which diffused during the “great American crime decline.” We examine limited international data, as well as more detailed American data to assess the relationship between crime rates and rates of prescriptions of the main categories of psychotropic drugs, while controlling for other factors which may explain trends in crime rates. We find that increases in prescriptions for psychiatric drugs in general are associated with decreases in violent crime, with the largest impacts associated with new generation antidepressants and stimulants used to treat ADHD. Our estimates imply that about 12 percent of the recent crime drop was due to expanded mental health treatment.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w15354

Crime, punishment ,rugby

A key issue in modeling crime is whether imprisonment works in reducing crime and, if so, is it through the incarceration effect (they are banged up so can't commit further crimes) or through deterrence (they are put off crime post-imprisonment) ? The distinction is important because prisons are very expensive in general (& certainly in Ireland). Separating the two effects empirically is tricky.
A similar issue arises presumably with punishing misbehaviour in sport. Does red-carding someone work and, if so, how? Looking at the organized violence called rugby suggests that if there is an effect it is incarceration. If you gouge someone's eyes during a Lions match, a rational person must realize there is a strong chance of being caught. Likewise, Eric Cantona's assault on a fan looked pretty impulsive.

I havn't been able to find much research but this looks relevant:

"Crime, Punishment, and Recidivism Lessons From the National Hockey League"
W. David Allen
Among the fundamental elements of the sport of ice hockey are the on-ice rules violations occasionally committed by players and the penalties assessed for those violations. During the 1998-99 season, the National Hockey League (NHL) for the first time experimented with the deployment of two on-ice referees for a selection of games instead of the customary single referee, significant in that only referees have the authority to call penalties. In this article, that experimental 1998-99 season provides the empirical setting for a test of the economic model of crime, which suggests that economic agents allocate time to legal and illegal activity by considering the benefits and costs of these activities. Here, those economic agents are NHL players. Empirically, relatively nonviolent illegal activity appears significantly influenced by benefits and costs, but particularly violent acts appear to occur more randomly. Particularly violent penalties increase when a second referee is deployed, suggesting a dominant "apprehension effect" rather than a dominant "deterrence effect" of what amounts to an increase in the presence of police.
Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1, 39-60 (2002)

Google Hot Trends: Crime Mapping

Crime Mapping is a Google hot trend that peaked at #3 about 6 hours ago, with 21% of search volume in Los Angeles, CA and 6% of search volume in Montclair, CA. It's now at #9. Here's the most recent graph from Google Hot Trends:



Crime mapping is used by analysts in law enforcement agencies to map, visualize, and analyze crime incident patterns. It is a key component of crime analysis and the CompStat policing strategy. Mapping crime, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), allows crime analysts to identify crime hot spots, along with other trends and patterns. CrimeMapping.com is one of the major websites that provide information about recent crime activity by neighborhood. ClearMap is the Chicago Police Department offering. Using SpotCrime, it's possible to look at crime mapping in Dublin:
http://www.spotcrime.com/ie/dublin

Economists have some timely insights to offer on the cyclicality of crime behaviour. Derek Deadman and Ziggy MacDonald from the University of Leicester have shown that the general level of recorded crime fell in the United States and many European countries in the ten years previous to 2008. However, a recent issue of Scientific American asks "Will the Recession Spark a Crime Wave?". This fear is also becoming notable in the American media: Will Recession Make Cities Dangerous Again?

Bruce Weinberg from Ohio State University and his collaborators Eric D. Gould of Hebrew University and David Mustard of the University of Georgia have examined the crime behaviour of young males with no more than a high school education — the demographic group that commits the most crime. These authors find that average wages and unemployment rates were directly linked to the incidence of property crimes. Rick Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri–St. Louis, says: “I don’t think that newly unemployed people become criminals,” Rosenfeld notes, but “marginal consumers—the shopper who goes to discount stores—many of those consumers turn to street markets during an economic downturn. These are often markets for used goods, but some are stolen goods. As demand increases, incentives for criminals to commit crimes expand.”

Kevin Denny and Colm Harmon from UCD, along with Reamonn Lydon from the University of Warwick, have done an "Econometric Analysis of Burglary in Ireland". They model the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. The share of young males in the population is associated with higher levels of crime. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes. The effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but Denny, Harmon and Lydon show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that they were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.