Date: 2 October - PLENARY seminar
Venue: Renehan Hall
Time: 7.00 pm
Speaker: Professor D.H. Akenson (Douglas Professor of Canadian and Colonial History, Queen’s University, Ontario)
Title: ‘Oh, dear, was there really an Irish diaspora?’
Dr. Akenson is considered the world's foremost authority on the Irish Diaspora.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Irish Green Paper on pensions considers "auto-enrolment"
More than 380 submissions have been received by the Department of Social Affairs as part of the consultation process for the Irish Green Paper on Pensions. The key issues raised included pension reform options such as mandatory or auto-enrolment approaches, retirement age, and eligibility for the State pension and public sector pensions. More information on this is available here.
In this Business & Finance article from last year, myself and Liam Delaney discuss the interaction between economics and psychology with an application to retirement savings. The idea of "auto-enrolment" was evaluated by Madrian and O'Shea in their 2001 QJE paper: "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior". (401k plans are retirement savings schemes). Madrian and O'Shea found that participation is substantially higher under automatic enrolment and that a substantial proportion of people retain the default amount in the scheme even though this default amount varied among participants. They argue that automatic enrolment succeeds due to the inertia of potential program participants, and also perhaps due to the fact that employees interpret the default options as investment advice.
Also mentioned in the B&F article is the idea of "saving more tomorrow". The "Save More Tomorrow" initiative is outlined by Thaler and Benartzi in the Journal of Political Economy (2004). The idea behind this scheme is that people discount the future in a hyperbolic fashion. So Thaler and Benartzi offered people a scheme where they save a proportion of their future earnings. The idea is that people will not "feel the pain" so much if the saving is taken out of future salary and also if the saving does not result in any decline in living standards even over the short term. Thaler and Benartzi found that:
(1) a high proportion (78%) of those offered the plan joined;
(2) the vast majority of those enrolled in the plan (80%) remained in it through the fourth pay raise; and
(3) the average saving rates for programme participants increased from 3.5% to 13.6% over the course of 40 months
Finally, the B&F article also mentions a recent Wharton school paper that reported on "Quick Enrolment". This paper ("Reducing the Complexity Costs of 401(k) Participation Through Quick Enrollment") is written by Choi, Laibson and Madrian. Despite this initiative essentially being a simplification of the 401(k) scheme rather than a major change in its monetary value, participation in this programme tripled 401 (k) participation rates among new employees at one company.
So there is an evidence base for how "auto-enrolment", "saving more tomorrow" and "quick enrolment" are beneficial for encouraging retirement savings. An OECD papaer from last year is also worth looking at: Tapia, W. and J. Yermo (2007): "Implications of Behavioural Economics for Mandatory Individual Account Pension Systems". This was mentioned by Liam on the blog earlier this year: here.
In this Business & Finance article from last year, myself and Liam Delaney discuss the interaction between economics and psychology with an application to retirement savings. The idea of "auto-enrolment" was evaluated by Madrian and O'Shea in their 2001 QJE paper: "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior". (401k plans are retirement savings schemes). Madrian and O'Shea found that participation is substantially higher under automatic enrolment and that a substantial proportion of people retain the default amount in the scheme even though this default amount varied among participants. They argue that automatic enrolment succeeds due to the inertia of potential program participants, and also perhaps due to the fact that employees interpret the default options as investment advice.
Also mentioned in the B&F article is the idea of "saving more tomorrow". The "Save More Tomorrow" initiative is outlined by Thaler and Benartzi in the Journal of Political Economy (2004). The idea behind this scheme is that people discount the future in a hyperbolic fashion. So Thaler and Benartzi offered people a scheme where they save a proportion of their future earnings. The idea is that people will not "feel the pain" so much if the saving is taken out of future salary and also if the saving does not result in any decline in living standards even over the short term. Thaler and Benartzi found that:
(1) a high proportion (78%) of those offered the plan joined;
(2) the vast majority of those enrolled in the plan (80%) remained in it through the fourth pay raise; and
(3) the average saving rates for programme participants increased from 3.5% to 13.6% over the course of 40 months
Finally, the B&F article also mentions a recent Wharton school paper that reported on "Quick Enrolment". This paper ("Reducing the Complexity Costs of 401(k) Participation Through Quick Enrollment") is written by Choi, Laibson and Madrian. Despite this initiative essentially being a simplification of the 401(k) scheme rather than a major change in its monetary value, participation in this programme tripled 401 (k) participation rates among new employees at one company.
So there is an evidence base for how "auto-enrolment", "saving more tomorrow" and "quick enrolment" are beneficial for encouraging retirement savings. An OECD papaer from last year is also worth looking at: Tapia, W. and J. Yermo (2007): "Implications of Behavioural Economics for Mandatory Individual Account Pension Systems". This was mentioned by Liam on the blog earlier this year: here.
Final Version of ISNE Programme
The final version of the ISNE programme was put up on the conference website this week. The event in Galway this Friday features many interesting parallel sessions on topics as diverse as macro, labour, transport/spatial, happinness/welfare, IO, finance, health, education, history and economic thought.
There will be a keynote presentation from Prof. Robert Wright on "Demographic Change and Macroeconomic Performance", as well as many other topical presentations relating to the modelling of Irish property markets, the structure of market towns in Ireland, excess commuting in the Greater Dublin Area, redistribution in the Irish tax system over the last two decades, the house price bubble in the United States, the pricing of natural gas exports, the market for air transport services and much more besides.
Plenty of useful information is available on the conference website, including the Google-map below, which shows the route from Galway train station (A) to the Distillery Road entrance of NUIG (B). The conference venue is the J.E. Cairnes Graduate School of Buiness and Public Policy, which is very close to the Distillery Road entrance. The ever-useful Google-maps service tells us that the estimated walking time for the journey from A to B is 25 minutes. A full set of directions is also available here.
View Larger Map
There will be a keynote presentation from Prof. Robert Wright on "Demographic Change and Macroeconomic Performance", as well as many other topical presentations relating to the modelling of Irish property markets, the structure of market towns in Ireland, excess commuting in the Greater Dublin Area, redistribution in the Irish tax system over the last two decades, the house price bubble in the United States, the pricing of natural gas exports, the market for air transport services and much more besides.
Plenty of useful information is available on the conference website, including the Google-map below, which shows the route from Galway train station (A) to the Distillery Road entrance of NUIG (B). The conference venue is the J.E. Cairnes Graduate School of Buiness and Public Policy, which is very close to the Distillery Road entrance. The ever-useful Google-maps service tells us that the estimated walking time for the journey from A to B is 25 minutes. A full set of directions is also available here.
View Larger Map
Monday, September 29, 2008
One Day Event on Economics and Psychology
The website for the one day event on Economics and Psychology to be held in National University of Ireland, Maynooth on November 7th is now available below. We will place up links to papers and so on throughout the next couple of weeks
Link here
Link here
SMYE 2009
The annual Spring Meeting of Young Economists (SMYE) conferences intend to give non-tenured young economists such as PhD students, post-docs, and assistant professors, a chance to meet, present and discuss their work and cover every area of economics. The 2009 conference (the 14th meeting) will be hosted at the Marmara University, Istanbul from April 23 to 25. More information and the call for the papers are available here:
http://www.smye2009.org/
http://www.smye2009.org/
Friday, September 26, 2008
IZA Discussion Paper on Inequality in Ireland
Does Growth Affect the Nature of Inequality? Ireland 1994–2001
by Aedin Doris, Donal O'Neill, Olive Sweetman
(September 2008)
Abstract:
Much has been written about the relationship between economic growth and aggregate inequality in recent years. In this paper we extend this literature by examining whether economic growth affects, not the level, but rather the nature of inequality. To do this we focus on the Irish economy which experienced a remarkable boom starting in 1994. We analyse the covariance structure of earnings in Ireland to examine whether this rapid growth affected earnings dynamics over the period. Using panel data for the years 1994–2001, we show that, while permanent inequality in Ireland is high, the degree of persistence of inequality was not significantly affected by the rapid growth in the economy.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp3701.pdf
by Aedin Doris, Donal O'Neill, Olive Sweetman
(September 2008)
Abstract:
Much has been written about the relationship between economic growth and aggregate inequality in recent years. In this paper we extend this literature by examining whether economic growth affects, not the level, but rather the nature of inequality. To do this we focus on the Irish economy which experienced a remarkable boom starting in 1994. We analyse the covariance structure of earnings in Ireland to examine whether this rapid growth affected earnings dynamics over the period. Using panel data for the years 1994–2001, we show that, while permanent inequality in Ireland is high, the degree of persistence of inequality was not significantly affected by the rapid growth in the economy.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp3701.pdf
Thursday, September 25, 2008
That would be a psychological matter...
An article on www.cnbc.com describes the view of Ben Bernake (chairman of the Federal Reserve) on the current role of psychology in financial markets. The context is the 'Bush Bailout' that is currently being widely debated. Excerpt below.
"You ask me my opinion as an economist, but this is a matter for psychology."
That's what Mr. Bernanke said to Senator Schumer, who has been pressing both Mr. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson for some agreement that would provide a lesser amount (say $150 billion) initially, and then have the next administration vote on providing more funds.
Mr. Bernanke is wisely resisting this gambit. He noted that "dribs and drabs" was not a good way to deal with what is essentially a confidence issue. The Street will interpret passage of this kind of deal as a sign of lack of commitment...
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Field Experiments in Economics: The Past, The Present, and The Future
We already (here) have discussed Stefano della Vigna's recent NBER paper on field experiments in economics. In this NBER paper (here), Steven Levitt John A. List write on the topic, with a historical perspective.
Abstract:
This study presents an overview of modern field experiments and their usage in economics. Our discussion focuses on three distinct periods of field experimentation that have influenced the economics literature. The first might well be thought of as the dawn of "field" experimentation: the work of Neyman and Fisher, who laid the experimental foundation in the 1920s and 1930s by conceptualizing randomization as an instrument to achieve identification via experimentation with agricultural plots. The second, the large-scale social experiments conducted by government agencies in the mid-twentieth century, moved the exploration from plots of land to groups of individuals. More recently, the nature and range of field experiments has expanded, with a diverse set of controlled experiments being completed outside of the typical laboratory environment. With this growth, the number and types of questions that can be explored using field experiments has grown tremendously. After discussing these three distinct phases, we speculate on the future of field experimental methods, a future that we envision including a strong collaborative effort with outside parties, most importantly private entities.
Toxic Waste and Infant Health
Janet Currie and Johannes F. Schmieder have a new NBER working paper: "Fetal Exposure to Toxic Releases and Infant Health" (abstract below). Professor Currie will be visiting Geary in the new year; details below.
Geary Seminar: February 21st 2009, Janet Currie, (Columbia University). "Childhood Health Inequalities".
NBER Abstract:
Every year, millions of pounds of toxic chemicals thought to be linked to developmental problems in fetuses and young children are released into the air. In this paper we estimate the effect of these releases on the health of newborns. Using data from the Toxic Release Inventory Program and Vital Statistics Natality and Mortality files, we find significant negative effects of prenatal exposure to toxicants on gestation and birth weight. We also find that several developmental chemicals increase the probability of infant death. The effect is quite sizeable: the reported reductions in cadmium, toluene, and epichlorohydrin releases during the 90s could account for about 3.9 percent of the overall decrease in infant mortality. Our results are robust to several specification checks, such as comparing developmental to non-developmental chemicals, and fugitive air releases to stack air releases.
Geary Seminar: February 21st 2009, Janet Currie, (Columbia University). "Childhood Health Inequalities".
Monday, September 22, 2008
Optimal Design of Anchoring Vignettes
Jack Buckley (Professor of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development, NYU), has recently produced some findings on survey context effects in the use of anchoring vignettes. Using data from a randomized survey experiment Buckley investigates whether analyses based on anchoring vignettes may be vulnerable to the introduction of "survey artifacts" due to vignette ordering or the placement of the self-assessment item relative to the vignettes. He finds several patterns of bias due to context effects, and recommends that researchers using anchoring vignettes should consider randomization or other methods to mitigate these problems. Read more about these findings here.
Prior to his role at the Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development, Professor Buckley was the Deputy Commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, the Federal statistical agency responsible for collecting data in all areas of education in the U.S. Prior to joining NCES, he worked to improve statistical methodology in the federal intelligence community.
Prior to his role at the Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development, Professor Buckley was the Deputy Commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, the Federal statistical agency responsible for collecting data in all areas of education in the U.S. Prior to joining NCES, he worked to improve statistical methodology in the federal intelligence community.
Can't Get No Leisure
Kooreman and Kapteyn (1987) note that time not spent on market
work has traditionally been disaggregated into two distinct categories: time spent on housework and leisure. This is the context which makes the findings in Ramey and Francis ("A Century of Work and Leisure", forthcoming) so interesting. Ramey and Francis develop comprehensive measures of time spent in market work, home production, schooling, and leisure in the U.S. for the last 106 years. They find that "hours of work for prime age individuals are essentially unchanged, but that per capita leisure and average annual lifetime leisure increased by only four or five hours per week during the last 100 years."
Professor Valerie Ramey (University of California, San Diego) investigates long-run trends in American time use in a number of papers and makes all the data that she uses available on her website.
work has traditionally been disaggregated into two distinct categories: time spent on housework and leisure. This is the context which makes the findings in Ramey and Francis ("A Century of Work and Leisure", forthcoming) so interesting. Ramey and Francis develop comprehensive measures of time spent in market work, home production, schooling, and leisure in the U.S. for the last 106 years. They find that "hours of work for prime age individuals are essentially unchanged, but that per capita leisure and average annual lifetime leisure increased by only four or five hours per week during the last 100 years."
Professor Valerie Ramey (University of California, San Diego) investigates long-run trends in American time use in a number of papers and makes all the data that she uses available on her website.
IFS Course on Panel Econometrics
FROM IFS:
Panel / Longitudinal Data Analysis
6 - 7 November 2008 (London)
Tutor: Frank Windmeijer (Bristol University)
The panel/longitudinal data analysis course covers most of the traditional panel data estimation techniques for micro panels in which the number of individuals (or firms etc.) is large, but the number of time periods is quite small. It focuses on the treatment of unobserved individual specific heterogeneity and discusses the difference between random and fixed effects model specifications.
Attention is given to the estimation of models with explanatory variables that are not strictly exogenous. This means that there can be feedback from the process to be explained to the explanatory variables (for example outputs and inputs in a production function, the effect of previous cigarette consumption on current consumption), or simultaneous determination. In these cases models in first differences can be estimated with instrumental variables estimation techniques. For non-linear count data models the treatment of unobserved heterogeneity is less straightforward. Various ways of dealing with it will be discussed with special focus on how to interpret the results.
The course is a mixture of lectures and applied sessions. Course participants will apply the various techniques using real data on their computers. Software applications used are Stata and PcGive, and no prior knowledge of these is assumed. It is assumed that participants have a basic knowledge of econometrics, to a similar level to that taught in the Introductory Microeconometrics course.
Full details including a programme and booking form can be found on the cemmap website: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/courses.php?event_id=359
Panel / Longitudinal Data Analysis
6 - 7 November 2008 (London)
Tutor: Frank Windmeijer (Bristol University)
The panel/longitudinal data analysis course covers most of the traditional panel data estimation techniques for micro panels in which the number of individuals (or firms etc.) is large, but the number of time periods is quite small. It focuses on the treatment of unobserved individual specific heterogeneity and discusses the difference between random and fixed effects model specifications.
Attention is given to the estimation of models with explanatory variables that are not strictly exogenous. This means that there can be feedback from the process to be explained to the explanatory variables (for example outputs and inputs in a production function, the effect of previous cigarette consumption on current consumption), or simultaneous determination. In these cases models in first differences can be estimated with instrumental variables estimation techniques. For non-linear count data models the treatment of unobserved heterogeneity is less straightforward. Various ways of dealing with it will be discussed with special focus on how to interpret the results.
The course is a mixture of lectures and applied sessions. Course participants will apply the various techniques using real data on their computers. Software applications used are Stata and PcGive, and no prior knowledge of these is assumed. It is assumed that participants have a basic knowledge of econometrics, to a similar level to that taught in the Introductory Microeconometrics course.
Full details including a programme and booking form can be found on the cemmap website: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/courses.php?event_id=359
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Can nutrients improve behaviour?
One thousand young offenders from three prisons in England and Scotland are being recruited for a major trial to see if nutritional supplements can improve behaviour. The study is being organised by neuroscientist Professor John Stein, of the University of Oxford, whose brother is the chef Rick Stein.
Read more from the BBC here. None of the young offenders have ever tasted marinated raw fish before. Neither have I.
Read more from the BBC here. None of the young offenders have ever tasted marinated raw fish before. Neither have I.
A Primer On Ordered Choice Models
Thanks to Colm for sending this on earlier today:
Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments
William H. Greene, David A. Hensher
June 15, 2008 (Version 4 - available here)
We survey the literature on models for ordered choices, including ordered logit and probit specifications. The contemporary form of the model is presented and analyzed in detail. The historical development of the model is presented as well. We detail a number of generalizations that have appeared in the recent literature. Finally, we propose a new form of the model that accommodates in a natural, internally consistent form, functional form flexibility and individual heterogeneity. Much of this study is pedagogical. However, the last few sections propose new model formulations, and illustrate them with an application to self reported health satisfaction.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Research Image: Patterns of Emotion Throughout the Day
Below is an image from a study we recently finished in Dublin examining patterns of mood utilising a version of a methodology called the day reconstruction method, a diary approach that was originally developed in a series of papers by Kahneman and colleagues. 6 represents 6am and it goes up until 26 which is 2am. The clear divergence between positive and negative emotions as the day moves on is obvious to see in the graph. Some interesting features such as the spike in tension and anger at about three o'clock are also noticeable so if you are reading this at three o'clock in the afternoon then chill out (or send me a nasty email!).
We will be working on this and related work throughout the next year. Gerard O'Neill in Amarach has worked with us to integrate this work with gis tracking to examine commuting stress and its relation to commute patterns and we will present on this soon. We have also been working on integrating this work with continuous tracking of stress hormones and heart rate.
Some key references:
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A.B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A.A. (2004a). Toward national well-being accounts. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 94, 429–34.
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2004b).
Day Reconstruction Method. Science -- Full Text. Retrieved on 24 August, 2007 from http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1776
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2006). Would you be happier if you were richer? Science -- Full Text. Retrieved on 24 August, 2007 from http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/312/5782/1908
We will be working on this and related work throughout the next year. Gerard O'Neill in Amarach has worked with us to integrate this work with gis tracking to examine commuting stress and its relation to commute patterns and we will present on this soon. We have also been working on integrating this work with continuous tracking of stress hormones and heart rate.
Some key references:
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A.B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A.A. (2004a). Toward national well-being accounts. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 94, 429–34.
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2004b).
Day Reconstruction Method. Science -- Full Text. Retrieved on 24 August, 2007 from http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1776
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2006). Would you be happier if you were richer? Science -- Full Text. Retrieved on 24 August, 2007 from http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/312/5782/1908
Monday, September 15, 2008
Personality on Social Network Sites: An Application of the Five Factor Model
Stefan Wehrli, September 2008, Paper available here
...We use data from an online survey with 1560 respondents from a major Swiss technical university and their corresponding online profiles and friendship networks on a popular Social Network Site (SNS)... we collected survey data on personality traits with a short question inventory of the Five Factor Personality Model. We show how these.. influence participation, adoption time, nodal degree and ego-network growth over a period of 4 months on the networking platform... extraversion (is) a major driving force in the tie formation process. We find a counter-intuitive positive effect for neuroticism, a negative influence for conscientiousness and no effects for openness and agreeableness.
Irish Society of New Economists
We are happy to announce the programme for the Irish Society of New Economists Annual Conference is available below. Well done to John Cullinan and Martin Ryan for organising all of this
ISNE Programme
Full details of the venue and conference are available below:
http://isne08.googlepages.com/
ISNE Programme
Full details of the venue and conference are available below:
http://isne08.googlepages.com/
ESRI Seminar
ESRI Research Seminar
Part-time Work and Health among Older Workers
in Ireland and Britain
Dr Brenda Gannon[1] and Jennifer Roberts[2]
Irish Centre for Social Gerontology, NUI Galway
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Date: Thursday 18/09/2008
Time: 4 pm
Part-time work is viewed as a viable option for people who wish to have a gradual transition to retirement. From a policy viewpoint, this may help to alleviate some labour supply shortages, especially in the context of the aging population. Factors such as health or pension provision may influence a person’s decision to work part-time. This paper considers the impact of health on the work decision for people aged 50 and over in the UK and Ireland. Methodological issues are discussed and the impact of unobserved individual effects is estimated using the Mundlak estimator applied to the multinomial probit model. The impact of health on part-time work is negative in Ireland, but we find no significant effect in the UK. The paper discusses potential reasons for these impacts and current policies on part-time work.
Part-time Work and Health among Older Workers
in Ireland and Britain
Dr Brenda Gannon[1] and Jennifer Roberts[2]
Irish Centre for Social Gerontology, NUI Galway
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Date: Thursday 18/09/2008
Time: 4 pm
Part-time work is viewed as a viable option for people who wish to have a gradual transition to retirement. From a policy viewpoint, this may help to alleviate some labour supply shortages, especially in the context of the aging population. Factors such as health or pension provision may influence a person’s decision to work part-time. This paper considers the impact of health on the work decision for people aged 50 and over in the UK and Ireland. Methodological issues are discussed and the impact of unobserved individual effects is estimated using the Mundlak estimator applied to the multinomial probit model. The impact of health on part-time work is negative in Ireland, but we find no significant effect in the UK. The paper discusses potential reasons for these impacts and current policies on part-time work.
Economist calculates estimates of revenue from third level fees
In today's Irish Independent (here), it is reported that education minister Batt O'Keeffe has again signalled his eagerness to examine the reintroduction of third-level fees, after a report he commissioned claimed they would boost State coffers by €530m.
The minister has also commissioned a report on the Australian student-loan model, where students repay the cost of their education when they get jobs. A tax expert has also been commissioned to compile a report on how the self-employed, including farmers, could be charged college fees.
Calculations by a UCD economist revealed the State would collect €530m, if families earning over €120,000 a year had to pay third-level fees; €290m, if an income threshold of €140,000 was applied; and €220m, if a threshold over €160,000 was used... Last night, department sources said the analysis by UCD economist Dr Noel Woods was made merely to "inform the debate".
The minister has also commissioned a report on the Australian student-loan model, where students repay the cost of their education when they get jobs. A tax expert has also been commissioned to compile a report on how the self-employed, including farmers, could be charged college fees.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Institute of Psychiatry Podcasts
The Institute of Psychiatry in London have an extensive selection of publicly available podcasts that should be of interest to many of the people who read the blog
http://www.iop.kcl.ac.uk/podcast/?id=64&type=artist
http://www.iop.kcl.ac.uk/podcast/?id=64&type=artist
Discount Rates in the Field and the Lab
Another NBER working paper below examines discount rates in lab tasks and correlates them with "field" measures of discount rates. They find that the lab-elicited discount rate correlates less than 0.28 with all field measures of discounting such as different types of financial behaviour etc., though they argue that elicited discount rates are more predictive than demographic variables in predicting behaviour. Worth comparing this to the study we did this year which examined how well discount rates were predicted by common personality and psychometric inventories. We find evidence of correlations with heart rate variability, systolic blood pressure, self-control, extraversion, consideration of future consequences and experiential avoidance. As in the Chabris et al paper, all correlations are below 0.29.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14270
http://ftp.iza.org/dp3674.pdf
Chabris, Laibson, Morris, Schuldt, Taubinsky
---- Abstract -----
We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14270
http://ftp.iza.org/dp3674.pdf
Chabris, Laibson, Morris, Schuldt, Taubinsky
---- Abstract -----
We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.
Socioeconomic Status and Health
From the NBER Website
New Paper Reviewing Socioeconomic Status and Health by Cutler, Lleras-Muney, and Vogl
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14333
---- Abstract -----
This paper reviews the evidence on the well-known positive association between socioeconomic status and health. We focus on four dimensions of socioeconomic status -- education, financial resources, rank, and race and ethnicity -- paying particular attention to how the mechanisms linking health to each of these dimensions diverge and coincide. The extent to which socioeconomic advantage causes good health varies, both across these four dimensions and across the phases of the lifecycle. Circumstances in early life play a crucial role in determining the co-evolution of socioeconomic status and health throughout adulthood. In adulthood, a considerable part of the association runs from health to socioeconomic status, at least in the case of wealth. The diversity of pathways casts doubt upon theories that treat socioeconomic status as a unified concept.
New Paper Reviewing Socioeconomic Status and Health by Cutler, Lleras-Muney, and Vogl
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14333
---- Abstract -----
This paper reviews the evidence on the well-known positive association between socioeconomic status and health. We focus on four dimensions of socioeconomic status -- education, financial resources, rank, and race and ethnicity -- paying particular attention to how the mechanisms linking health to each of these dimensions diverge and coincide. The extent to which socioeconomic advantage causes good health varies, both across these four dimensions and across the phases of the lifecycle. Circumstances in early life play a crucial role in determining the co-evolution of socioeconomic status and health throughout adulthood. In adulthood, a considerable part of the association runs from health to socioeconomic status, at least in the case of wealth. The diversity of pathways casts doubt upon theories that treat socioeconomic status as a unified concept.
Galway Seminar on Suicide
SEMINAR Speaker: Professor Antonio Rodriquez, Universidad de Castilla La Mancha, Spain. Title: Socioeconomic differences in suicide risk among adult persons between 18 to 65 years old in Denmark: A population based longitudinal study.
2.00 - 4.00 Friday 19th September, 2008.
Lecture Hall 1, St. Anthony's
http://www.economics.nuig.ie/resrch/event.php?eid=123
2.00 - 4.00 Friday 19th September, 2008.
Lecture Hall 1, St. Anthony's
http://www.economics.nuig.ie/resrch/event.php?eid=123
Friday, September 12, 2008
Yale Geocon project
The Yale Geocon project has been around a while but i have just seen these graphs as someone pointed them out to me.
http://gecon.yale.edu/
Have a look at the link that says pixeled contour globe - what a really interesting way of looking at data
http://gecon.yale.edu/
Have a look at the link that says pixeled contour globe - what a really interesting way of looking at data
Thursday, September 11, 2008
The Pre-Packed Sandwich... Post Credit-Crunch
Spar have launched a new "Euro Crunch Sandwich" (see below). Retailing at €1, the pricing strategy on this item may be a sign that consumer behaviour has changed since the credit crunch. Cynics may say that this is just a gimmick, not even a loss-leader but simply a novelty to get people in the door. But I tried one from the Leeson St. store last night and so did the customer behind me. The sandwich is very simple (one filling) but that is the only quality dimesnion that differentiates this sandwich from any other pre-packed offering. The alternatives are no more substantial and retail around the €4 mark. The Spar chain have similar "Crunch" offerings across a range of items and the initiative is meeting favourable demand in Dublin 6 --- I got the second last sandwich last night while the more expensive offerings languished on the shelves.
No Decision on Fees For At Least A Year
It is reported in today's Irish Independent (here) that no Government decision about the return of third level tuition fees will be taken for at least a year. Education Minister Batt O'Keeffe said he would have to consider the implications of the return of fees in terms of access to higher education.
On a related note, Universities UK last week released a report on tuition fees in England: “Variable tuition fees in England: assessing their impact on students and higher education institutions”. The publication is the third annual report that Universities UK has prepared on the issue. According to the European University Association (here):
Meanwhile, John Walshe also writes about the funding crisis in higher education in yesterday's Irish Independent. According to his story (available here):
On a more serious note, UCD is expecting a deficit of €15m this year and worse next year unless action is taken to control costs. The university will have to find savings equal to 9-10pc for 2009.
"Mr O'Keeffe said it had been claimed in the past that the PAYE sector was not being treated in the same way as the self-employed and this issue was being looked at by a tax expert in terms of equity."
On a related note, Universities UK last week released a report on tuition fees in England: “Variable tuition fees in England: assessing their impact on students and higher education institutions”. The publication is the third annual report that Universities UK has prepared on the issue. According to the European University Association (here):
“Overall there is nothing in the available data that indicates that the introduction of variable fees in England has yet had any lasting impact on the level or pattern of demand for full-time undergraduate education,” the report says.
Meanwhile, John Walshe also writes about the funding crisis in higher education in yesterday's Irish Independent. According to his story (available here):
The latest cutbacks in UCD really take the biscuit. Things have got so tough on campus that official visitors would be lucky to get a cuppa, never mind anything to go with it. "The provision of tea, coffee, biscuits, etc, should be discouraged and reduced," says a memo sent to staff...
On a more serious note, UCD is expecting a deficit of €15m this year and worse next year unless action is taken to control costs. The university will have to find savings equal to 9-10pc for 2009.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
We Feel Fine
Gerard O'Neill has flagged an interesting data collection engine on the Amarach Research Blog; its called: "We Feel Fine". Full details are avilable here. The engine automatically scours the Internet every ten minutes, harvesting human feelings from a large number of blogs. Blog data comes from a variety of online sources, including LiveJournal, MSN Spaces, MySpace, Blogger, Flickr, Technorati, Feedster, Ice Rocket, and Google. Blog posts are scanned for occurrences of the phrases "I feel" and "I am feeling".
Once a sentence containing "I feel" or "I am feeling" is found, the system "looks backward to the beginning of the sentence, and forward to the end of the sentence, and then saves the full sentence in a database. Once saved, the sentence is scanned to see if it includes one of about 5,000 pre-identified feelings. Because a high percentage of all blogs are hosted by one of several large blogging companies (Blogger, MySpace, MSN Spaces, LiveJournal, etc), the URL format of many blog posts can be used to extract the username of the post's author.
Given the author's username, it is possible to find the user's profile page; and from the profile page, it is possible to extract the age, gender, country, state, and city of the blog's owner. Given the country, state, and city, information on local weather conditions is also retrieved! This could be a powerfiul tool for understanding cross-cultural variation in self-reported well being, while controlling for geography and weather conditions.
Once a sentence containing "I feel" or "I am feeling" is found, the system "looks backward to the beginning of the sentence, and forward to the end of the sentence, and then saves the full sentence in a database. Once saved, the sentence is scanned to see if it includes one of about 5,000 pre-identified feelings. Because a high percentage of all blogs are hosted by one of several large blogging companies (Blogger, MySpace, MSN Spaces, LiveJournal, etc), the URL format of many blog posts can be used to extract the username of the post's author.
Given the author's username, it is possible to find the user's profile page; and from the profile page, it is possible to extract the age, gender, country, state, and city of the blog's owner. Given the country, state, and city, information on local weather conditions is also retrieved! This could be a powerfiul tool for understanding cross-cultural variation in self-reported well being, while controlling for geography and weather conditions.
The Distribution of Academic Achievement in Irish Higher Education: 1998-2002
We have been giving some consideration recently to administrative and self-reported measures of academic achievement. Some useful context for these efforts is provided by a HETAC publication from 2003: "An Analysis of Degree, Diploma and Certificate Awards in Ireland, 1998 to 2002". The report was prepared by Dr. Cathal Walsh from Insight Statistical Consulting, and the analysis is done on data provided FETAC, DIT and the HEA. FETAC is the body responsible for awarding qualifications across the IT sector (except for DIT), while DIT and the seven universities award their own qualifications. Data on awards made across the seven universities is collected and compiled by the HEA.
Some interesting key points from the report are the following:
• The distribution of classes of awards received differs across discipline areas. "This difference is most notable in the case of H1 awards, and in the discipline areas of Engineering and Science."
• There is substantial real variation between institutions in the proportion of each class awarded.
• The proportion of higher classes of awards increased over the period (1998-2002).
Some suggestions are also offered as to why institutions may have a different rate of award classifications: "...the intake into a particular course may be quite specialised. A course may have a high number of students settling for a pass degree, or else a high drop out rate. Any of these, together with other issues, will influence the overall proportion of awards in each class."
Some interesting key points from the report are the following:
• The distribution of classes of awards received differs across discipline areas. "This difference is most notable in the case of H1 awards, and in the discipline areas of Engineering and Science."
• There is substantial real variation between institutions in the proportion of each class awarded.
• The proportion of higher classes of awards increased over the period (1998-2002).
Some suggestions are also offered as to why institutions may have a different rate of award classifications: "...the intake into a particular course may be quite specialised. A course may have a high number of students settling for a pass degree, or else a high drop out rate. Any of these, together with other issues, will influence the overall proportion of awards in each class."
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
One Day Economics and Psychology Symposium
Economics and Psychology One-Day Conference
A one-day conference on Economics and Psychology will take place in NUIM on November 7th (Exact Venue to be confirmed). The purpose of this event is to provide a forum for the discussion of work at the interface of economics, psychology and cognate disciplines such as neuroscience. The event is co-organized by the Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting in Maynooth and the UCD Geary Institute. The International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP) is the relevant international body and we would encourage attendees to consider joining this group. All are welcome and there is no registration fee. Please contact Liam Delaney (Liam.Delaney@ucd.ie ) to confirm attendance.
Programme
10.00 – 10.15: Welcome: Professor Rowena Pecchenino
10.15-10.45: Liam Delaney (UCD). “Psychological and Biological Foundations of Time Preferences”.
10.45-11.15: Orla Doyle (UCD). “Early Childhood Differences in Time Preferences: Evidence from the Millennium Cohort Study”
11.15-11.30: Coffee
11.30 – 12.00: Stephen Kinsella (UL). “Computable and Experimental Economics at UL”
12.00 – 12.30: Mirko Moro (UCD). “Spatial Heterogeneity in Well-Being”
12.30- 1.00: Kevin Denny (UCD). “A continuum of handedness predicts behaviour”
1.00 – 2.00: Lunch
2.00 – 2.30: Richard Roche (NUIM). “Neuroeconomics and Time Preferences”
2.30-3.00: Rowena Pecchenino (NUIM). “Becoming: Identity and Spirituality”
3.00 – 3.30: Martin Ryan (UCD). “Time Use and Time Preferences”
3.30-3.45: Coffee
3.45 – 4.15: David Comerford (UCD). “Transport Mode Choice: Decision and Experienced Utility”
4.15 – 4.45: Peter Lunn (ESRI). “What’s it Worth? Can uncertainty in the perception of value explain loss aversion?”
4.45 – 5.15: John O’Doherty (TCD) “Neuroeconomics of human decision making: from simple choice to social interactions”
A one-day conference on Economics and Psychology will take place in NUIM on November 7th (Exact Venue to be confirmed). The purpose of this event is to provide a forum for the discussion of work at the interface of economics, psychology and cognate disciplines such as neuroscience. The event is co-organized by the Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting in Maynooth and the UCD Geary Institute. The International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP) is the relevant international body and we would encourage attendees to consider joining this group. All are welcome and there is no registration fee. Please contact Liam Delaney (Liam.Delaney@ucd.ie ) to confirm attendance.
Programme
10.00 – 10.15: Welcome: Professor Rowena Pecchenino
10.15-10.45: Liam Delaney (UCD). “Psychological and Biological Foundations of Time Preferences”.
10.45-11.15: Orla Doyle (UCD). “Early Childhood Differences in Time Preferences: Evidence from the Millennium Cohort Study”
11.15-11.30: Coffee
11.30 – 12.00: Stephen Kinsella (UL). “Computable and Experimental Economics at UL”
12.00 – 12.30: Mirko Moro (UCD). “Spatial Heterogeneity in Well-Being”
12.30- 1.00: Kevin Denny (UCD). “A continuum of handedness predicts behaviour”
1.00 – 2.00: Lunch
2.00 – 2.30: Richard Roche (NUIM). “Neuroeconomics and Time Preferences”
2.30-3.00: Rowena Pecchenino (NUIM). “Becoming: Identity and Spirituality”
3.00 – 3.30: Martin Ryan (UCD). “Time Use and Time Preferences”
3.30-3.45: Coffee
3.45 – 4.15: David Comerford (UCD). “Transport Mode Choice: Decision and Experienced Utility”
4.15 – 4.45: Peter Lunn (ESRI). “What’s it Worth? Can uncertainty in the perception of value explain loss aversion?”
4.45 – 5.15: John O’Doherty (TCD) “Neuroeconomics of human decision making: from simple choice to social interactions”
HEA Graduate Careers Survey
The HEA and the IRCHSS have set up a Foresight in the Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences (FAHSS) Exercise which has called for 'a destinations report on humanities and social sciences postgraduate and post-doctoral researchers'. To gather data for this report, a graduate careers survey was launched on 8th August 2008 through the Survey Monkey website (the document is available on the HEA website). The survey complements the First Destinations Report carried out annually by the HEA and the survey of awardees currently being carried out by the IRCHSS.
In terms of survey strategy, graduates of higher-education institutions within the Republic of Ireland have been contacted via email through the alumni offices, graduate studies offices, or through nominated contact points within their alma mater. Some institutions have also put a link to the survey on their home page. According to the latest information on the HEA website, 351 graduates have responded to the survey in full or in part.
The FAHSS Exercise has also set up an accompanying "graduate recruitment survey" to examine employers’ attitudes and perceptions of graduates from the arts, humanities, and social sciences. The survey was launched on 19th August 2008, again through the Survey Monkey website. To date, over 350 employers have been contacted via email. "The purpose of this survey is to establish the qualities that graduates from the arts, humanities, and social sciences bring to the work-place and to establish strengths and weaknesses in these graduates from an employer’s perspective."
The FAHSS Exercise is seeking to appoint an analyst to examine the data that has been collected and to write two comprehensive reports outlining the results obtained from the surveys. A tender has been put out for the analysis and submissions are due by Friday 19th September. More information on everything above is available here.
In terms of survey strategy, graduates of higher-education institutions within the Republic of Ireland have been contacted via email through the alumni offices, graduate studies offices, or through nominated contact points within their alma mater. Some institutions have also put a link to the survey on their home page. According to the latest information on the HEA website, 351 graduates have responded to the survey in full or in part.
The FAHSS Exercise has also set up an accompanying "graduate recruitment survey" to examine employers’ attitudes and perceptions of graduates from the arts, humanities, and social sciences. The survey was launched on 19th August 2008, again through the Survey Monkey website. To date, over 350 employers have been contacted via email. "The purpose of this survey is to establish the qualities that graduates from the arts, humanities, and social sciences bring to the work-place and to establish strengths and weaknesses in these graduates from an employer’s perspective."
The FAHSS Exercise is seeking to appoint an analyst to examine the data that has been collected and to write two comprehensive reports outlining the results obtained from the surveys. A tender has been put out for the analysis and submissions are due by Friday 19th September. More information on everything above is available here.
IAREP Conference
I was at the IAREP conference with Kevin and Michael last week, and saw some interesting papers.
Al Roth from Harvard gave the Kahneman lecture, in which he examined how repugnance sometimes constrains transactions and markets. He covered a range of examples, "from slavery and indentured servitude (which once were not as repugnant as they now are) to lending money for interest (which used to be widely repugnant and is now not), and from bans on eating horse-meat in California to bans on dwarf tossing in France." The main application though
was to look at laws against the buying and selling of organs for transplantation. There was also an Irish example (page 25 of Roth's presentation) about article 40 (6,1) in the Irish constitution: "The publication or utterance of blasphemous, seditious, or indecent matter is an offence which shall be punishable in accordance with law."
Piotr Gasparski (Warsaw School of Social Psychology) talked about the preliminary estimate fallacy, or Why We Spend More Than We Planned. The concept is introduced by analogy to the planning fallacy. I'll nominate this paper as the most relevant from IAREP to the upcoming Budget on October 14th.
Daniel Egan (Barclays Wealth) gave a talk on Linking Psychometrically Measured Financial Risk Tolerance With Choice Behaviour. Using a stated choice experiment, he showed that individuals that indicate greater risk tolerance on the Barclays psychometric scale also indicate that they are willing to bear greater risk. Egan also gave a paper on Cross Cultural Variation In Financial Risk Perception And Risk Tolerance. It examined the effect of attitude to risk, risk tolerance and returns expectations on stated portfolio choices. These micro-level factors were shown to account for cross-cultural variation.
Also, the Barclays Insights page is worth looking at. In association with the Economist intelligence Unit, they have produced a report entitled Breaking the Mould: A Question of Personality. The conclusion is that "by creating a picture of investors based on their attitudes to risk, performance, objectives and other measures, behavioural finance is helping to create tailored portfolios that match the psychological profile of each individual."
Tom Eikebrokk gave a paper that he and his wife (Ellen Nyhus) are writing about the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFC). They examined the factor structure of the 12-item CFC scale. "CFC is defined as a stable individual trait describing the extent to which people consider distant versus immediate consequences of their behaviour... Degree of CFC is found associated with behaviour relating to health, academic achievement, environmental and financial behaviour."
The Eikebrokk and Nyhus paper is the first validation study using panel data from a large representative sample (the Dutch DNB Household Survey from the CentERdata). The authors found that a 3-factor version of the scale fits the DNB household data best. They also mentioned an interesting paper by Joiseman et al (2008) which separates the CFC items according to the near and distant future. This is an interesting angle in relation to empirical work on micro-level behaviour such as human capital investment. In other words, it may only be the "distant future" items in the CFC that would pick up the propensity to invest in human capital.
Empar Pons gave a paper on Non-cognitive Traits And The Gender Wage Gap. The paper indicates that "part of the unexplained term that we observe in the traditional human capital analysis may not be due to discrimination but rather caused by the omission of important non-cognitive variables." The paper explores the effect of Locus of Control, Consideration of Future Consequences and the Big-Five Personality Traits.
Finally, Stefana Della Vigna gave the Up and Coming Bright Young Thing Session on The Economics Of The Media: A Behavioral Take. He focused on "how evidence from the field has played a growing role in behavioural economics over the last ten years, and how natural experiments, and in particular the ones using media data, can provide such evidence." He discussed two distinct topics based on recent articles published in the QJE. The first was "persuasion" --- presented using field evidence from the staggered introduction of Fox News in local cable markets in the US (and the effect of this on voting).
The second topic in Della Vigna's talk was the impact of arousal due to exposure to media violence. Della Vigna compared "the level of violent crime on weekends when blockbuster violent movies are released, compared to other weekends (everything else held constant)." The data used was very novel, including an examination of the www.imdb.com movie database! Kevin posted up a NBER paper by Della Vigna on the blog before: Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field, and Michael gave some interesting comments on it. Its now forthcoming in the JEL.
Al Roth from Harvard gave the Kahneman lecture, in which he examined how repugnance sometimes constrains transactions and markets. He covered a range of examples, "from slavery and indentured servitude (which once were not as repugnant as they now are) to lending money for interest (which used to be widely repugnant and is now not), and from bans on eating horse-meat in California to bans on dwarf tossing in France." The main application though
was to look at laws against the buying and selling of organs for transplantation. There was also an Irish example (page 25 of Roth's presentation) about article 40 (6,1) in the Irish constitution: "The publication or utterance of blasphemous, seditious, or indecent matter is an offence which shall be punishable in accordance with law."
Piotr Gasparski (Warsaw School of Social Psychology) talked about the preliminary estimate fallacy, or Why We Spend More Than We Planned. The concept is introduced by analogy to the planning fallacy. I'll nominate this paper as the most relevant from IAREP to the upcoming Budget on October 14th.
Daniel Egan (Barclays Wealth) gave a talk on Linking Psychometrically Measured Financial Risk Tolerance With Choice Behaviour. Using a stated choice experiment, he showed that individuals that indicate greater risk tolerance on the Barclays psychometric scale also indicate that they are willing to bear greater risk. Egan also gave a paper on Cross Cultural Variation In Financial Risk Perception And Risk Tolerance. It examined the effect of attitude to risk, risk tolerance and returns expectations on stated portfolio choices. These micro-level factors were shown to account for cross-cultural variation.
Also, the Barclays Insights page is worth looking at. In association with the Economist intelligence Unit, they have produced a report entitled Breaking the Mould: A Question of Personality. The conclusion is that "by creating a picture of investors based on their attitudes to risk, performance, objectives and other measures, behavioural finance is helping to create tailored portfolios that match the psychological profile of each individual."
Tom Eikebrokk gave a paper that he and his wife (Ellen Nyhus) are writing about the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFC). They examined the factor structure of the 12-item CFC scale. "CFC is defined as a stable individual trait describing the extent to which people consider distant versus immediate consequences of their behaviour... Degree of CFC is found associated with behaviour relating to health, academic achievement, environmental and financial behaviour."
The Eikebrokk and Nyhus paper is the first validation study using panel data from a large representative sample (the Dutch DNB Household Survey from the CentERdata). The authors found that a 3-factor version of the scale fits the DNB household data best. They also mentioned an interesting paper by Joiseman et al (2008) which separates the CFC items according to the near and distant future. This is an interesting angle in relation to empirical work on micro-level behaviour such as human capital investment. In other words, it may only be the "distant future" items in the CFC that would pick up the propensity to invest in human capital.
Empar Pons gave a paper on Non-cognitive Traits And The Gender Wage Gap. The paper indicates that "part of the unexplained term that we observe in the traditional human capital analysis may not be due to discrimination but rather caused by the omission of important non-cognitive variables." The paper explores the effect of Locus of Control, Consideration of Future Consequences and the Big-Five Personality Traits.
Finally, Stefana Della Vigna gave the Up and Coming Bright Young Thing Session on The Economics Of The Media: A Behavioral Take. He focused on "how evidence from the field has played a growing role in behavioural economics over the last ten years, and how natural experiments, and in particular the ones using media data, can provide such evidence." He discussed two distinct topics based on recent articles published in the QJE. The first was "persuasion" --- presented using field evidence from the staggered introduction of Fox News in local cable markets in the US (and the effect of this on voting).
The second topic in Della Vigna's talk was the impact of arousal due to exposure to media violence. Della Vigna compared "the level of violent crime on weekends when blockbuster violent movies are released, compared to other weekends (everything else held constant)." The data used was very novel, including an examination of the www.imdb.com movie database! Kevin posted up a NBER paper by Della Vigna on the blog before: Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field, and Michael gave some interesting comments on it. Its now forthcoming in the JEL.
ESRI Seminar
ESRI Research Seminar
“Work Stress and Health: Current Research and Policy Implications”
Dr Tarani Chandola
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health
University College London
Research suggests that work stress is associated with poorer health and a heightened risk of Cardiovascular disease (CHD) in particular. In this presentation, Dr Tarani Chandola from The Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at University College London will review existing research on this relationship and present data from his research on a large study of British Civil Servants (The Whitehall II Study), which has been ongoing since 1985, to illustrate the mechanisms through which work stress impacts on an individual's risk of CHD and the policy implications that this suggests. The seminar will examine:
- Who has work stress and how do you measure it?
- Is work stress all in your mind?
- How does work stress effect your brain and biology?
- What can you and organisations do about work stress?
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Date and Time: Thursday 11th September 2008, at 4 p.m.
“Work Stress and Health: Current Research and Policy Implications”
Dr Tarani Chandola
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health
University College London
Research suggests that work stress is associated with poorer health and a heightened risk of Cardiovascular disease (CHD) in particular. In this presentation, Dr Tarani Chandola from The Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at University College London will review existing research on this relationship and present data from his research on a large study of British Civil Servants (The Whitehall II Study), which has been ongoing since 1985, to illustrate the mechanisms through which work stress impacts on an individual's risk of CHD and the policy implications that this suggests. The seminar will examine:
- Who has work stress and how do you measure it?
- Is work stress all in your mind?
- How does work stress effect your brain and biology?
- What can you and organisations do about work stress?
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Date and Time: Thursday 11th September 2008, at 4 p.m.
Monday, September 08, 2008
What does income matter?
Income determines what we can consume. We get if from working, from others, from reaping past investments etc., Does it do us any good? A recent paper alluded to in an earlier post attempts to debunk the Easterlin hypothesis. This paper is much more closely aligned to how we traditionally think of income: namely more is better controlling for the effort required to obtain it.
However, there is also a huge literature that attempts to examine more subtle motivations that link income to well-being. There have been many other attempts to explore the well-being pay-off from income. One strand of the literature essentially posits income as a component of a zero-sum game. Reference-dependency is viewed as a key motivation for acquiring income and a key mediator of how much benefit we derive from the income we have. Papers by McBride, Clark and Oswald and others makes this case forcefully. Recent work by Mary Daly and colleagues even claims that such negative reference effects may underpin the link between suicide and income. Senik's paper below makes a slightly more complex point that sometimes it might be good to see your reference group get ahead as it acts as a good sign for your own prospects but the general view in the literature is that seeing people like you getting ahead increases the pressure on you and dampens the well-being increments from increasing levels of income.
McBride Paper
Daly et al Suicide Paper
Senik Paper
As well as reference dependency with respect to others, reference dependency with respect to ourselves through time is also considered in a number of papers as a key aspect of how income enters in to our utility. Burchardt and colleagues have verified the preference for ascending sequences in work using the British Household Panel Survey. This type of work is important as we get to grips with a potential recession in many countries.
Burchardt Paper
As several countries face slowdowns it raises some fundamental questions of how people evaluate their income and convert this evaluation in to more general well-being. Do we process merely absolute income (the literature would say no)? Which reference groups do we compare ourselves to and is there some element of choice in how we do this? How do we evaluate our position through time? Which time periods of our life are given most salience? For example, surely people could simply reason that despite the slowdown they are better off than ten years ago even if worse off than last year? Why would some time-reference points be more salient than others? How do personality and motivation affect the relationship between income fluctuations and well-being fluctuations?
However, there is also a huge literature that attempts to examine more subtle motivations that link income to well-being. There have been many other attempts to explore the well-being pay-off from income. One strand of the literature essentially posits income as a component of a zero-sum game. Reference-dependency is viewed as a key motivation for acquiring income and a key mediator of how much benefit we derive from the income we have. Papers by McBride, Clark and Oswald and others makes this case forcefully. Recent work by Mary Daly and colleagues even claims that such negative reference effects may underpin the link between suicide and income. Senik's paper below makes a slightly more complex point that sometimes it might be good to see your reference group get ahead as it acts as a good sign for your own prospects but the general view in the literature is that seeing people like you getting ahead increases the pressure on you and dampens the well-being increments from increasing levels of income.
McBride Paper
Daly et al Suicide Paper
Senik Paper
As well as reference dependency with respect to others, reference dependency with respect to ourselves through time is also considered in a number of papers as a key aspect of how income enters in to our utility. Burchardt and colleagues have verified the preference for ascending sequences in work using the British Household Panel Survey. This type of work is important as we get to grips with a potential recession in many countries.
Burchardt Paper
As several countries face slowdowns it raises some fundamental questions of how people evaluate their income and convert this evaluation in to more general well-being. Do we process merely absolute income (the literature would say no)? Which reference groups do we compare ourselves to and is there some element of choice in how we do this? How do we evaluate our position through time? Which time periods of our life are given most salience? For example, surely people could simply reason that despite the slowdown they are better off than ten years ago even if worse off than last year? Why would some time-reference points be more salient than others? How do personality and motivation affect the relationship between income fluctuations and well-being fluctuations?
Edward Glaeser on Human Capital
Edward Glaeser, the Harvard Professor whose innovations in urban economics has made him a leading figure in economics, talks below (From Boston Globe) on how he believes that human capital should be at the heart of policy formation and budgetary policy. While you are at it you should look through his IDEAS page.
editorial
http://ideas.repec.org/e/pgl9.html
editorial
http://ideas.repec.org/e/pgl9.html
Irish Budget Called Early
The Irish Budget will be held this year at the earlier time of October 14th for various reasons. In previous years, a group of us used to conduct a pre-budget submission to facilitate some debate among people working on various aspects of economics policy at postgraduate level. As with the fees debate, it makes sense to use the blog at least partly as a forum to contribute some ideas to the policy debate. The purpose of budget blog entries will be to relate the budgetary issues to the academic literature and I would discourage people from issuing political critiques or general statements of personal policy opinion. In particular, relevant articles about education, health, social welfare, cultural, security/crime and other types of spending as well as effects of taxation would be good to have out at this time
A link to last years budget below
http://www.budget.gov.ie/
http://www.taxireland.ie/news/34481.aspx
A link to last years budget below
http://www.budget.gov.ie/
http://www.taxireland.ie/news/34481.aspx
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Naïve Reconstruction Of Macro-economic Causality
At the Rome IAREP conference I talked with the presenter of this paper which sounds really interesting.
Naïve Reconstruction Of Macro-economic Causality
David Leiser, Ronen Aroch
The functioning of the economic system is extremely complex and technical. For its part, the general public is constantly presented with information on economic causality. It is important for its members to assimilate it, whether to further their personal goals or in order to participate advisedly in the democratic process. We presented naïve and economically educated participants with questions of the form: If VARIABLE A increases, how will this affect VARIABLE B ? for all possible combinations of 19 key economic indicators. Naïve participants were willing to commit themselves on most questions, despite their medium to low self-report of understanding the concepts involved. Analysis of the pattern of responses reveals the use of a simple but powerful heuristic: the economic world functions in either a virtuous or a vicious circle. An increase in one good variable will increase the values of other good variables, and decrease those of bad variables. This yields a sense of competence without requiring understanding of the causality involved. The good-begets-good heuristic does not imply the ability to explain causal links. The depth of explanation of economic concepts is low in all segments of the population (Leiser & Drori, 2005), and indeed, the lack of explanatory depth seems to be a general feature of human understanding.
Naïve Reconstruction Of Macro-economic Causality
David Leiser, Ronen Aroch
The functioning of the economic system is extremely complex and technical. For its part, the general public is constantly presented with information on economic causality. It is important for its members to assimilate it, whether to further their personal goals or in order to participate advisedly in the democratic process. We presented naïve and economically educated participants with questions of the form: If VARIABLE A increases, how will this affect VARIABLE B ? for all possible combinations of 19 key economic indicators. Naïve participants were willing to commit themselves on most questions, despite their medium to low self-report of understanding the concepts involved. Analysis of the pattern of responses reveals the use of a simple but powerful heuristic: the economic world functions in either a virtuous or a vicious circle. An increase in one good variable will increase the values of other good variables, and decrease those of bad variables. This yields a sense of competence without requiring understanding of the causality involved. The good-begets-good heuristic does not imply the ability to explain causal links. The depth of explanation of economic concepts is low in all segments of the population (Leiser & Drori, 2005), and indeed, the lack of explanatory depth seems to be a general feature of human understanding.
William Harbaugh
William Harbaugh's website is very worth looking at for those interested in neuroeconomics, child decision making, altruism and related topics
http://harbaugh.uoregon.edu/
http://harbaugh.uoregon.edu/
Thursday, September 04, 2008
There is no Easterlin Paradox!
The Easterlin Paradox is fundamental to the argument that focusing on material well-being does not promote overall well-being beyond a certain point. A new NBER paper argues that the Easterlin paradox simply does not hold. Richer countries are happier even at very high levels of income. We have been looking a lot at this in Ireland and, in general, well-being did decrease during the 1980's economic downturn. The data from 1994-2001 (during the height of the boom) do not show much increase in GHQ-12 measures but there were certainly increases in things like financial satisfaction (e.g. see an early version of a forthcoming paper we did on the topic below). In short, Ireland provides reasonable evidence for what Stevenson and Wolfers are saying though the dramatic increase in suicide during the economic boom is very difficult to explain from the point of view that income increases make people happier.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14282
http://ideas.repec.org/p/ucd/wpaper/200609.html
Betsey Stevenson, Justin Wolfers
NBER Working Paper No. 14282
Issued in August 2008
NBER Program(s): EFG LS ME
---- Abstract -----
The "Easterlin paradox" suggests that there is no link between a society's economic development and its average level of happiness. We re-assess this paradox analyzing multiple rich datasets spanning many decades. Using recent data on a broader array of countries, we establish a clear positive link between average levels of subjective well-being and GDP per capita across countries, and find no evidence of a satiation point beyond which wealthier countries have no further increases in subjective well-being. We show that the estimated relationship is consistent across many datasets and is similar to the relationship between subject well-being and income observed within countries. Finally, examining the relationship between changes in subjective well-being and income over time within countries we find economic growth associated with rising happiness. Together these findings indicate a clear role for absolute income and a more limited role for relative income comparisons in determining happiness.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14282
http://ideas.repec.org/p/ucd/wpaper/200609.html
Betsey Stevenson, Justin Wolfers
NBER Working Paper No. 14282
Issued in August 2008
NBER Program(s): EFG LS ME
---- Abstract -----
The "Easterlin paradox" suggests that there is no link between a society's economic development and its average level of happiness. We re-assess this paradox analyzing multiple rich datasets spanning many decades. Using recent data on a broader array of countries, we establish a clear positive link between average levels of subjective well-being and GDP per capita across countries, and find no evidence of a satiation point beyond which wealthier countries have no further increases in subjective well-being. We show that the estimated relationship is consistent across many datasets and is similar to the relationship between subject well-being and income observed within countries. Finally, examining the relationship between changes in subjective well-being and income over time within countries we find economic growth associated with rising happiness. Together these findings indicate a clear role for absolute income and a more limited role for relative income comparisons in determining happiness.
Monday, September 01, 2008
Irish Skeptics Society Talk
See below from the Irish Skeptics Society Site. Thanks to Daragh (one of our undergrad interns!) for pointing this out
http://www.irishskeptics.net/
"Our next lecture will take place on Wednesday September 10th at 8.00 pm in the Science Gallery, Trinity College Dublin (www.sciencegallery.org). The gallery is located just inside the Pearse Street gate close to the junction with Westland Row. We are very pleased to be associated with the science gallery and hope you enjoy this new venue.
The speaker on the night will be social psychologist Dr. Mick O’Connell, Senior Lecturer in the School of Psychology, UCD. The title of the presentation is “Is Ireland an intolerant society? And can education change intolerant attitudes?” Dr. O’Connell has sent the following abstract:
“ireland’s recent substantial demographic changes have coincided with - or more likely produced - a rise in anti-minority/immigrant attitudes. One of the key predictors of overt measures of prejudice is education, i.e. where people are more educated they appear less likely to agree with hostile statements towards ethnic minorities or immigrants. Does this mean that one can ’solve’ problems of intergroup hostility via large doses of liberal education? One must be sceptical since education may simply lead people to redirect their intolerance, or to hide it with greater conviction as they fear being labelled as politically incorrect. While the views of the well-educated in Ireland and across Europe remain consistently more tolerant than those of the less well-educated even in the face of more highly skilled immigration, the better-educated or more skilled nationals have greater inbuilt protection against economic rivalry with immigrants”.
Admission on the night (to defray costs) will be 3 euro for members and 6 euro for non-members"
http://www.irishskeptics.net/
"Our next lecture will take place on Wednesday September 10th at 8.00 pm in the Science Gallery, Trinity College Dublin (www.sciencegallery.org). The gallery is located just inside the Pearse Street gate close to the junction with Westland Row. We are very pleased to be associated with the science gallery and hope you enjoy this new venue.
The speaker on the night will be social psychologist Dr. Mick O’Connell, Senior Lecturer in the School of Psychology, UCD. The title of the presentation is “Is Ireland an intolerant society? And can education change intolerant attitudes?” Dr. O’Connell has sent the following abstract:
“ireland’s recent substantial demographic changes have coincided with - or more likely produced - a rise in anti-minority/immigrant attitudes. One of the key predictors of overt measures of prejudice is education, i.e. where people are more educated they appear less likely to agree with hostile statements towards ethnic minorities or immigrants. Does this mean that one can ’solve’ problems of intergroup hostility via large doses of liberal education? One must be sceptical since education may simply lead people to redirect their intolerance, or to hide it with greater conviction as they fear being labelled as politically incorrect. While the views of the well-educated in Ireland and across Europe remain consistently more tolerant than those of the less well-educated even in the face of more highly skilled immigration, the better-educated or more skilled nationals have greater inbuilt protection against economic rivalry with immigrants”.
Admission on the night (to defray costs) will be 3 euro for members and 6 euro for non-members"
Undergraduate Research Experience
We have discussed on a number of occassions the role of research experience in the development of programmes for undergraduates in different disciplines.
Below is the first draft of a document we are working on that looks at international experience in the development of undergraduate research experience programmes. Comments online or offline would be very much appreciated.
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/ldelaney/Undergraduate Research Experience report 5.pdf
Below is the first draft of a document we are working on that looks at international experience in the development of undergraduate research experience programmes. Comments online or offline would be very much appreciated.
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/ldelaney/Undergraduate Research Experience report 5.pdf
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