Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Graduates: the measure of power
Once upon a time it was a country's battleships or battalions that determined its power. Now, apparently it's a country's graduates.
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Economists in love
Apologies if I have just ruined your breakfast. The recent book Spousonomics ("using economics to master love marriage and dirty dishes) by Paula Szuchman & Jenny Anderson now has a blog. Yeah, who hasn't ? One feature of the blog is short interviews with economists on their love life. Sounds horrific doesn't it? Lets just hope there isn't a movie, seeing Larry Summers in The Social Network was bad enough.
Links 1/03/2011
1. Choice overload is an important concept in the recent literature on consumer decision making. A review from last year in the Journal of Consumer Research is worth reading on this.
2. Many consumers believe 36 months is longer than three years - press release based on study in Journal of Consumer Research
3. A really important paper in PNAS showing that childhood self-control predicts future health, controlling for a very wide range of potential confounds
4. Journal of Health Economics paper by Ikeda et al showing that obesity is linked to hyperbolic discounting
5. Meltzer and Jena Journal of Health Economics paper on wages and the intensity of exercise
2. Many consumers believe 36 months is longer than three years - press release based on study in Journal of Consumer Research
3. A really important paper in PNAS showing that childhood self-control predicts future health, controlling for a very wide range of potential confounds
4. Journal of Health Economics paper by Ikeda et al showing that obesity is linked to hyperbolic discounting
5. Meltzer and Jena Journal of Health Economics paper on wages and the intensity of exercise
Wall Street Journal on Election Outcomes
Morgan Kelly's famous 'kindness of strangers' article in the Times predicted political upheaval in Ireland as a result of the economic upheaval.
There isn't the same data-based support for this than for the correct predictions he made throughout the economic decline but few would dismiss his predictions after the last couple of years. The fact that this did not happen during this election is not a refutation as he is making a medium-term prediction. The Wall Street Journal carry a similar theme today, arguing that the bailout terms may lead to the current government getting hammered at the next polls unless they are modified. I go along with the analysis that the interest rate is too high. I think this fuels cynicism about the intentions of European intervention among many in Ireland. But I really wonder whether we are seeing evidence of a growing political shift based on economic unrest.
This is one I would like to see a political scientist address but what I saw over the weekend was a rout of a political party that had been in power for too long and which oversaw an economic collapse, and the transfer of power to two centrist parties. I think there are many conceivable scenarious where Sinn Fein would have gained seats and they were unlucky not to do so in the last election. One open question is whether there are the seeds of something like what Morgan Kelly was suggesting in the disparate group of independents that have been elected but for now its really hard to see anything by way of hard-right, anti-immigrant or anti-travellor sentiment in the about-to-be-formed Dail. I hope Morgan turns out to be wrong and I think he will be forgiven one bum prediction given his prophecy in all his substantive predictions.
As ordinary people start to realise that this thing is not only happening, it is happening to them, we can see anxiety giving way to the first upwellings of an inchoate rage and despair that will transform Irish politics along the lines of the Tea Party in America. Within five years, both Civil War parties are likely to have been brushed aside by a hard right, anti-Europe, anti-Traveller party that, inconceivable as it now seems, will leave us nostalgic for the, usually, harmless buffoonery of Biffo, Inda, and their chums.
There isn't the same data-based support for this than for the correct predictions he made throughout the economic decline but few would dismiss his predictions after the last couple of years. The fact that this did not happen during this election is not a refutation as he is making a medium-term prediction. The Wall Street Journal carry a similar theme today, arguing that the bailout terms may lead to the current government getting hammered at the next polls unless they are modified. I go along with the analysis that the interest rate is too high. I think this fuels cynicism about the intentions of European intervention among many in Ireland. But I really wonder whether we are seeing evidence of a growing political shift based on economic unrest.
It was a "revolution lite," swapping one center-right party for another. But there will be other elections, and there are signs that many Irish voters are starting to contemplate more radical responses to the country's economic problems.
This is one I would like to see a political scientist address but what I saw over the weekend was a rout of a political party that had been in power for too long and which oversaw an economic collapse, and the transfer of power to two centrist parties. I think there are many conceivable scenarious where Sinn Fein would have gained seats and they were unlucky not to do so in the last election. One open question is whether there are the seeds of something like what Morgan Kelly was suggesting in the disparate group of independents that have been elected but for now its really hard to see anything by way of hard-right, anti-immigrant or anti-travellor sentiment in the about-to-be-formed Dail. I hope Morgan turns out to be wrong and I think he will be forgiven one bum prediction given his prophecy in all his substantive predictions.
Ideas for Summer and November
This is mostly for people around the Institute but suggestions welcome more generally. We will run the internship programme in July and August. Also, the fourth annual session on Economics and Psychology will take place in November. Please get in touch if you have ideas for speakers, journal clubs, policy sessions etc,. Last summer, we ran something on pretty much every day that the interns were here, whether a formal seminar or just things like journal clubs, introduction to studies and so on. It would be good to get something lively going again this year.
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