ESRI Seminar: Stability of Economic Voting in Ireland

ESRI Seminar: "Stability of Economic Voting in Ireland"

Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2
Date: 16/09/2010
Time: 4 p.m.
Speaker: Michael Marsh (TCD)

This paper takes a long run perspective to examine the stability of a popularity function and possible contextual reasons for that stability/instability. It uses new data to estimate a popularity function for the dominant Irish party, Fianna Fail, (FF) for the period 1974-2010, a much longer period than is covered in any previous analysis.

While FF has remained the dominant party over this period, the economy has run the full gamut from bust to boom and back again. The authors find that the effect of objective economic indicators and subjective perceptions of the economy is differential over whether FF is in government or in opposition.

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The Arctic Monkeys on Behavioural Economics

The Arctic Monkeys’ third single, Leave Before The Lights Come On, was released as a music video in August 2006, only months after the band’s debut album. The video, filmed in Sheffield’s Cultural Industries quarter, features English actors Kate Ashfield and Paddy Considine, shown below (HT: The Inspiration Room).

Ashfield’s character opens the music video standing on the edge of a tall building, apparently preparing to jump. On the pavement below Considine’s character is halted in his tracks by a shoe falling from above. He races up the stairs to coax the woman back from the edge. There's more to the story than this, but the premise is that Ashfield is about to engage in irrational behaviour. Or is she? Alex Turner has the following to say on the matter - the opening lines from the song:

Well this is a good idea,
You wouldn’t do it if it wasn’t,
You wouldn’t do it if it wasn’t one?

Watch the video here.