Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881

Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881

Demography
DOI 10.1007/s13524-012-0141-9

Alan Fernihough

Abstract

Recent empirical research questions the validity of using Malthusian theory in preindustrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650–1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region: Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages, and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a Malthusian economy wherein population growth decreased living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. However, these results also demonstrate how the system is best characterized as one of weak homeostasis. Furthermore, there is no evidence of Boserupian effects given that increases in population failed to spur any sustained technological progress.

Keywords: Economic history . Demographic economics . Malthus

http://www.springerlink.com/content/u451p72938072xg8/

Ungated version:

http://ideas.repec.org/p/ucn/wpaper/201037.html

Population Association of America – Call for Papers

Dear PAA Colleagues,

Reminder – The deadline for submissions for the PAA 2013 Annual Meeting is September 21, 2012. The PAA Annual Meeting will be held April 11-13, in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Call for Papers (PDF) is posted on the 2013 Annual Meeting Program Website. Submissions are made online.

Information is also posted for:

Travel Awards
Member-Initiated Meetings
Advertisements, Book displays and Exhibits

The PAA Board of Directors wishes to encourage broad participation in the Annual Meeting. If you would like to serve as a session Chair or Discussant at the 2013 Annual Meeting, please indicate your interest by sending an email to stephanie@popassoc.org.
In order to appear on the program, presenters must register for the meeting. Registration fees are posted on the PAA website.  Registration will open in January 2013.

Check the PAA website throughout the year for updated meeting information.

Thank you,
PAA 2013 Annual Meeting Services

Session Topics:
Fertility, Family Planning, Sexual Behavior, and Reproductive Health
Marriage, Family, Households, and Unions
Children and Youth
Health and Mortality
Race, Ethnicity, and Gender
Migration and Population Distribution
Economy, Labor Force, Education, and Inequality
Population, Development, and Environment
Population and Aging
Data and Methods
Applied Demography

Details:
http://paa2013.princeton.edu/

Demography and Inequality

 As discussed in this week's Economist:

As a country’s birthrate declines, people of working age make up a larger share of the population, which can fuel economic improvement. But a new study by Harvard School of Public Health researchers finds that lower birthrates raise income inequality within countries in the short-term; the birth rate of the wealthy begins to decline first and, according to the researchers, they are the first to reap the benefits of demographic change.

Microeconomic Foundations of the Demographic Dividend

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Jocelyn E. Finlay

Abstract

The potential economic returns to the demographic transition are high. As countries move from a steady state with high mortality and high fertility to an equilibrium with low mortality and fewer children, lower dependency ratios, higher investment in human and physical capital as well as increased female labor force participation contribute to economic growth. In this paper, we analyze the demographic transition at the household level, investigating the distributional patterns of the economic and welfare benefits associated with the demographic transition across socioeconomic groups within countries and over time. We find large differences in the effects of the demographic transition across socioeconomic status (SES) groups in the early stages of the demographic transition, but also substantial behavioral change across all groups during phases of rapid fertility decline, so that the long-run effects of the demographic transition on inequality remain ambiguous.

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2012/PGDA_WP_93.pdf

http://www.economist.com/node/21560247

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/08/demography-and-inequality

The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists

Guinnane, Timothy W. 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists." Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589–614.

 
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstanding of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work. (JEL I12, J13, N30)

http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/657de1cecd3e4cef9751b9e7df2c3287/dc_the-historical-fertility-transition.pdf

Population Association of America 2012

The annual PAA conference took place recently in San Francisco. This is comparable in size and scope to the AEA and is mainly focused on demography but also covers research in economics, ageing, and development (amongst others). Over 200 sessions were organised, the topics being:

Fertility, Family Planning, Sexual Behaviour, and Reproductive Health
Marriage, Family, Households, and Unions
Children and Youth
Health and Mortality
Race, Ethnicity, and Gender
Migration and Urbanization
Economy, Labour Force, Education, and Inequality
Population, Development, and Environment
Population and Aging
Data and Methods
Applied Demography

All papers are available for download on the PAA website.

http://paa2012.princeton.edu/SessionsByTopic.aspx

Some highlights:

The Economics of Fertility
New Evidence on School Reforms and Child Outcomes
Longevity and Life Expectancy

There were two sessions chaired by Richard Easterlin:

Happiness and Economic and Social Well-Being
Happiness in International Perspective

Postfamine stature and socioeconomic status in Ireland

Postfamine stature and socioeconomic status in Ireland

American Journal of Human Biology, Volume 20, Issue 6, pages 726–731, November/December 2008

Kristin Young, John H. Relethford, Michael H. Crawford

Abstract

Previous research has documented socioeconomic stratification of secular trend in height in historical populations. Using data from 4,900 males and 1,430 females born between 1840 and 1910 collected as part of the Harvard Anthropological Survey of Ireland (1934–1936), this study examined the secular changes in postfamine Ireland using several socioeconomic variables, including: occupation, migration, education, siblings, birthplace, and occupation of father and mother's father. Correlations were also calculated between height and various historical economic indices. Significant differences in the height of Irish males were found by occupation, education, and socioeconomic status of father and maternal grandfather. Males employed in agriculture, or whose fathers or grandfathers were so employed, were significantly taller than other males. For the smaller female sample, only occupation and grandfather's socioeconomic status had a significant impact on height. An inverse correlation was also found between the British Cost of Living Index (BCL) and male heights. Our results suggest that availability of resources plays an important role in the overall nutritional status reflected in terminal adult height.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajhb.20807/abstract

The bright side of life expectancy?

This is a nice graph which illustrates effectively the variation in male life expectancy: how many years a newborn baby boy can currently expect to live.
Actually, no, its a horrible graph because it shows that in many parts of the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa, people don't live much beyond 40, about half what we can expect in rich countries.
For the raw data & the graph for females see here.

Two New Papers On Malthus

As if we needed any reminding of it in this climate, economics is often known as the “dismal science”. Malthus is largely to blame for this unfortunate term, thanks to his pessimistic theories on the nature of population growth and mortality. In a simple Malthusian world, an increase in wages increases population. This only results in an increase in mortality rates, ultimately returning society to its original equilibrium with no permanent increase in welfare.

Two recent papers by UCD economists re-examine this issue. Cormac Ó’Gráda and Morgan Kelly (Living Standards and Mortality since the Middle Ages) find that all strata of English society, including the nobility, were affected by food shortages before the Black Death. The relationship between food prices and mortality disappears in the mid 17th century (although not in London), but then reappears in the early 18th century. Interestingly (given Malthus’ objections to the Poor Laws), the authors suggest that social welfare had a part to play in this. This paper is also discussed on the Economic Logic blog.

Research in this area has tended to focus on England; however we know that the UK was exceptional for several reasons. Alan Fernihough (Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy 1650-1881) examines the evidence for Italy. He finds support for the existence of Malthusian checks into the late 1800s. Both papers are relevant for the debate on the stages of economic growth (e.g. Galor and Weil, Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond).