Links this week from me, Phil, Chris & Leo.
1. Krynski & Tenenbaum (2007), The Role of Causality in Judgment Under Uncertainty, Journal of Experimental Psychology
Abstract:
Leading accounts of judgement under uncertainty evaluate performance within purely statistical frameworks, holding people to the standards of classical Bayesian or frequentist norms. The authors argue that these frameworks have limited ability to explain the success and flexibility of people’s real-world judgments and propose an alternative normative framework based on Bayesian inferences over causal models. Deviations from traditional norms of judgment, such as base-rate neglect, may then be explained in terms of a mismatch
between the statistics given to people and the causal models they intuitively construct to support
probabilistic reasoning. Four experiments show that when a clear mapping can be established from given
statistics to the parameters of an intuitive causal model, people are more likely to use the statistics
appropriately, and that when the classical and causal Bayesian norms differ in their prescriptions,
people’s judgments are more consistent with causal Bayesian norms
2. Why the Sleep-Deprived Crave Junk Food and Buy Higher Calorie Foods
3. Harvard Law School's Food Law and Policy Clinic co-authors report on food date labeling and food waste
4. A Textbook Pre-Crash Bubble
5. LRB book review on The Battle of Bretton Woods
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