Discussions of Irish unemployment generally focus on the standard ILO unemployment rate, currently 14.3%, and youth unemployment rates, for example 27.7% for those aged 20-24. However these rates are merely a lower bound for the excess labour supply that currently exists.
Similarly to the Bureau of Labour Statistics in the US, the CSO produces a number of alternative measures to the ILO unemployment rate. These are contained in Table S7 here (this table is not contained in the usual QNHS release). The alternative measures are:
S1: Unemployed plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.
S2: Unemployed plus marginally attached plus others not in education who want work as a percentage of the Labour Force plus marginally attached plus others not in education who want work.
S3: Unemployed plus marginally attached plus others not in education who want work plus underemployed part-time workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus marginally attached plus others not in education who want work. From Q3 2008 part-time underemployment was calculated in a new way, by removing the condition that the respondent be actively looking for an additional or replacement job.
These rates are shown in the following figure (click to enlarge).
So under S3, the widest measure, unemployment is currently 24% and steadily increasing. The individual elements of S3 are shown in Table 1A of the QNHS; underemployment appears to be the main driver of the measure at present.
When this is combined with the skills lost by those who are unemployed, the experience forgone by those who would have jobs in times of “normal” employment levels and the psychological costs incurred by the long-term unemployed, we can see that the standard unemployment rate falls short of describing the true extent of losses due to unemployment.
Cross-posted at http://irisheconthoughts.wordpress.com/.
Excellent, thanks Daniel. Welcome to the blog.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. I couldn't find a definition in S7 of "discouraged worker" or "marginally attached". Any clues?
ReplyDeleteWorth thinking about putting together a resource portal on unemployment in Ireland in terms of encouraging research.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Liam. A set of resources would be a great step - I'm just starting to do some research with a view to a PhD in the area and it's very hard to know where to start. The recent ESRI paper was a goldmine in terms of citations.
ReplyDeleteKevin, the CSO are surprisingly bad at explaining these measures - it takes an effort to even find the numbers. I'd be inclined to follow BLS definitions. (http://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm)
Discouraged workers: Persons not in the labor force who want and are available for a job and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but who are not currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify.
Marginally attached workers: Persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached.
These defnitions fit if you look at the small jump between ILO and S1 for discouraged workers (the subset) and the larger jump to S2 when the marginally attached (the full set) are included although they still aren't very clear. I'm going to drop the CSO an email and see if they can come up with something better.
you should develop a paper for the ISNE on this Dan
ReplyDeleteRe Kevin's comment, have recevied the following from the CSO (the text layout is a little messy):
ReplyDelete---------------
Specifically, in the context of the QNHS 'Discouraged Workers' are
respondents who are
- Not in employment,
- Are not looking for work and have not found a job to begin in the future
- Would like a job
- Who select options 6,7,8 or 9 to the following question:
Which of the following reasons best describes why you are not seeking work?
1. Currently in school/college or other education or training
2. Looking after children or ill, disabled or elderly adults
3. Other personal or family reasons
4. Own illness or disability
5. Retired
6. You think you lack the necessary education, skills, experience
7. You think that employers believe you are too young/old
8. You have looked in the past but couldn't find any work
9. You believe no work is available
10. You do not hold a work permit
11. No transport available to job
12. It would not be financially rewarding enough to work.
13. Other reason
Again, in the context of the QNHS 'Marginally Attached Workers' are
respondents who:
- Not in employment
- Are looking for work
- Are available to work
- Have not yes to any of the job-search methods as asked in the QNHS
---------------
I would take casual definitions as a discouraged worker being someone who wants to work but gives up because they think they won't be able to find a job and a marginally attached worker as one who claims to be searching but in reality probably is discouraged too. The reply also linked me to a new eurostat release in this area (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-10112011-AP/EN/3-10112011-AP-EN.PDF) which I'll probably take a look at over on my blog this weekend.