Edward Leamer, a well-known econometrician takes a step back to ask a fundamental question. he finds that not enough has yet gone wrong in the US to meet the historical pattern of what a recession should look like. in the unlikely event that any macro-people read this blog you can tell us what all this implies for this side of the world. It certainly contains the most references to pornography that i have seen in a forecasting paper in a long while so at least the people who come on to the blog looking for magic mushrooms will have something to read (from the stat counter, it seems that our post on magic mushrooms scientific literature generates a lot of search hits from people searching for magic mushrooms in Ireland - you can supply your own joking comment!)
here (from the forecasting group site)
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