tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post4654867271596507230..comments2024-03-09T10:26:48.789+00:00Comments on economics, psychology, policy: Loss aversion in penalty shootoutsEmma Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11466193733741012673noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-38597312959535505822014-07-17T13:33:21.976+00:002014-07-17T13:33:21.976+00:00A possible confound: teams that are shoot to win a...A possible confound: teams that are shoot to win are by definition ahead of the other team, therefore (presumably) better at taking penalties. Thus one would expect them to do better. Teams that miss and lose are, equivalently, worse.<br /><br />I imagine it would be possible to design the data analysis to control for his, but the implication of the simple stat is that this hasn't been done. Any ideas?Leigh Caldwellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16150868700502562500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-85060213828715222262014-07-15T09:51:59.003+00:002014-07-15T09:51:59.003+00:00Here's the data source for anyone interested i...Here's the data source for anyone interested in following up on it<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_penalty_shoot-outsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10290073721086163656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-18442055295177931052014-07-15T09:05:22.793+00:002014-07-15T09:05:22.793+00:00Wonder are the figures right. Looking at the last ...Wonder are the figures right. Looking at the last penalty across the 26 shootouts in the World Cup 15 were won by penalties scored and 11 were won by a final missed penalty. This doesn't consider penalties that were missed to win or scored to avoid losing but the contrast doesn't seem as stark.Michael99https://www.blogger.com/profile/18218444900545461083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-25538084650491396682014-07-14T18:44:18.598+00:002014-07-14T18:44:18.598+00:00Does the perspective actually matter? When you sub...Does the perspective actually matter? When you substitute the goalkeeper for the shooter, the statistics reverse but so does the win/loss. The left column becomes "percentage of saves to avoid a loss" and the right column becomes "percentage of saves to secure a win", or "par" and "birdie" in the gold parlance.<br /><br />Once again we see that the individual in the high pressure situation fairs poorly.john cochranenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-51786187782324281132014-07-11T07:33:41.008+00:002014-07-11T07:33:41.008+00:00That's a good point Greg. I havent seen analys...That's a good point Greg. I havent seen analysis that broke down missing penalties into "missed by player / saved by keeper", so there might be some insight to be mined there. I would still guess that any 'pressure' effect is greater on the person taking the shot rather than the keeper - noone really expects the latter to make a save. In contrast, Baggio said he felt haunted for years after missing the final penalty in the 1994 World Cup Final.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10290073721086163656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-73031437016988241652014-07-10T21:25:53.466+00:002014-07-10T21:25:53.466+00:00You're looking at the football/soccer phenom f...You're looking at the football/soccer phenom from the perspective of the shooter but perhaps the goalkeeper's outlook-- identical to that of the putter, no?--has a bigger impact.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07189248883607694576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-1265105960873005992014-07-10T09:35:41.255+00:002014-07-10T09:35:41.255+00:00David,
I think youre probably remembering the sta...David,<br /><br />I think youre probably remembering the stat from Soccernomics saying that 60% of the time, the team going first in a penalty shootout wins. I dont have the book to hand but that figure is apparently from a sample of 129 shootouts, which seems small. This website looks at a much larger sample of 689 shootouts and find the team going first only has a 52% chance of winning: http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.fr/2012/07/soccernomics-and-penalty-shootouts.html<br /><br />To be fair that person applies the same weights for a shootout in a World Cup final or a Johnson Paint Trophy game, which don't seem equivalent in terms of the pressure on the penalty-takers.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10290073721086163656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-53631225588541231502014-07-10T08:56:17.434+00:002014-07-10T08:56:17.434+00:00Interesting. I would suggest its something to do w...Interesting. I would suggest its something to do with the nature of the contest/competition. A penalty shootout is head-to-head. Score and you win and eliminate your opponent. Make a birdie putt and you increase your chances of winning, but do not definitively win the contest. A better comparison might be between putts to win or tie a golf tournament, regardless of whether they were for birdie or par.<br />I think I read/heard somewhere that most penalty shootouts are won by the team going first - since this is determined by chance rather than skill it suggests that pressure has real effects on penalty taking, since when you get to the 4th penalty (sudden death) there is greater pressure on the team shooting second.<br /><br />So last nights result was an anomaly - except we all know the Dutch hate penalty shootouts!David Maddennoreply@blogger.com