tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post3065676981470893986..comments2024-03-09T10:26:48.789+00:00Comments on economics, psychology, policy: Terror Alerts on EuropeEmma Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11466193733741012673noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-59081582814875599712010-10-05T11:30:11.047+00:002010-10-05T11:30:11.047+00:00I have heard the argument made about some economis...I have heard the argument made about some economists in Ireland. As you acknowledge, it is absolutely incorrect when made about most of them. People warning about the massive losses we are incurring by bailing out insolvent banks are pointing to a very important event that will occur with very high probability and cost every single one of us a lot of money and perhaps even a big chunk of our national sovereignty. <br /><br />I agree with you on restraining all cynicism when it comes to why these announcements are made. These guys are operating in very changing and complex environments and risk enormous reputational consequences if they fail to flag something that is about to happen. The same is the case with people charged with protecting public health against viruses and toxins. It is a tough job and difficult to know where to draw the line. But as individual punters, we have to try to block out some of this stuff or life will be a series of anxious episodes.Liam Delaneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04905424104233324535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38545607.post-59205515687403105152010-10-05T09:42:59.385+00:002010-10-05T09:42:59.385+00:00I recently heard the expression "trading in f...I recently heard the expression "trading in fear" applied to a well known Irish economist. I thought it was slightly unfair when applied to him but it certainly applies to some and indeed when you think about it many people make their living huckstering fear to the ignorant.<br /><br />I've no idea what American policy is trying to accomplish with these announcement but i imagine such news isn't bad for business in the dwindling Florida or Michigan resorts. Cynicism aside there was one argument extended along the lines that such announcement would 'wrong foot' the budding terrorist - i.e., we know what your planning..<br /><br />On the main point however, one caveat I have with your argument is that it is illogical to reassure people. The distinction between risk and uncertainty shouldn't be overlooked. we can calculate the probability of car accidents cause we have precedent and frequency. Terror attacks on the other hand cannot be reliably predicted - i.e., must have a large standard error. In this sense its spurious to suggest a low-probability when in reality the probability is unknown, or cannot be reliably estimated.Peter Carneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15551314243423821313noreply@blogger.com