ESRI Seminar: "Stability of Economic Voting in Ireland"
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2
Time: 4 p.m.
Speaker: Michael Marsh (TCD)
This paper takes a long run perspective to examine the stability of a popularity function and possible contextual reasons for that stability/instability. It uses new data to estimate a popularity function for the dominant Irish party, Fianna Fail, (FF) for the period 1974-2010, a much longer period than is covered in any previous analysis.
While FF has remained the dominant party over this period, the economy has run the full gamut from bust to boom and back again. The authors find that the effect of objective economic indicators and subjective perceptions of the economy is differential over whether FF is in government or in opposition.