Saturday, February 07, 2009

Lecture on Judgment Heuristics and Biases

Below is a recent lecture on judgment, heuristics and biases. It gives a brief overview on the relationship of this topic to textbook models of choice under uncertainty and value. The lecture: outlines what is meant by heuristics; discusses theories of why they may be adaptive; outlines the idea of bias and how this relates to heuristics; examines the main Kahneman and Tversky literature; outlines experimental literature on availability, representativeness and anchoring; examines overconfidence and planning fallacy; examines the role of emotions in guiding probability judgments and risk perception; discusses limitations of the literature on heuristics and biases; discusses of implications of use of heuristics for economic theory and policy.

As usual, get in touch if you are interested in this stuff or in applications.

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